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Professor Mean
8

Professor Mean

The Mathematician

📐 Swing Trader 📅 146 years old (Born 1880)

"Price is a drunk stumbling home. It may wander, but it always returns to the mean."

Impossibly old—a walking artifact from the Victorian era. Bow tie, antique spectacles, chalk dust on his academic robes. His hands shake slightly, but his mind is sharp.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Feb 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (88d)
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 Last 3 Months Performance: Showing Professor Mean's performance over the last 3 months across 12 crypto symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$3,109
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $6,409 ($-3,301)
-51.50%
Last 3 Months ROI
24.8%
Win Rate
1,069
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-8.7%
1 Month
-51.5%
3 Months
-59.4%
6 Months
-43.7%
YTD
-60.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 3 Months)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Last 3 Months)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$2,801,808
1,069 trades
Crypto Fees
$7,005
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Trade 2 standard deviation extremes back to mean

When price moves 2 standard deviations from its 20-day average, the move is statistically extreme. Professor Mean profits from the inevitable return to normalcy.

🎯 Best Suited For

Range-bound stocks and ETFs

"Everything reverts to the mean. Everything."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets overreact. Good news pushes prices above fair value; bad news pushes them below. Extremes are by definition unsustainable.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

Z-Score ≤ -2.0 (price is 2+ std devs below mean)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Rules

• MEAN_REVERSION: Z-Score ≥ 0 (price returned to mean)
• STOP_LOSS: Z-Score ≤ -3.0 OR price ≤ entry × 0.92 (-8%)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 10 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

MEAN_PERIOD: 20
ENTRY_STD_DEVS: 2
EXIT_AT_MEAN: 1
STOP_LOSS_STD_DEVS: 3
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 10

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Sir Francis Galton's regression to the mean

Sir Francis Galton was a polymath who, in the 1880s, discovered "regression toward mediocrity" while studying hereditary traits. The principle was universal: extreme measurements tend to be followed by less extreme ones.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 3 Months: Feb 6, 2026 May 6, 2026 (88 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 3M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 PEPEUSD +0.00% $10,000 $10,000 NO ENTRY - - - -0.0% 0.0h -
2 SHIBUSD +0.00% $10,000 $10,000 NO ENTRY - - - -0.0% 0.0h -
3 DOTUSD -3.15% $10,100 $9,781 104 31% $5,137 -$318 -99.1% 1.0h 5 Feb 6, 2026
4 DOGEUSD -7.61% $3,995 $3,691 6 50% $7,010 -$304 -150.9% 4.0h 1 Jul 30, 2025
5 AVAXUSD -39.62% $10,100 $6,098 126 23% $6,777 -$4,002 -99.0% 1.1h 5 Jan 25, 2026
6 ETHUSD -46.97% $10,099 $5,356 125 25% $7,489 -$4,744 -99.0% 1.0h 5 Jan 22, 2026
7 LTCUSD -85.74% $2,738 $390 124 25% $12,903 -$2,347 -99.1% 1.0h 4 Oct 10, 2025
8 UNIUSD -85.94% $4,609 $648 117 35% $8,974 -$3,961 -99.1% 1.0h 4 Nov 11, 2025
9 BTCUSD -86.31% $3,629 $497 121 17% $10,511 -$3,132 -99.0% 1.0h 4 Oct 30, 2025
10 LINKUSD -86.38% $7,696 $1,048 120 34% $9,935 -$6,648 -99.0% 1.0h 4 Nov 25, 2025
11 XRPUSD -87.76% $1,337 $164 113 27% $11,835 -$1,174 -99.0% 1.2h 3 Sep 14, 2025
12 SOLUSD -88.46% $2,610 $301 113 30% $8,569 -$2,309 -99.1% 1.0h 4 Oct 27, 2025

👤 Personality

Speaks in equations. Finds human behavior predictable and slightly disappointing. Gets genuinely excited about standard deviations.