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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730d)

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$10,288
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$288)
+2.88%
2-Year ROI
30.3%
Win Rate
31,197
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-3.8%
1 Month
-7.5%
3 Months
-6.0%
6 Months
-6.1%
YTD
-5.7%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$284,652,142
26,807 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$14,718,868
4,390 trades
Crypto Fees
$36,797
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 RIVN 36 9🧊 +109.02% $10,000 $20,902 265 36% - +$10,902 -33.5% 10.9h ✓ -
2 PLTR 41 9🧊 +104.22% $10,000 $20,422 263 29% - +$10,422 -23.6% 12.0h ✓ -
3 SOFI 38 9🧊 +90.50% $10,000 $19,050 254 35% - +$9,050 -22.8% 11.5h ✓ -
4 HOOD 40 9🧊 +87.37% $10,000 $18,737 262 33% - +$8,737 -21.5% 10.9h ✓ -
5 PANW 56 20🧊 +83.77% $10,000 $18,377 259 36% - +$8,377 -10.2% 10.2h ✓ -
6 GME 35 45 +77.30% $10,000 $17,730 280 29% - +$7,730 -22.2% 8.2h ✓ -
7 SMCI 28 70🔥 +73.75% $10,000 $17,375 272 28% - +$7,375 -43.0% 10.0h ✓ -
8 SCHW 62 9🧊 +65.82% $10,000 $16,582 256 40% - +$6,582 -6.9% 10.9h ✓ -
9 MARA 27 25 +63.94% $10,000 $16,394 275 31% - +$6,394 -35.1% 9.9h ✓ -
10 CRWD 30 61🔥 +59.12% $10,000 $15,912 247 35% - +$5,912 -20.9% 11.7h ✓ -
11 GS 49 32 +57.28% $10,000 $15,728 265 35% - +$5,728 -8.5% 10.1h ✓ -
12 RIOT 27 41 +54.28% $10,000 $15,428 260 31% - +$5,428 -34.2% 9.1h ✓ -
13 ARKK 37 36 +50.33% $10,000 $15,033 262 33% - +$5,033 -13.9% 11.5h ✓ -
14 WMT 52 7🧊 +48.40% $10,000 $14,840 256 34% - +$4,840 -6.4% 14.1h ✓ -
15 LLY 33 9🧊 +47.95% $10,000 $14,795 268 35% - +$4,795 -13.5% 10.7h ✓ -
16 AMGN 52 24🧊 +46.20% $10,000 $14,620 274 36% - +$4,620 -5.9% 10.1h ✓ -
17 USO 35 59🔥 +45.90% $10,000 $14,590 257 37% - +$4,590 -11.7% 10.8h ✓ -
18 XLK 37 43 +45.82% $10,000 $14,582 253 37% - +$4,582 -13.1% 10.5h ✓ -
19 LCID 26 9 +44.74% $10,000 $14,474 269 26% - +$4,474 -23.9% 10.4h ✓ -
20 PM 55 7🧊 +43.86% $10,000 $14,386 256 30% - +$4,386 -4.1% 12.3h ✓ -
21 WFC 33 18 +36.48% $10,000 $13,648 262 35% - +$3,648 -10.6% 11.2h ✓ -
22 UVXY 22 7 +35.32% $10,000 $13,532 282 27% - +$3,532 -23.5% 7.4h ✓ -
23 GLD 43 9🧊 +34.89% $10,000 $13,489 253 34% - +$3,489 -6.1% 12.6h ✓ -
