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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 → Sep 24, 2026 (265d)

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the year to date across 114 symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$9,946
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,588 ($-643)
-6.07%
Year to Date ROI
32.3%
Win Rate
11,385
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-3.8%
1 Month
-7.5%
3 Months
-6.0%
6 Months
-6.1%
YTD
-5.7%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Year to Date)

Stock Volume
$95,521,436
8,654 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$7,870,097
2,731 trades
Crypto Fees
$19,675
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 → Sep 24, 2026 (265 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MRNA 4 21 +62.05% $4,141 $6,711 90 39% - +$2,570 -67.6% 11.1h ✓ -
2 ARKK 37 36 +42.43% $10,554 $15,033 87 39% - +$4,478 -13.9% 11.5h ✓ -
3 PANW 56 20🧊 +40.59% $13,071 $18,377 77 45% - +$5,306 -10.2% 10.2h ✓ -
4 SMCI 28 70🔥 +38.34% $12,560 $17,375 86 31% - +$4,815 -43.0% 10.0h ✓ -
5 USO 35 59🔥 +35.55% $10,763 $14,590 85 41% - +$3,826 -11.7% 10.8h ✓ -
6 MRK 29 9 +29.92% $10,381 $13,487 88 43% - +$3,106 -15.0% 11.4h ✓ -
7 SNOW 16 9 +29.62% $8,748 $11,339 81 30% - +$2,591 -21.1% 10.3h ✓ -
8 RBLX 22 81🔥 +25.48% $10,040 $12,599 88 36% - +$2,558 -23.0% 10.9h ✓ -
9 META 15 32 +24.57% $8,785 $10,943 84 36% - +$2,158 -28.5% 9.8h ✓ -
10 INTC 20 67🔥 +23.23% $10,089 $12,433 87 31% - +$2,344 -21.5% 7.8h ✓ -
11 GME 35 45 +22.29% $14,498 $17,730 92 37% - +$3,232 -22.2% 8.2h ✓ -
12 XLK 37 43 +21.36% $12,015 $14,582 78 41% - +$2,566 -13.1% 10.5h ✓ -
13 SCHW 62 9🧊 +21.18% $13,684 $16,582 82 45% - +$2,898 -6.9% 10.9h ✓ -
14 AMD 10 75🔥 +20.98% $8,490 $10,272 86 42% - +$1,781 -38.6% 8.9h ✓ -
15 XOM 36 42 +20.03% $10,885 $13,065 82 39% - +$2,180 -7.7% 11.2h ✓ -
16 WFC 33 18 +16.67% $11,698 $13,648 81 40% - +$1,950 -10.6% 11.2h ✓ -
17 NFLX 26 6 +15.43% $11,046 $12,750 80 41% - +$1,704 -13.6% 11.4h ✓ -
18 LLY 33 9🧊 +15.31% $12,831 $14,795 88 36% - +$1,964 -13.5% 10.7h ✓ -
19 CVX 27 35 +14.60% $10,881 $12,469 83 39% - +$1,589 -10.7% 11.2h ✓ -
20 AMGN 52 24🧊 +12.33% $13,015 $14,620 95 36% - +$1,605 -5.9% 10.1h ✓ -
