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Rebel Contraire
11

Rebel Contraire

The Rebel

⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)

"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."

Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Rebel Contraire $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$11,264
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$1,264)
+12.64%
2-Year ROI
58.1%
Win Rate
22,155
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+2.5%
1 Month
-3.3%
3 Months
-5.3%
6 Months
-2.9%
YTD
+1.5%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$204,108,830
18,041 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$15,818,705
4,114 trades
Crypto Fees
$39,547
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS: 3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 5

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: May 6, 2024 May 6, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 GOOGL 58 77 +148.79% $10,000 $24,879 161 62% - +$14,879 -25.1% 3.0d -
2 NVDA 44 63 +125.01% $10,000 $22,501 217 62% - +$12,501 -35.3% 1.8d -
3 CVX 72 25🧊 +107.18% $10,000 $20,718 142 65% - +$10,718 -12.9% 3.9d -
4 MRNA 41 14🧊 +105.34% $10,000 $20,534 265 63% - +$10,534 -42.5% 1.3d -
5 GLD 68 34🧊 +102.39% $10,000 $20,239 132 64% - +$10,239 -11.3% 4.4d -
6 SOXL 43 35 +101.25% $10,000 $20,125 292 60% - +$10,125 -33.0% 20.2h -
7 GS 57 13🧊 +94.77% $10,000 $19,477 163 60% - +$9,477 -13.2% 3.2d -
8 PLTR 45 51 +94.37% $10,000 $19,437 250 64% - +$9,437 -26.0% 1.3d -
9 CSCO 69 59 +92.80% $10,000 $19,280 141 59% - +$9,280 -9.7% 4.0d -
10 AXP 57 64 +92.24% $10,000 $19,224 158 64% - +$9,224 -13.8% 3.2d -
11 XLE 64 25🧊 +89.74% $10,000 $18,974 142 63% - +$8,974 -12.9% 4.0d -
12 MU 40 42 +86.36% $10,000 $18,636 227 61% - +$8,636 -32.2% 1.8d -
13 AVGO 43 57 +81.31% $10,000 $18,131 207 59% - +$8,131 -21.1% 1.9d -
14 WMT 55 33🧊 +78.48% $10,000 $17,848 138 64% - +$7,848 -14.2% 4.1d -
15 NFLX 45 13🧊 +77.36% $10,000 $17,736 160 60% - +$7,736 -19.6% 3.1d -
16 XOM 51 48 +69.12% $10,000 $16,912 148 65% - +$6,912 -13.9% 3.6d -
17 IBM 53 59 +67.28% $10,000 $16,728 155 63% - +$6,728 -11.2% 3.4d -
18 ARM 37 68🔥 +66.94% $10,000 $16,694 252 63% - +$6,694 -36.8% 1.4d -
19 MS 41 66🔥 +64.00% $10,000 $16,400 152 63% - +$6,400 -18.0% 3.4d -
20 PANW 44 49 +61.00% $10,000 $16,100 186 62% - +$6,100 -18.6% 2.6d -
21 INTC 33 71🔥 +54.65% $10,000 $15,465 228 62% - +$5,465 -45.8% 1.7d -
22 VOO 55 57 +53.37% $10,000 $15,337 122 63% - +$5,337 -9.6% 4.9d -
23 BAC 38 63🔥 +51.93% $10,000 $15,193 149 60% - +$5,193 -19.8% 3.5d -
24 NET 36 54 +51.29% $10,000 $15,129 219 63% - +$5,129 -29.4% 1.9d -
25 ORCL 32 31 +50.74% $10,000 $15,074 194 58% - +$5,074 -37.5% 2.4d -
26 OXY 38 35 +50.42% $10,000 $15,043 169 60% - +$5,043 -31.5% 3.1d -
27 META 33 20 +50.09% $10,000 $15,009 167 57% - +$5,009 -36.9% 2.8d -
28 SPY 53 56 +49.03% $10,000 $14,903 123 65% - +$4,903 -9.7% 4.8d -
29 GILD 38 10🧊 +47.37% $10,000 $14,737 148 61% - +$4,737 -16.0% 3.6d -
