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Rebel Contraire
11

Rebel Contraire

The Rebel

⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)

"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."

Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 May 6, 2026 (124d)

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Rebel Contraire's performance over the year to date across 114 symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$10,995
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,322 ($-326)
-2.88%
Year to Date ROI
56.4%
Win Rate
4,622
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+2.5%
1 Month
-3.3%
3 Months
-5.3%
6 Months
-2.9%
YTD
+1.5%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 114 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Year to Date)

Stock Volume
$39,198,821
3,280 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$3,622,529
1,342 trades
Crypto Fees
$9,056
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS: 3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 5

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 May 6, 2026 (124 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 INTC 33 71🔥 +58.71% $9,744 $15,465 46 70% - +$5,721 -45.8% 1.7d -
2 USO 35 54 +58.46% $9,067 $14,368 38 76% - +$5,301 -29.6% 3.3d -
3 VXX 10 50🔥 +57.71% $5,153 $8,126 48 71% - +$2,974 -57.1% 1.8d -
4 OXY 38 35 +50.29% $10,797 $16,228 36 78% - +$5,430 -31.5% 3.1d -
5 XLE 64 25🧊 +47.01% $13,384 $19,676 27 89% - +$6,292 -12.9% 4.0d -
6 GME 25 36 +35.10% $8,839 $11,942 34 74% - +$3,103 -32.4% 1.4d -
7 ARM 37 68🔥 +32.73% $12,578 $16,694 46 63% - +$4,117 -36.8% 1.4d -
8 COP 30 76🔥 +32.57% $9,569 $12,686 33 73% - +$3,117 -20.4% 3.2d -
9 CVX 72 25🧊 +28.45% $16,701 $21,453 27 78% - +$4,752 -12.9% 3.9d -
10 AMD 22 92🔥 +27.05% $9,099 $11,560 43 70% - +$2,461 -52.6% 1.8d -
11 SPXU 21 9 +26.74% $8,569 $10,861 37 65% - +$2,291 -29.5% 2.3d -
12 IBM 53 59 +26.67% $13,206 $16,728 29 69% - +$3,522 -11.2% 3.4d -
13 SLB 18 71🔥 +24.67% $8,455 $10,541 34 68% - +$2,086 -24.3% 2.9d -
14 XOM 51 48 +24.11% $13,627 $16,912 28 75% - +$3,285 -13.9% 3.6d -
15 MRNA 41 14🧊 +18.93% $17,266 $20,534 47 62% - +$3,268 -42.5% 1.3d -
16 SMCI 12 47🔥 +18.27% $7,068 $8,359 46 61% - +$1,291 -63.9% 22.3h -
17 AMZN 30 76🔥 +18.18% $11,018 $13,021 33 70% - +$2,003 -27.2% 2.9d -
18 NET 36 54 +15.83% $13,061 $15,129 45 62% - +$2,068 -29.4% 1.9d -
19 NFLX 45 13🧊 +15.19% $15,397 $17,736 29 62% - +$2,339 -19.6% 3.1d -
20 GLD 68 34🧊 +14.68% $17,215 $19,742 29 62% - +$2,527 -11.3% 4.4d -
21 XLK 26 81🔥 +14.35% $10,428 $11,924 26 69% - +$1,496 -30.8% 3.7d -
22 WMT 55 33🧊 +14.28% $15,833 $18,094 26 69% - +$2,261 -14.2% 4.1d -
23 KO 33 49 +13.14% $11,595 $13,119 21 76% - +$1,524 -18.7% 4.6d -
24 CSCO 69 59 +11.86% $17,235 $19,280 24 54% - +$2,044 -9.7% 4.0d -
25 GOOGL 58 77 +11.62% $22,289 $24,879 27 59% - +$2,590 -25.1% 3.0d -
26 AXP 57 64 +11.28% $17,276 $19,224 26 62% - +$1,949 -13.8% 3.2d -
27 UVXY 10 56🔥 +10.98% $8,381 $9,301 54 63% - +$920 -48.5% 22.7h -