21 RIVN 36 9🧊 +12.14% $18,639 $20,902 84 39% - +$2,263 -33.5% 10.9h ✓ -
22 BAC 19 5 +11.98% $10,173 $11,391 74 42% - +$1,219 -19.3% 10.2h ✓ -
23 GS 49 32 +11.65% $14,087 $15,728 87 36% - +$1,641 -8.5% 10.1h ✓ -
24 ABBV 11 14 +11.62% $9,308 $10,390 96 32% - +$1,082 -20.2% 10.6h ✓ -
25 HOOD 40 9🧊 +11.26% $16,841 $18,737 83 36% - +$1,896 -21.5% 10.9h ✓ -
26 BIIB 8 47🔥 +9.53% $9,243 $10,124 92 33% - +$881 -21.8% 9.1h ✓ -
27 MA 24 9 +9.52% $10,642 $11,655 91 38% - +$1,013 -9.3% 9.0h ✓ -
28 GOOGL 21 9 +8.09% $11,278 $12,190 83 39% - +$912 -22.4% 10.5h ✓ -
29 PLTR 41 9🧊 +7.68% $18,965 $20,422 85 25% - +$1,457 -23.6% 12.0h ✓ -
30 JNJ 8 9 +7.00% $9,571 $10,241 84 33% - +$670 -10.9% 11.3h ✓ -
31 BMY 4 9 +6.72% $8,986 $9,590 85 39% - +$604 -14.5% 9.3h ✓ -
32 WMT 52 7🧊 +6.70% $13,908 $14,840 79 34% - +$932 -6.4% 14.1h ✓ -
33 SQQQ 17 7 +6.46% $10,762 $11,457 84 32% - +$695 -27.4% 9.4h ✓ -
34 V 4 33🔥 +6.43% $9,275 $9,871 81 41% - +$596 -12.2% 10.0h ✓ -
35 AXP 20 5 +6.06% $10,956 $11,620 84 36% - +$664 -17.9% 10.5h ✓ -
36 BRK-B 4 9 +5.96% $8,860 $9,388 85 33% - +$528 -16.1% 10.0h ✓ -
37 MSFT 11 14 +4.87% $9,870 $10,350 80 38% - +$481 -19.0% 11.5h ✓ -
38 CSCO 42 9🧊 +4.83% $12,824 $13,444 82 40% - +$619 -5.8% 11.6h ✓ -
39 LCID 26 9 +4.69% $13,826 $14,474 86 30% - +$648 -23.9% 10.4h ✓ -
40 VTI 12 37🔥 +4.19% $9,851 $10,264 80 39% - +$413 -11.1% 8.5h ✓ -
41 VRTX 30 9🧊 +3.78% $12,376 $12,844 88 30% - +$468 -9.6% 11.3h ✓ -
42 CRWD 30 61🔥 +3.49% $15,375 $15,912 77 34% - +$537 -20.9% 11.7h ✓ -
43 PFE 4 5 +3.35% $8,238 $8,514 86 36% - +$276 -20.1% 11.0h ✓ -
44 PM 55 7🧊 +2.96% $13,973 $14,386 81 40% - +$414 -4.1% 12.3h ✓ -
45 RIOT 27 41 +2.95% $14,985 $15,428 85 32% - +$442 -34.2% 9.1h ✓ -
46 VZ 4 7 +2.94% $8,475 $8,724 81 38% - +$249 -22.5% 13.2h ✓ -
47 PEP 31 9🧊 +2.29% $11,708 $11,976 85 32% - +$268 -6.0% 11.3h ✓ -
48 JPM 30 9🧊 +2.29% $12,426 $12,711 81 32% - +$285 -9.6% 10.5h ✓ -
49 TSLA 4 66🔥 +2.25% $8,761 $8,958 83 29% - +$197 -26.6% 10.7h ✓ -
50 XLF 19 19 +1.01% $10,755 $10,864 82 37% - +$109 -6.8% 10.7h ✓ -
51 KO 16 9 +0.58% $10,533 $10,594 83 35% - +$61 -6.4% 13.1h ✓ -
52 GLD 43 9🧊 -0.17% $13,512 $13,489 83 36% - -$23 -6.1% 12.6h ✓ -
53 DIA 5 9 -0.38% $9,897 $9,859 81 33% - -$38 -8.0% 11.1h ✓ -