24 MRK 29 9 +34.87% $10,000 $13,487 261 35% - +$3,487 -15.0% 11.4h ✓ -
25 CSCO 42 9🧊 +34.44% $10,000 $13,444 262 37% - +$3,444 -5.8% 11.6h ✓ -
26 XOM 36 42 +30.65% $10,000 $13,065 265 31% - +$3,065 -7.7% 11.2h ✓ -
27 VRTX 30 9🧊 +28.44% $10,000 $12,844 270 33% - +$2,844 -9.6% 11.3h ✓ -
28 NFLX 26 6 +27.50% $10,000 $12,750 261 37% - +$2,750 -13.6% 11.4h ✓ -
29 JPM 30 9🧊 +27.11% $10,000 $12,711 263 31% - +$2,711 -9.6% 10.5h ✓ -
30 RBLX 22 81🔥 +25.99% $10,000 $12,599 268 34% - +$2,599 -23.0% 10.9h ✓ -
31 CVX 27 35 +24.69% $10,000 $12,469 263 32% - +$2,469 -10.7% 11.2h ✓ -
32 INTC 20 67🔥 +24.33% $10,000 $12,433 277 29% - +$2,433 -21.5% 7.8h ✓ -
33 GOOGL 21 9 +21.90% $10,000 $12,190 261 36% - +$2,190 -22.4% 10.5h ✓ -
34 SLV 24 9 +21.31% $10,000 $12,131 258 32% - +$2,131 -14.1% 11.3h ✓ -
35 PEP 31 9🧊 +19.76% $10,000 $11,976 259 35% - +$1,976 -6.0% 11.3h ✓ -
36 MA 24 9 +16.55% $10,000 $11,655 272 30% - +$1,655 -9.3% 9.0h ✓ -
37 AXP 20 5 +16.20% $10,000 $11,620 263 32% - +$1,620 -17.9% 10.5h ✓ -
38 SQQQ 17 7 +14.57% $10,000 $11,457 264 29% - +$1,457 -27.4% 9.4h ✓ -
39 BAC 19 5 +13.91% $10,000 $11,391 257 35% - +$1,391 -19.3% 10.2h ✓ -
40 IWM 23 3 +13.67% $10,000 $11,367 261 31% - +$1,367 -8.0% 9.6h ✓ -
41 SNOW 16 9 +13.39% $10,000 $11,339 268 31% - +$1,339 -21.1% 10.3h ✓ -
42 CRM 17 7 +11.99% $10,000 $11,199 273 30% - +$1,199 -15.0% 9.6h ✓ -
43 C 17 18 +11.15% $10,000 $11,115 260 35% - +$1,115 -16.6% 10.1h ✓ -
44 SLB 17 32 +11.06% $10,000 $11,106 264 35% - +$1,106 -17.0% 9.5h ✓ -
45 META 15 32 +9.43% $10,000 $10,943 269 31% - +$943 -28.5% 9.8h ✓ -
46 DKNG 15 6 +9.35% $10,000 $10,935 273 29% - +$935 -25.0% 11.5h ✓ -
47 QQQ 19 30 +9.28% $10,000 $10,928 253 33% - +$928 -9.3% 11.6h ✓ -
48 XLF 19 19 +8.64% $10,000 $10,864 262 33% - +$864 -6.8% 10.7h ✓ -
49 SPY 19 11 +7.74% $10,000 $10,774 256 33% - +$774 -6.4% 9.3h ✓ -
50 VOO 20 13 +7.41% $10,000 $10,741 258 32% - +$741 -4.8% 8.9h ✓ -
51 PG 19 17 +7.26% $10,000 $10,726 262 27% - +$726 -4.6% 11.1h ✓ -
52 COP 15 10 +6.10% $10,000 $10,610 271 29% - +$610 -13.6% 9.7h ✓ -
53 COIN 13 45🔥 +6.06% $10,000 $10,606 268 28% - +$606 -23.0% 10.2h ✓ -
54 KO 16 9 +5.94% $10,000 $10,594 248 31% - +$594 -6.4% 13.1h ✓ -
55 ABBV 11 14 +3.90% $10,000 $10,390 277 33% - +$390 -20.2% 10.6h ✓ -