30 VTI 49 54 +45.61% $10,000 $14,561 123 63% - +$4,561 -10.5% 4.8d -
31 JPM 35 38 +43.08% $10,000 $14,308 145 61% - +$4,308 -21.7% 3.6d -
32 SNOW 31 13 +42.81% $10,000 $14,281 213 59% - +$4,281 -41.0% 2.0d -
33 AAPL 37 62🔥 +41.63% $10,000 $14,163 144 65% - +$4,163 -20.3% 3.7d -
34 JNJ 45 3🧊 +41.57% $10,000 $14,157 126 60% - +$4,157 -9.8% 4.5d -
35 BRK-B 43 10🧊 +40.63% $10,000 $14,063 130 55% - +$4,063 -10.0% 4.4d -
36 IWM 39 53 +39.95% $10,000 $13,995 139 55% - +$3,995 -11.9% 3.8d -
37 PM 34 56🔥 +36.86% $10,000 $13,686 141 60% - +$3,686 -19.7% 3.9d -
38 USO 35 54 +36.41% $10,000 $13,641 161 62% - +$3,641 -29.6% 3.3d -
39 MA 38 18 +35.96% $10,000 $13,596 137 60% - +$3,596 -12.2% 4.1d -
40 RBLX 31 12 +34.44% $10,000 $13,444 215 62% - +$3,444 -34.9% 1.9d -
41 WFC 35 10🧊 +34.35% $10,000 $13,435 162 61% - +$3,435 -17.9% 3.2d -
42 XLF 35 25 +34.20% $10,000 $13,420 120 59% - +$3,420 -17.8% 4.8d -
43 DIA 39 44 +33.26% $10,000 $13,326 117 62% - +$3,326 -13.6% 5.1d -
44 V 35 57🔥 +32.55% $10,000 $13,255 137 54% - +$3,255 -11.9% 4.2d -
45 SLV 30 7🧊 +31.74% $10,000 $13,174 176 57% - +$3,174 -18.7% 2.8d -
46 C 32 64🔥 +31.24% $10,000 $13,124 164 59% - +$3,124 -21.2% 3.0d -
47 KO 33 49 +31.19% $10,000 $13,119 123 58% - +$3,119 -18.7% 4.6d -
48 BLK 32 27 +31.13% $10,000 $13,113 151 56% - +$3,113 -17.7% 3.6d -
49 AMZN 30 76🔥 +30.21% $10,000 $13,021 169 59% - +$3,021 -27.2% 2.9d -
50 COST 32 22 +28.78% $10,000 $12,878 132 55% - +$2,878 -17.4% 4.1d -
51 TSLA 28 63🔥 +27.11% $10,000 $12,711 233 59% - +$2,711 -37.6% 1.5d -
52 MSFT 29 64🔥 +24.08% $10,000 $12,408 141 57% - +$2,408 -19.1% 3.9d -
53 COP 30 76🔥 +19.60% $10,000 $11,960 166 57% - +$1,960 -20.4% 3.2d -
54 GME 25 36 +19.42% $10,000 $11,942 232 60% - +$1,942 -32.4% 1.4d -
55 XLK 26 81🔥 +19.24% $10,000 $11,924 143 62% - +$1,924 -30.8% 3.7d -
56 AMD 22 92🔥 +15.60% $10,000 $11,560 220 59% - +$1,560 -52.6% 1.8d -
57 LLY 23 7 +15.36% $10,000 $11,536 182 58% - +$1,536 -33.4% 2.6d -
58 SCHW 25 3🧊 +15.36% $10,000 $11,536 144 59% - +$1,536 -16.1% 3.8d -
59 AMGN 23 11 +12.10% $10,000 $11,210 147 54% - +$1,210 -20.8% 3.6d -
60 SPXU 21 9 +8.61% $10,000 $10,861 113 59% - +$861 -29.5% 2.3d -
61 VZ 22 5 +8.51% $10,000 $10,851 132 57% - +$851 -15.3% 4.2d -
62 MCD 20 2 +7.54% $10,000 $10,754 123 52% - +$754 -15.2% 4.4d -
63 VRTX 21 6 +7.21% $10,000 $10,721 150 58% - +$721 -21.3% 3.5d -
64 HD 16 5 +6.91% $10,000 $10,691 139 53% - +$691 -18.6% 3.9d -
65 PG 18 26 +6.86% $10,000 $10,686 125 54% - +$686 -19.3% 4.7d -
66 QQQ 20 61🔥 +6.75% $10,000 $10,675 130 58% - +$675 -24.0% 4.3d -
67 PEP 20 15 +6.53% $10,000 $10,653 130 52% - +$653 -16.0% 4.4d -
68 ISRG 17 5 +2.94% $10,000 $10,294 153 54% - +$294 -39.2% 3.1d -
69 SLB 18 71🔥 +2.24% $10,000 $10,224 173 57% - +$224 -24.3% 2.9d -
70 ABBV 13 3 +0.75% $10,000 $10,075 143 56% - +$75 -25.0% 3.7d -
71 HOOD 11 32🔥 -5.80% $10,000 $9,420 263 57% - -$580 -32.1% 1.3d -
72 CRWD 13 27 -6.34% $10,000 $9,366 220 60% - -$634 -37.8% 1.8d -
73 UVXY 10 56🔥 -6.99% $10,000 $9,301 283 57% - -$699 -48.5% 22.7h -