28 BAC 38 63🔥 +10.71% $13,341 $14,770 27 63% - +$1,429 -19.8% 3.5d -
29 JNJ 45 3🧊 +10.02% $12,867 $14,157 23 52% - +$1,289 -9.8% 4.5d -
30 PANW 44 49 +9.51% $15,192 $16,636 40 70% - +$1,445 -18.6% 2.6d -
31 SNOW 31 13 +8.25% $13,192 $14,281 44 64% - +$1,088 -41.0% 2.0d -
32 COST 32 22 +7.43% $11,987 $12,878 23 65% - +$891 -17.4% 4.1d -
33 PG 18 26 +6.93% $9,783 $10,461 23 52% - +$678 -19.3% 4.7d -
34 AAPL 37 62🔥 +6.81% $13,260 $14,163 22 64% - +$903 -20.3% 3.7d -
35 PFE 9 3 +5.81% $8,067 $8,535 22 64% - +$469 -30.4% 3.8d -
36 RIVN 10 30 +5.73% $4,728 $4,999 47 60% - +$271 -60.0% 1.1d -
37 RIOT 11 42🔥 +5.25% $5,151 $5,421 52 62% - +$270 -55.6% 17.3h -
38 NVDA 44 63 +4.92% $20,915 $21,944 31 58% - +$1,029 -35.3% 1.8d -
39 PEP 20 15 +4.37% $10,206 $10,653 24 63% - +$446 -16.0% 4.4d -
40 VZ 22 5 +3.87% $10,447 $10,851 24 58% - +$404 -15.3% 4.2d -
41 IWM 39 53 +3.23% $13,558 $13,995 23 57% - +$438 -11.9% 3.8d -
42 SPY 53 56 +2.99% $14,470 $14,903 20 60% - +$433 -9.7% 4.8d -
43 QQQ 20 61🔥 +2.96% $10,157 $10,458 22 50% - +$301 -24.0% 4.3d -
44 VOO 55 57 +2.95% $14,897 $15,337 20 55% - +$439 -9.6% 4.9d -
45 JPM 35 38 +2.75% $13,653 $14,028 25 64% - +$375 -21.7% 3.6d -
46 BLK 32 27 +2.07% $12,847 $13,113 28 50% - +$266 -17.7% 3.6d -
47 C 32 64🔥 +1.76% $12,897 $13,124 31 61% - +$227 -21.2% 3.0d -
48 VTI 49 54 +1.47% $14,350 $14,561 20 55% - +$211 -10.5% 4.8d -
49 BMY 10 2 +0.56% $9,182 $9,234 24 54% - +$51 -39.5% 3.0d -
50 SOXL 43 35 +0.44% $20,037 $20,125 53 57% - +$88 -33.0% 20.2h -
51 V 35 57🔥 +0.18% $13,231 $13,255 23 48% - +$24 -11.9% 4.2d -
52 DIA 39 44 +0.15% $13,306 $13,326 20 45% - +$20 -13.6% 5.1d -
53 GILD 38 10🧊 +0.04% $14,732 $14,737 26 58% - +$6 -16.0% 3.6d -
54 AMGN 23 11 -0.06% $11,217 $11,210 26 50% - -$7 -20.8% 3.6d -
55 XLF 35 25 -0.17% $13,443 $13,420 22 55% - -$23 -17.8% 4.8d -
56 MCD 20 2 -0.20% $10,776 $10,754 20 45% - -$22 -15.2% 4.4d -
57 PM 34 56🔥 -0.59% $13,768 $13,686 29 62% - -$81 -19.7% 3.9d -
58 META 33 20 -0.68% $15,112 $15,009 27 56% - -$103 -36.9% 2.8d -
59 PLTR 45 51 -1.58% $19,749 $19,437 46 57% - -$312 -26.0% 1.3d -
60 AVGO 43 57 -1.71% $18,447 $18,131 37 57% - -$315 -21.1% 1.9d -
61 BRK-B 43 10🧊 -3.82% $14,621 $14,063 21 43% - -$559 -10.0% 4.4d -
62 TLT 10 2 -3.92% $9,184 $8,824 18 44% - -$360 -15.8% 5.2d -
63 WFC 35 10🧊 -4.01% $13,996 $13,435 28 57% - -$561 -17.9% 3.2d -
64 PYPL 11 68🔥 -5.49% $8,814 $8,330 33 58% - -$484 -52.5% 2.7d -
65 SQQQ 10 9 -6.01% $6,884 $6,471 44 57% - -$414 -53.7% 1.5d -
66 SCHW 25 3🧊 -6.16% $12,293 $11,536 27 56% - -$757 -16.1% 3.8d -
67 MS 41 66🔥 -6.32% $17,120 $16,038 29 52% - -$1,082 -18.0% 3.4d -
68 COIN 9 26 -6.39% $4,185 $3,918 47 55% - -$267 -67.1% 23.4h -
69 MA 38 18 -6.43% $14,692 $13,747 25 48% - -$945 -12.2% 4.1d -
70 VRTX 21 6 -7.13% $11,544 $10,721 26 46% - -$823 -21.3% 3.5d -
71 ORCL 32 31 -7.54% $16,303 $15,074 39 51% - -$1,229 -37.5% 2.4d -
72 CRM 10 27 -7.83% $7,112 $6,555 34 59% - -$557 -46.3% 3.1d -
73 ACN 8 36🔥 -8.22% $7,415 $6,805 31 55% - -$610 -41.3% 3.4d -