56 BLK 12 10 +3.59% $10,000 $10,359 270 32% - +$359 -8.6% 12.4h ✓ -
57 MSFT 11 14 +3.50% $10,000 $10,350 259 32% - +$350 -19.0% 11.5h ✓ -
58 AMD 10 75🔥 +2.72% $10,000 $10,272 268 31% - +$272 -38.6% 8.9h ✓ -
59 VTI 12 37🔥 +2.64% $10,000 $10,264 258 33% - +$264 -11.1% 8.5h ✓ -
60 JNJ 8 9 +2.41% $10,000 $10,241 261 30% - +$241 -10.9% 11.3h ✓ -
61 COST 8 11 +1.46% $10,000 $10,146 274 28% - +$146 -8.3% 12.2h ✓ -
62 BIIB 8 47🔥 +1.24% $10,000 $10,124 277 30% - +$124 -21.8% 9.1h ✓ -
63 BTCUSD ₿ — — +0.06% 🔄 $10,097 $104 2 100% $1 -$9,993 -99.1% 1.8h 45 Mar 4, 2026
64 NVDA 8 6 -0.45% $10,000 $9,955 262 31% - -$45 -30.4% 9.6h ✓ -
65 CMCSA 11 7 -0.54% $10,000 $9,946 263 33% - -$54 -8.3% 10.3h ✓ -
66 V 4 33🔥 -1.29% $10,000 $9,871 259 34% - -$129 -12.2% 10.0h ✓ -
67 DIA 5 9 -1.41% $10,000 $9,859 259 29% - -$141 -8.0% 11.1h ✓ -
68 MS 5 5 -1.62% $10,000 $9,838 266 36% - -$162 -12.1% 8.7h ✓ -
69 BMY 4 9 -4.10% $10,000 $9,590 273 30% - -$410 -14.5% 9.3h ✓ -
70 TMO 5 9 -5.66% $10,000 $9,434 274 28% - -$566 -14.5% 9.4h ✓ -
71 XLE 4 19 -5.92% $10,000 $9,408 270 33% - -$592 -13.2% 11.6h ✓ -
72 BRK-B 4 9 -6.12% $10,000 $9,388 268 25% - -$612 -16.1% 10.0h ✓ -
73 DIS 4 7 -6.95% $10,000 $9,305 267 31% - -$695 -15.9% 8.6h ✓ -
74 AVGO 4 48🔥 -7.88% $10,000 $9,212 262 32% - -$788 -26.2% 12.5h ✓ -
75 HD 4 6 -8.21% $10,000 $9,179 260 29% - -$821 -11.0% 10.3h ✓ -
76 TSLA 4 66🔥 -10.42% $10,000 $8,958 263 30% - -$1,042 -26.6% 10.7h ✓ -
77 AMZN 5 6 -10.56% $10,000 $8,944 262 34% - -$1,056 -24.3% 11.0h ✓ -
78 PYPL 4 6 -10.57% $10,000 $8,943 252 27% - -$1,057 -14.2% 12.0h ✓ -
79 TLT 4 16 -10.74% $10,000 $8,926 261 29% - -$1,074 -7.1% 12.0h ✓ -
80 ISRG 5 9 -11.25% $10,000 $8,875 259 32% - -$1,125 -10.1% 11.6h ✓ -
81 VZ 4 7 -12.76% $10,000 $8,724 259 29% - -$1,276 -22.5% 13.2h ✓ -
82 UNH 5 9 -14.24% $10,000 $8,576 264 29% - -$1,424 -17.4% 9.8h ✓ -
83 AAPL 4 29🔥 -14.32% $10,000 $8,568 259 30% - -$1,433 -16.9% 8.9h ✓ -
84 MU 3 9 -14.80% $10,000 $8,520 240 32% - -$1,480 -48.4% 10.8h ✓ -
85 PFE 4 5 -14.86% $10,000 $8,514 265 29% - -$1,486 -20.1% 11.0h ✓ -
86 MCD 4 7 -15.68% $10,000 $8,432 268 30% - -$1,568 -16.7% 11.1h ✓ -
87 ORCL 5 9 -16.33% $10,000 $8,367 252 33% - -$1,633 -31.9% 11.8h ✓ -
88 SOXL 4 9 -16.99% $10,000 $8,301 253 35% - -$1,699 -51.2% 11.0h ✓ -
