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Rebel Contraire
11

Rebel Contraire

The Rebel

⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)

"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."

Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730d)

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Rebel Contraire $10,000 and let him trade 114 symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$12,159
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$2,159)
+21.59%
2-Year ROI
56.8%
Win Rate
22,313
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+1.3%
1 Month
+2.0%
3 Months
+1.2%
6 Months
+2.4%
YTD
+0.1%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$213,719,961
18,249 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$15,140,808
4,064 trades
Crypto Fees
$37,852
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS: 3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 5

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Sep 24, 2024 → Sep 24, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MRNA 🔥 PRO 77 62 +429.22% $10,000 $52,922 276 64% - +$42,922 -42.5% 1.3d ✓ -
2 GOOGL 63 58 +178.45% $10,000 $27,845 165 64% - +$17,845 -25.1% 3.0d ✓ -
3 SNOW 50 58 +176.97% $10,000 $27,698 221 62% - +$17,698 -41.0% 2.0d ✓ -
4 SOXL 51 91🔥 +171.04% $10,000 $27,104 300 61% - +$17,104 -33.0% 20.2h ✓ -
5 PLTR 56 39 +155.02% $10,000 $25,502 246 62% - +$15,502 -26.0% 1.3d ✓ -
6 PANW 61 49 +134.10% $10,000 $23,410 199 64% - +$13,410 -18.6% 2.6d ✓ -
7 CVX 70 23🧊 +124.01% $10,000 $22,401 144 66% - +$12,401 -12.9% 3.9d ✓ -
8 MU 45 50 +121.84% $10,000 $22,184 246 63% - +$12,184 -32.2% 1.8d ✓ -
9 XLE 70 26🧊 +120.10% $10,000 $22,010 144 64% - +$12,010 -12.9% 4.0d ✓ -
10 AXP 59 5🧊 +99.13% $10,000 $19,913 159 60% - +$9,913 -13.8% 3.2d ✓ -
11 CSCO 70 5🧊 +98.71% $10,000 $19,871 146 60% - +$9,871 -9.7% 4.0d ✓ -
12 NVDA 40 25 +92.86% $10,000 $19,286 201 60% - +$9,286 -35.3% 1.8d ✓ -
13 INTC 35 86🔥 +82.92% $10,000 $18,292 251 63% - +$8,292 -45.8% 1.7d ✓ -
14 NET 40 48 +82.89% $10,000 $18,289 235 63% - +$8,289 -29.4% 1.9d ✓ -
15 AAPL 49 40 +82.64% $10,000 $18,264 145 64% - +$8,264 -20.3% 3.7d ✓ -
16 GLD 57 2🧊 +79.86% $10,000 $17,986 135 59% - +$7,986 -11.3% 4.4d ✓ -
17 GS 50 5🧊 +73.32% $10,000 $17,332 165 59% - +$7,332 -13.2% 3.2d ✓ -
18 XOM 50 10🧊 +70.93% $10,000 $17,093 155 63% - +$7,093 -13.9% 3.6d ✓ -