74 BIIB 10 27 -8.36% $9,205 $8,436 30 50% - -$770 -32.7% 3.0d -
75 TMO 10 6 -8.48% $9,667 $8,847 29 52% - -$820 -23.9% 3.6d -
76 NIO 9 53🔥 -8.75% $7,899 $7,208 40 55% - -$691 -39.7% 1.4d -
77 MSFT 29 64🔥 -10.04% $13,850 $12,460 27 56% - -$1,391 -19.1% 3.9d -
78 AMC 9 13 -10.76% $4,796 $4,280 38 50% - -$516 -57.1% 1.4d -
79 DKNG 12 50🔥 -11.14% $9,249 $8,219 41 54% - -$1,030 -46.7% 1.8d -
80 MRK 12 9 -11.14% $10,209 $9,072 28 54% - -$1,137 -29.6% 3.5d -
81 GS 57 13🧊 -11.44% $21,993 $19,477 30 47% - -$2,516 -13.2% 3.2d -
82 ADBE 9 53🔥 -11.60% $7,564 $6,686 31 55% - -$877 -40.9% 3.1d -
83 REGN 11 6 -12.22% $9,057 $7,950 26 46% - -$1,107 -42.3% 3.1d -
84 DIS 8 3 -12.46% $9,822 $8,598 23 39% - -$1,224 -25.4% 3.7d -
85 LLY 23 7 -12.57% $13,195 $11,536 33 42% - -$1,659 -33.4% 2.6d -
86 MU 40 42 -13.74% $21,092 $18,194 48 54% - -$2,898 -32.2% 1.8d -
87 TSLA 28 63🔥 -13.83% $14,751 $12,711 34 50% - -$2,040 -37.6% 1.5d -
88 UNH 10 64🔥 -14.30% $8,758 $7,506 24 46% - -$1,252 -41.5% 3.0d -
89 HD 16 5 -14.56% $12,195 $10,419 26 31% - -$1,776 -18.6% 3.9d -
90 MDT 7 5 -15.46% $10,550 $8,919 24 29% - -$1,631 -15.1% 4.3d -
91 CMCSA 6 2 -16.79% $6,463 $5,378 23 39% - -$1,085 -47.7% 3.7d -
92 ISRG 17 5 -16.82% $12,375 $10,294 27 37% - -$2,082 -39.2% 3.1d -
93 BTCUSD 11 76🔥 -17.84% $905 $744 111 60% $15,696 -$162 -95.2% 1.1d -
94 LCID 9 15 -19.37% $3,937 $3,175 47 53% - -$763 -69.8% 23.6h -
95 ABBV 13 3 -24.00% $13,257 $10,075 27 41% - -$3,182 -25.0% 3.7d -
96 CRWD 13 27 -24.76% $12,448 $9,366 38 47% - -$3,082 -37.8% 1.8d -
97 SLV 30 7🧊 -25.55% $16,907 $12,587 43 47% - -$4,320 -18.7% 2.8d -
98 HOOD 11 32🔥 -27.73% $13,034 $9,420 43 44% - -$3,614 -32.1% 1.3d -
99 ARKK 11 9 -31.87% $11,530 $7,855 32 41% - -$3,675 -23.5% 2.4d -
100 SOFI 10 15 -33.58% $11,841 $7,865 42 45% - -$3,976 -43.4% 1.4d -
101 SHIBUSD -33.61% $10,098 $6,704 87 57% $3,511 -$3,394 -99.3% 8.9h 2 Jan 12, 2026
102 MARA 11 13 -37.15% $10,549 $6,630 55 45% - -$3,919 -40.2% 16.1h -
103 LTCUSD -40.31% $742 $443 95 57% $10,066 -$299 -99.1% 11.8h 1 Mar 3, 2025
104 DOGEUSD -41.24% $7,536 $4,428 121 59% $5,179 -$3,108 -99.1% 8.2h 2 Dec 7, 2025
105 TQQQ 11 35🔥 -41.32% $9,756 $5,725 40 38% - -$4,031 -41.0% 1.5d -
106 RBLX 31 12 -41.85% $23,119 $13,444 46 48% - -$9,675 -34.9% 1.9d -
107 AVAXUSD -41.95% $2,232 $1,296 99 58% $5,219 -$936 -99.2% 8.7h 2 Oct 10, 2025
108 DOTUSD -44.06% $3,659 $2,047 141 58% $4,762 -$1,612 -99.0% 9.9h 2 Nov 12, 2025
109 XRPUSD -48.25% $2,278 $1,179 113 56% $5,991 -$1,099 -99.0% 11.7h 1 Aug 14, 2025
110 LINKUSD -49.71% $7,266 $3,654 106 55% $5,330 -$3,612 -99.1% 9.0h 2 Nov 21, 2025
111 ETHUSD -50.70% $6,050 $2,982 99 53% $4,681 -$3,067 -99.2% 15.1h 1 Nov 13, 2025
112 PEPEUSD -50.98% $2,565 $1,258 141 57% $8,303 -$1,308 -99.6% 5.0h 2 Sep 22, 2025
113 SOLUSD -54.11% $367 $169 115 54% $10,449 -$199 -99.1% 9.6h 1 Feb 18, 2025
114 UNIUSD -59.66% $1,913 $772 114 53% $7,266 -$1,141 -99.1% 8.0h 2 Sep 1, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.