54 IWM 23 3 -0.69% $11,446 $11,367 82 29% - -$79 -8.0% 9.6h ✓ -
55 SLV 24 9 -1.44% $12,309 $12,131 82 32% - -$177 -14.1% 11.3h ✓ -
56 SPY 19 11 -1.74% $10,965 $10,774 84 35% - -$191 -6.4% 9.3h ✓ -
57 TMO 5 9 -2.46% $9,672 $9,434 85 33% - -$238 -14.5% 9.4h ✓ -
58 HD 4 6 -2.59% $9,423 $9,179 80 31% - -$244 -11.0% 10.3h ✓ -
59 SLB 17 32 -2.64% $11,407 $11,106 82 33% - -$301 -17.0% 9.5h ✓ -
60 DKNG 15 6 -2.64% $11,231 $10,935 88 27% - -$297 -25.0% 11.5h ✓ -
61 XLE 4 19 -2.85% $9,684 $9,408 89 40% - -$276 -13.2% 11.6h ✓ -
62 MCD 4 7 -3.26% $8,716 $8,432 84 36% - -$284 -16.7% 11.1h ✓ -
63 VOO 20 13 -3.74% $11,158 $10,741 84 33% - -$417 -4.8% 8.9h ✓ -
64 COP 15 10 -3.81% $11,030 $10,610 87 29% - -$420 -13.6% 9.7h ✓ -
65 QQQ 19 30 -4.82% $11,482 $10,928 82 33% - -$553 -9.3% 11.6h ✓ -
66 GILD 3 9 -5.40% $8,550 $8,088 86 26% - -$462 -19.1% 8.9h ✓ -
67 COST 8 11 -6.04% $10,798 $10,146 89 34% - -$652 -8.3% 12.2h ✓ -
68 MU 3 9 -6.17% $9,080 $8,520 84 39% - -$560 -48.4% 10.8h ✓ -
69 CMCSA 11 7 -6.36% $10,621 $9,946 80 35% - -$676 -8.3% 10.3h ✓ -
70 ORCL 5 9 -6.56% $8,955 $8,367 82 37% - -$587 -31.9% 11.8h ✓ -
71 TLT 4 16 -7.07% $9,605 $8,926 87 23% - -$679 -7.1% 12.0h ✓ -
72 AAPL 4 29🔥 -7.12% $9,224 $8,568 83 35% - -$657 -16.9% 8.9h ✓ -
73 DIS 4 7 -7.23% $10,030 $9,305 87 28% - -$725 -15.9% 8.6h ✓ -
74 AMZN 5 6 -7.56% $9,675 $8,944 83 30% - -$731 -24.3% 11.0h ✓ -
75 AVGO 4 48🔥 -7.74% $9,985 $9,212 86 37% - -$773 -26.2% 12.5h ✓ -
76 NVDA 8 6 -8.35% $10,862 $9,955 81 32% - -$907 -30.4% 9.6h ✓ -
77 C 17 18 -10.42% $12,408 $11,115 84 33% - -$1,293 -16.6% 10.1h ✓ -
78 UNH 5 9 -11.12% $9,648 $8,576 84 27% - -$1,073 -17.4% 9.8h ✓ -
79 CRM 17 7 -11.16% $12,606 $11,199 86 35% - -$1,407 -15.0% 9.6h ✓ -
80 PYPL 4 6 -11.69% $10,127 $8,943 82 23% - -$1,184 -14.2% 12.0h ✓ -
81 SPXU 3 37🔥 -12.01% $8,361 $7,357 83 33% - -$1,004 -29.7% 20.5h ✓ -
82 BLK 12 10 -12.13% $11,789 $10,359 98 26% - -$1,430 -8.6% 12.4h ✓ -
83 SOXL 4 9 -13.34% $9,579 $8,301 85 36% - -$1,278 -51.2% 11.0h ✓ -
84 MS 5 5 -13.49% $11,373 $9,838 84 38% - -$1,534 -12.1% 8.7h ✓ -
85 PG 19 17 -14.10% $12,487 $10,726 85 25% - -$1,761 -4.6% 11.1h ✓ -
86 MARA 27 25 -14.61% $19,199 $16,394 90 31% - -$2,805 -35.1% 9.9h ✓ -
87 IBM 5 25 -15.29% $9,507 $8,054 83 31% - -$1,454 -12.8% 9.8h ✓ -