74 SMCI 12 47🔥 -7.08% $10,000 $9,292 283 58% - -$708 -63.9% 22.3h -
75 BMY 10 2 -7.66% $10,000 $9,234 160 55% - -$766 -39.5% 3.0d -
76 MRK 12 9 -9.28% $10,000 $9,072 154 58% - -$928 -29.6% 3.5d -
77 MDT 7 5 -10.81% $10,000 $8,919 131 51% - -$1,081 -15.1% 4.3d -
78 TMO 10 6 -11.53% $10,000 $8,847 150 55% - -$1,153 -23.9% 3.6d -
79 TLT 10 2 -11.76% $10,000 $8,824 113 52% - -$1,176 -15.8% 5.2d -
80 DIS 8 3 -14.02% $10,000 $8,598 140 48% - -$1,402 -25.4% 3.7d -
81 PFE 9 3 -14.65% $10,000 $8,535 141 54% - -$1,465 -30.4% 3.8d -
82 PYPL 11 68🔥 -14.83% $10,000 $8,517 171 56% - -$1,483 -52.5% 2.7d -
83 BIIB 10 27 -15.64% $10,000 $8,436 165 52% - -$1,564 -32.7% 3.0d -
84 DKNG 12 50🔥 -15.83% $10,000 $8,417 219 57% - -$1,583 -46.7% 1.8d -
85 VXX 10 50🔥 -18.74% $10,000 $8,126 231 56% - -$1,874 -57.1% 1.8d -
86 SOFI 10 15 -19.63% $10,000 $8,037 241 56% - -$1,963 -43.4% 1.4d -
87 REGN 11 6 -20.50% $10,000 $7,950 164 56% - -$2,050 -42.3% 3.1d -
88 ARKK 11 9 -21.45% $10,000 $7,855 187 59% - -$2,145 -23.5% 2.4d -
89 UNH 10 64🔥 -24.94% $10,000 $7,506 162 56% - -$2,494 -41.5% 3.0d -
90 ACN 8 36🔥 -31.95% $10,000 $6,805 153 50% - -$3,195 -41.3% 3.4d -
91 NIO 9 53🔥 -32.17% $10,000 $6,783 244 55% - -$3,217 -39.7% 1.4d -
92 ADBE 9 53🔥 -33.14% $10,000 $6,686 157 52% - -$3,314 -40.9% 3.1d -
93 MARA 11 13 -33.70% $10,000 $6,630 319 55% - -$3,370 -40.2% 16.1h -
94 CRM 10 27 -34.45% $10,000 $6,555 168 57% - -$3,445 -46.3% 3.1d -
95 SQQQ 10 9 -37.34% $10,000 $6,266 240 55% - -$3,734 -53.7% 1.5d -
96 SHIBUSD -40.19% 🔄 $10,098 $6,704 87 57% $3,511 -$3,394 -99.3% 8.9h 2 Jan 12, 2026
97 TQQQ 11 35🔥 -42.75% $10,000 $5,725 235 56% - -$4,275 -41.0% 1.5d -
98 RIOT 11 42🔥 -45.79% $10,000 $5,421 313 60% - -$4,579 -55.6% 17.3h -
99 CMCSA 6 2 -46.22% $10,000 $5,378 140 47% - -$4,622 -47.7% 3.7d -
100 RIVN 10 30 -50.01% $10,000 $4,999 270 59% - -$5,001 -60.0% 1.1d -
101 AMC 9 13 -57.20% $10,000 $4,280 221 55% - -$5,720 -57.1% 1.4d -
102 COIN 9 26 -60.82% $10,000 $3,918 283 55% - -$6,082 -67.1% 23.4h -
103 DOGEUSD -63.11% 🔄 $10,100 $4,428 157 58% $5,179 -$5,672 -99.1% 8.2h 2 Dec 7, 2025
104 LINKUSD -69.32% 🔄 $10,099 $3,654 165 56% $5,330 -$6,445 -99.1% 9.0h 2 Nov 21, 2025
105 LCID 9 15 -69.95% $10,000 $3,005 269 56% - -$6,995 -69.8% 23.6h -
106 ETHUSD -74.63% 🔄 $10,097 $2,982 168 54% $4,681 -$7,114 -99.2% 15.1h 1 Nov 13, 2025
107 DOTUSD -84.84% 🔄 $10,099 $2,047 243 55% $4,762 -$8,052 -99.0% 9.9h 2 Nov 12, 2025
108 AVAXUSD -88.93% 🔄 $10,098 $1,296 264 54% $5,219 -$8,802 -99.2% 8.7h 2 Oct 10, 2025
109 PEPEUSD -89.13% 🔄 $10,095 $1,258 348 56% $8,303 -$8,837 -99.6% 5.0h 2 Sep 22, 2025
110 XRPUSD -90.04% 🔄 $10,099 $1,179 301 55% $5,991 -$8,920 -99.0% 11.7h 1 Aug 14, 2025
111 BTCUSD 11 76🔥 -92.56% $10,000 $744 596 60% $15,696 -$9,256 -95.2% 1.1d -
112 UNIUSD -93.49% 🔄 $10,098 $772 394 55% $7,266 -$9,326 -99.1% 8.0h 2 Sep 1, 2025
113 LTCUSD -96.29% 🔄 $10,097 $443 619 60% $10,066 -$9,654 -99.1% 11.8h 1 Mar 3, 2025
114 SOLUSD -98.70% 🔄 $10,099 $169 772 59% $10,449 -$9,931 -99.1% 9.6h 1 Feb 18, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.