19 WMT 49 48 +66.80% $10,000 $16,680 145 61% - +$6,680 -14.2% 4.1d ✓ -
20 AMD 32 69🔥 +65.45% $10,000 $16,545 234 61% - +$6,545 -52.6% 1.8d ✓ -
21 VOO 59 3🧊 +63.30% $10,000 $16,330 123 60% - +$6,330 -9.6% 4.9d ✓ -
22 JNJ 55 30🧊 +62.89% $10,000 $16,289 135 62% - +$6,289 -9.8% 4.5d ✓ -
23 V 49 2🧊 +62.75% $10,000 $16,275 137 54% - +$6,275 -11.9% 4.2d ✓ -
24 BAC 42 3🧊 +62.42% $10,000 $16,242 150 59% - +$6,242 -19.8% 3.5d ✓ -
25 GILD 42 26 +61.20% $10,000 $16,120 152 60% - +$6,120 -16.0% 3.6d ✓ -
26 BRK-B 53 42 +60.25% $10,000 $16,025 129 56% - +$6,025 -10.0% 4.4d ✓ -
27 RBLX 37 61🔥 +58.08% $10,000 $15,808 234 61% - +$5,808 -34.9% 1.9d ✓ -
28 META 34 79🔥 +57.88% $10,000 $15,788 172 58% - +$5,788 -36.9% 2.8d ✓ -
29 SPY 55 3🧊 +56.38% $10,000 $15,638 123 62% - +$5,638 -9.7% 4.8d ✓ -
30 MA 44 14🧊 +54.06% $10,000 $15,406 139 59% - +$5,406 -12.2% 4.1d ✓ -
31 XLF 41 3🧊 +52.62% $10,000 $15,262 120 55% - +$5,262 -17.8% 4.8d ✓ -
32 VTI 51 3🧊 +52.11% $10,000 $15,211 123 62% - +$5,211 -10.5% 4.8d ✓ -
33 USO 35 58🔥 +50.51% $10,000 $15,051 175 63% - +$5,051 -29.6% 3.3d ✓ -
34 GME 33 75🔥 +50.34% $10,000 $15,034 207 60% - +$5,034 -32.4% 1.4d ✓ -
35 PM 38 14🧊 +50.30% $10,000 $15,030 153 58% - +$5,030 -19.7% 3.9d ✓ -
36 NFLX 37 13🧊 +48.09% $10,000 $14,809 162 59% - +$4,809 -19.6% 3.1d ✓ -
37 SCHW 39 11🧊 +47.44% $10,000 $14,744 145 62% - +$4,744 -16.1% 3.8d ✓ -
38 SLV 37 28 +47.30% $10,000 $14,730 184 59% - +$4,730 -18.7% 2.8d ✓ -
39 JPM 36 6🧊 +46.86% $10,000 $14,686 147 58% - +$4,686 -21.7% 3.6d ✓ -
40 MS 36 10🧊 +45.58% $10,000 $14,558 155 59% - +$4,558 -18.0% 3.4d ✓ -
41 DIA 43 3🧊 +44.00% $10,000 $14,400 119 57% - +$4,400 -13.6% 5.1d ✓ -
42 TSLA 31 28 +42.37% $10,000 $14,237 232 59% - +$4,237 -37.6% 1.5d ✓ -
43 WFC 36 26 +41.41% $10,000 $14,141 162 60% - +$4,141 -17.9% 3.2d ✓ -
44 C 34 33 +40.56% $10,000 $14,056 168 57% - +$4,056 -21.2% 3.0d ✓ -
45 KO 34 6🧊 +37.39% $10,000 $13,739 126 54% - +$3,739 -18.7% 4.6d ✓ -
46 OXY 31 10🧊 +37.26% $10,000 $13,726 174 60% - +$3,726 -31.5% 3.1d ✓ -
47 COST 34 6🧊 +36.41% $10,000 $13,642 137 53% - +$3,642 -17.4% 4.1d ✓ -
48 MSFT 33 12🧊 +35.72% $10,000 $13,572 148 57% - +$3,572 -19.1% 3.9d ✓ -
49 HOOD 29 12 +34.64% $10,000 $13,464 270 59% - +$3,464 -32.1% 1.3d ✓ -
50 IWM 36 3🧊 +34.48% $10,000 $13,448 138 51% - +$3,448 -11.9% 3.8d ✓ -
51 COP 33 34 +32.90% $10,000 $13,290 170 58% - +$3,290 -20.4% 3.2d ✓ -