88 UVXY 22 7 -15.77% $16,066 $13,532 93 29% - -$2,534 -23.5% 7.4h ✓ -
89 ISRG 5 9 -15.94% $10,558 $8,875 85 32% - -$1,683 -10.1% 11.6h ✓ -
90 REGN 2 7 -17.08% $6,664 $5,525 89 28% - -$1,138 -33.9% 8.9h ✓ -
91 MDT 4 6 -18.75% $9,618 $7,815 80 28% - -$1,803 -12.9% 12.0h ✓ -
92 OXY 5 9 -19.55% $9,705 $7,808 86 33% - -$1,897 -14.1% 11.1h ✓ -
93 ARM 3 51🔥 -19.71% $5,294 $4,250 87 32% - -$1,043 -53.7% 10.4h ✓ -
94 ADBE 4 9 -20.39% $9,528 $7,585 91 30% - -$1,943 -20.5% 12.0h ✓ -
95 SHIBUSD ₿ — — -20.74% $10,100 $8,005 102 17% $4,270 -$2,095 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 5, 2026
96 NET 5 45🔥 -21.04% $10,326 $8,153 91 26% - -$2,173 -27.1% 9.4h ✓ -
97 SOFI 38 9🧊 -21.61% $24,301 $19,050 83 34% - -$5,251 -22.8% 11.5h ✓ -
98 ACN 5 7 -23.69% $10,344 $7,894 83 28% - -$2,451 -7.8% 11.9h ✓ -
99 COIN 13 45🔥 -24.92% $14,127 $10,606 86 29% - -$3,520 -23.0% 10.2h ✓ -
100 VXX 3 9 -25.16% $8,848 $6,622 90 24% - -$2,226 -42.2% 8.2h ✓ -
101 TQQQ 4 25🔥 -26.39% $9,767 $7,190 84 27% - -$2,578 -36.1% 10.2h ✓ -
102 AMC 2 9 -28.87% $3,836 $2,729 97 27% - -$1,108 -67.5% 9.0h ✓ -
103 NIO 2 7 -40.13% $6,536 $3,913 87 21% - -$2,623 -42.7% 8.8h ✓ -
104 DOTUSD ₿ — — -42.30% $10,099 $5,827 124 15% $4,443 -$4,272 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Feb 1, 2026
105 LTCUSD ₿ — — -53.75% $10,303 $4,765 166 12% $5,339 -$5,538 -99.1% 1.7h 6 Jan 26, 2026
106 UNIUSD ₿ — — -59.38% $10,100 $4,103 209 13% $5,788 -$5,997 -99.0% 1.6h 6 Jan 21, 2026
107 LINKUSD ₿ — — -64.61% $10,098 $3,574 191 13% $5,423 -$6,525 -99.0% 1.7h 6 Jan 22, 2026
108 PEPEUSD ₿ — — -68.67% $10,099 $3,164 196 14% $5,459 -$6,935 -99.3% 1.6h 7 Jan 22, 2026
109 XRPUSD ₿ — — -78.17% $823 $180 339 12% $8,823 -$644 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Oct 29, 2025
110 DOGEUSD ₿ — — -81.47% $1,260 $233 341 13% $8,528 -$1,026 -99.0% 1.7h 5 Nov 12, 2025
111 ETHUSD ₿ — — -83.17% $1,370 $231 351 13% $8,546 -$1,140 -99.0% 1.8h 5 Nov 16, 2025
112 SOLUSD ₿ — — -84.03% $6,194 $989 366 12% $8,408 -$5,205 -99.1% 1.8h 5 Dec 20, 2025
113 AVAXUSD ₿ — — -86.80% $1,009 $133 344 10% $8,524 -$876 -99.1% 1.7h 5 Nov 7, 2025
114 BTCUSD ₿ — — -98.97% $10,063 $104 2 100% $1 -$9,959 -99.1% 1.8h 45 Mar 4, 2026

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.