89 NET 5 45🔥 -18.47% $10,000 $8,153 267 28% - -$1,847 -27.1% 9.4h ✓ -
90 GILD 3 9 -19.12% $10,000 $8,088 266 26% - -$1,912 -19.1% 8.9h ✓ -
91 IBM 5 25 -19.46% $10,000 $8,054 260 34% - -$1,946 -12.8% 9.8h ✓ -
92 ACN 5 7 -21.06% $10,000 $7,894 263 32% - -$2,106 -7.8% 11.9h ✓ -
93 MDT 4 6 -21.86% $10,000 $7,815 259 25% - -$2,186 -12.9% 12.0h ✓ -
94 OXY 5 9 -21.92% $10,000 $7,808 269 30% - -$2,192 -14.1% 11.1h ✓ -
95 ADBE 4 9 -24.15% $10,000 $7,585 275 32% - -$2,415 -20.5% 12.0h ✓ -
96 SPXU 3 37🔥 -26.43% $10,000 $7,357 139 29% - -$2,643 -29.7% 20.5h ✓ -
97 TQQQ 4 25🔥 -28.10% $10,000 $7,190 255 33% - -$2,810 -36.1% 10.2h ✓ -
98 MRNA 4 21 -32.89% $10,000 $6,711 278 30% - -$3,289 -67.6% 11.1h ✓ -
99 VXX 3 9 -33.78% $10,000 $6,622 281 23% - -$3,378 -42.2% 8.2h ✓ -
100 REGN 2 7 -44.75% $10,000 $5,525 271 25% - -$4,475 -33.9% 8.9h ✓ -
101 SHIBUSD ₿ — — -47.74% 🔄 $10,099 $8,005 102 17% $4,270 -$2,094 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 5, 2026
102 ARM 3 51🔥 -57.50% $10,000 $4,250 265 31% - -$5,750 -53.7% 10.4h ✓ -
103 NIO 2 7 -60.87% $10,000 $3,913 265 28% - -$6,087 -42.7% 8.8h ✓ -
104 DOTUSD ₿ — — -62.62% 🔄 $10,099 $5,827 124 15% $4,443 -$4,272 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 1, 2026
105 LTCUSD ₿ — — -69.53% 🔄 $10,100 $4,765 166 12% $5,339 -$5,335 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Jan 26, 2026
106 UNIUSD ₿ — — -71.19% 🔄 $10,100 $4,103 209 13% $5,788 -$5,997 -99.0% 1.6h 6 Jan 21, 2026
107 AMC 2 9 -72.71% $10,000 $2,729 290 20% - -$7,271 -67.5% 9.0h ✓ -
108 LINKUSD ₿ — — -74.93% 🔄 $10,100 $3,574 191 13% $5,423 -$6,526 -99.0% 1.7h 6 Jan 22, 2026
109 PEPEUSD ₿ — — -79.71% 🔄 $10,100 $3,164 196 14% $5,459 -$6,936 -99.3% 1.6h 7 Jan 22, 2026
110 SOLUSD ₿ — — -92.89% 🔄 $10,099 $989 454 11% $8,408 -$9,110 -99.1% 1.8h 5 Dec 20, 2025
111 ETHUSD ₿ — — -98.35% 🔄 $10,100 $231 699 11% $8,546 -$9,869 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Nov 16, 2025
112 DOGEUSD ₿ — — -98.57% 🔄 $10,100 $233 706 11% $8,528 -$9,866 -99.0% 1.7h 5 Nov 12, 2025
113 XRPUSD ₿ — — -98.77% 🔄 $10,099 $180 777 12% $8,823 -$9,920 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Oct 29, 2025
114 AVAXUSD ₿ — — -99.12% 🔄 $10,099 $133 764 10% $8,524 -$9,966 -99.1% 1.7h 5 Nov 7, 2025

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.