52 BLK 32 5🧊 +32.30% $10,000 $13,230 153 52% - +$3,230 -17.7% 3.6d ✓ -
53 AMGN 32 12 +31.03% $10,000 $13,103 153 57% - +$3,103 -20.8% 3.6d ✓ -
54 SPXU 28 17 +28.41% $10,000 $12,841 132 58% - +$2,841 -29.5% 2.3d ✓ -
55 ARM 29 56🔥 +26.32% $10,000 $12,632 255 61% - +$2,632 -36.8% 1.4d ✓ -
56 BMY 25 3🧊 +23.00% $10,000 $12,300 161 56% - +$2,300 -39.5% 3.0d ✓ -
57 AVGO 28 6🧊 +22.25% $10,000 $12,225 203 56% - +$2,225 -21.1% 1.9d ✓ -
58 VRTX 27 3🧊 +19.53% $10,000 $11,953 153 59% - +$1,953 -21.3% 3.5d ✓ -
59 LLY 23 5 +18.65% $10,000 $11,865 180 53% - +$1,865 -33.4% 2.6d ✓ -
60 VZ 28 10 +18.12% $10,000 $11,812 137 57% - +$1,812 -15.3% 4.2d ✓ -
61 ORCL 26 29 +17.16% $10,000 $11,716 215 54% - +$1,716 -37.5% 2.4d ✓ -
62 PG 27 38 +17.12% $10,000 $11,712 133 53% - +$1,712 -19.3% 4.7d ✓ -
63 ABBV 25 30 +16.27% $10,000 $11,627 148 57% - +$1,627 -25.0% 3.7d ✓ -
64 PEP 25 10 +15.88% $10,000 $11,588 135 53% - +$1,588 -16.0% 4.4d ✓ -
65 MRK 22 9 +9.34% $10,000 $10,934 159 59% - +$934 -29.6% 3.5d ✓ -
66 AMZN 21 5 +9.13% $10,000 $10,913 167 54% - +$913 -27.2% 2.9d ✓ -
67 PYPL 21 26 +8.61% $10,000 $10,861 171 56% - +$861 -52.5% 2.7d ✓ -
68 XLK 21 5 +8.27% $10,000 $10,827 148 58% - +$827 -30.8% 3.7d ✓ -
69 TMO 19 5 +7.45% $10,000 $10,745 162 56% - +$745 -23.9% 3.6d ✓ -
70 QQQ 17 3 +2.18% $10,000 $10,218 130 55% - +$218 -24.0% 4.3d ✓ -
71 CRWD — — +0.00% 🔄 $5,800 $-4,200 NO ENTRY - - -$10,000 -37.8% 1.8d 1 Jul 6, 2026
72 MDT 15 6 -0.07% $10,000 $9,993 137 52% - -$7 -15.1% 4.3d ✓ -
73 SLB 11 9 -0.41% $10,000 $9,959 176 56% - -$41 -24.3% 2.9d ✓ -
74 BIIB 11 6 -2.45% $10,000 $9,755 167 53% - -$245 -32.7% 3.0d ✓ -
75 MCD 9 5 -7.54% $10,000 $9,246 124 46% - -$754 -15.2% 4.4d ✓ -
76 UVXY 10 12 -8.29% $10,000 $9,171 275 59% - -$829 -48.5% 22.7h ✓ -
77 ISRG 12 63🔥 -11.48% $10,000 $8,852 161 50% - -$1,148 -39.2% 3.1d ✓ -
78 TLT 10 3 -12.10% $10,000 $8,790 112 49% - -$1,210 -15.8% 5.2d ✓ -
79 PFE 10 10 -12.85% $10,000 $8,715 144 52% - -$1,285 -30.4% 3.8d ✓ -
80 DKNG 13 18 -12.99% $10,000 $8,701 221 56% - -$1,299 -46.7% 1.8d ✓ -
81 DIS 8 3 -15.49% $10,000 $8,451 143 48% - -$1,549 -25.4% 3.7d ✓ -
82 REGN 11 6 -17.68% $10,000 $8,232 169 57% - -$1,768 -42.3% 3.1d ✓ -
83 HD 9 3 -18.33% $10,000 $8,167 147 46% - -$1,833 -18.6% 3.9d ✓ -
84 MARA 12 35🔥 -19.41% $10,000 $8,059 320 56% - -$1,941 -40.2% 16.1h ✓ -
85 SQQQ 10 39🔥 -19.67% $10,000 $8,033 242 57% - -$1,967 -53.7% 1.5d ✓ -
