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Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Feb 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (88d)
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 Last 3 Months Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the last 3 months across 12 crypto symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$4,094
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $5,884 ($-1,790)
-30.42%
Last 3 Months ROI
38.0%
Win Rate
349
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-3.5%
1 Month
-30.4%
3 Months
-53.0%
6 Months
-38.6%
YTD
-55.5%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 3 Months)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Last 3 Months)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$1,145,799
349 trades
Crypto Fees
$2,864
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 3 Months: Feb 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (88 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 3M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 BTCUSD 5 72🔥 +14.76% $3,293 $3,779 30 47% $12,692 +$486 -78.6% 2.4d -
2 SOLUSD +9.96% $10,092 $11,098 27 44% $1,398 +$1,005 -99.5% 21.3h 1 Feb 6, 2026
3 ETHUSD 2 33🔥 +6.91% $313 $334 49 41% $9,922 +$22 -98.0% 1.4d -
4 LTCUSD 3 27🔥 -5.81% $529 $498 29 41% $10,388 -$31 -95.7% 1.1d -
5 XRPUSD 3 34🔥 -21.39% $417 $328 36 36% $12,800 -$89 -96.4% 1.1d -
6 DOGEUSD -38.34% $10,100 $6,228 24 33% $1,312 -$3,872 -99.3% 18.0h 1 Jan 31, 2026
7 SHIBUSD -47.69% $10,098 $5,282 24 33% $2,493 -$4,816 -99.5% 19.9h 1 Dec 18, 2025
8 AVAXUSD -51.29% $3,806 $1,854 21 38% $8,581 -$1,952 -99.1% 18.6h 1 Jun 22, 2025
9 LINKUSD -51.38% $11,026 $5,361 21 43% $2,618 -$5,665 -99.3% 19.5h 1 Dec 1, 2025
10 PEPEUSD -52.17% $10,096 $4,829 33 30% $4,168 -$5,267 -99.9% 10.8h 1 Dec 18, 2025
11 UNIUSD -59.87% $5,186 $2,081 28 36% $5,345 -$3,105 -99.3% 16.8h 1 Sep 25, 2025
12 DOTUSD -68.71% $5,649 $1,767 27 33% $8,684 -$3,881 -99.1% 21.7h 1 Jun 21, 2025

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.