86 SOFI 11 31 -21.99% $10,000 $7,801 249 54% - -$2,199 -43.4% 1.4d ✓ -
87 ARKK 12 49🔥 -23.22% $10,000 $7,678 189 60% - -$2,322 -23.5% 2.4d ✓ -
88 SMCI 11 46🔥 -24.94% $10,000 $7,506 287 58% - -$2,494 -63.9% 22.3h ✓ -
89 UNH 10 9 -28.18% $10,000 $7,182 163 55% - -$2,818 -41.5% 3.0d ✓ -
90 IBM 12 9 -32.97% $10,000 $6,703 175 58% - -$3,297 -11.2% 3.4d ✓ -
91 TQQQ 12 17 -34.49% $10,000 $6,551 237 56% - -$3,449 -41.0% 1.5d ✓ -
92 CRM 11 9 -39.61% $10,000 $6,039 182 56% - -$3,961 -46.3% 3.1d ✓ -
93 ACN 8 10 -40.12% $10,000 $5,988 165 51% - -$4,012 -41.3% 3.4d ✓ -
94 SHIBUSD ₿ — — -40.19% 🔄 $10,098 $6,704 87 57% $3,511 -$3,394 -99.3% 8.9h 2 Jan 12, 2026
95 ADBE 9 9 -40.53% $10,000 $5,947 172 51% - -$4,053 -40.9% 3.1d ✓ -
96 VXX 9 14 -47.33% $10,000 $5,267 227 56% - -$4,733 -57.1% 1.8d ✓ -
97 CMCSA 7 6 -52.16% $10,000 $4,784 147 46% - -$5,216 -47.7% 3.7d ✓ -
98 RIOT 11 61🔥 -52.44% $10,000 $4,756 319 59% - -$5,244 -55.6% 17.3h ✓ -
99 NIO 8 6 -56.03% $10,000 $4,397 233 53% - -$5,603 -39.7% 1.4d ✓ -
100 RIVN 10 12 -57.14% $10,000 $4,286 265 58% - -$5,714 -60.0% 1.1d ✓ -
101 AMC 9 53🔥 -62.26% $10,000 $3,774 226 53% - -$6,226 -57.1% 1.4d ✓ -
102 COIN 9 23 -62.27% $10,000 $3,773 285 55% - -$6,227 -67.1% 23.4h ✓ -
103 DOGEUSD ₿ — — -63.11% 🔄 $10,100 $4,428 157 58% $5,179 -$5,672 -99.1% 8.2h 2 Dec 7, 2025
104 LCID 9 53🔥 -67.16% $10,000 $3,284 274 56% - -$6,716 -69.8% 23.6h ✓ -
105 LINKUSD ₿ — — -69.32% 🔄 $10,099 $3,654 165 56% $5,330 -$6,445 -99.1% 9.0h 2 Nov 21, 2025
106 ETHUSD ₿ — — -74.63% 🔄 $10,097 $2,982 168 54% $4,681 -$7,114 -99.2% 15.1h 1 Nov 13, 2025
107 DOTUSD ₿ — — -84.84% 🔄 $10,099 $2,047 243 55% $4,762 -$8,052 -99.0% 9.9h 2 Nov 12, 2025
108 AVAXUSD ₿ — — -88.93% 🔄 $10,098 $1,296 264 54% $5,219 -$8,802 -99.2% 8.7h 2 Oct 10, 2025
109 PEPEUSD ₿ — — -89.13% 🔄 $10,095 $1,258 348 56% $8,303 -$8,837 -99.6% 5.0h 2 Sep 22, 2025
110 XRPUSD ₿ — — -90.04% 🔄 $10,099 $1,179 301 55% $5,991 -$8,920 -99.0% 11.7h 1 Aug 14, 2025
111 UNIUSD ₿ — — -93.49% 🔄 $10,098 $772 394 55% $7,266 -$9,326 -99.1% 8.0h 2 Sep 1, 2025
112 BTCUSD ₿ 10 19 -93.61% $10,000 $639 546 60% $15,941 -$9,361 -95.2% 1.1d ✓ -
113 LTCUSD ₿ — — -96.29% 🔄 $10,097 $443 619 60% $10,066 -$9,654 -99.1% 11.8h 1 Mar 3, 2025
114 SOLUSD ₿ — — -98.70% 🔄 $10,099 $169 772 59% $10,449 -$9,931 -99.1% 9.6h 1 Feb 18, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.