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Rebel Contraire
11

Rebel Contraire

The Rebel

⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)

"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."

Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

📊 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114
Feb 6, 2026 → May 6, 2026 (88d)
📊 Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
🎯 Asset: 📈 Stocks 102 ₿ Crypto 12 🌐 All 114
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 Last 3 Months Performance: Showing Rebel Contraire's performance over the last 3 months across 12 crypto symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$2,261
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $4,790 ($-2,529)
-52.80%
Last 3 Months ROI
60.5%
Win Rate
578
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-10.0%
1 Month
-52.8%
3 Months
-73.2%
6 Months
-44.4%
YTD
-76.2%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 3 Months)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (Last 3 Months)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$1,123,303
578 trades
Crypto Fees
$2,808
0.25% of volume

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal

After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.

🎯 Best Suited For

Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades

"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS: 3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 5

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"

Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

BTCUSD ₿
+12.6%
74 trades
SHIBUSD ₿
-33.6%
34 trades
LTCUSD ₿
-50.4%
44 trades
AVAXUSD ₿
-55.2%
43 trades
DOGEUSD ₿
-56.2%
48 trades
ETHUSD ₿
-60.6%
44 trades
XRPUSD ₿
-61.2%
46 trades
LINKUSD ₿
-62.7%
44 trades
DOTUSD ₿
-63.2%
66 trades
SOLUSD ₿
-66.8%
60 trades

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

UNIUSD ₿
-68.7%
41 trades
PEPEUSD ₿
-67.7%
34 trades
SOLUSD ₿
-66.8%
60 trades
DOTUSD ₿
-63.2%
66 trades
LINKUSD ₿
-62.7%
44 trades

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 3 Months: Feb 6, 2026 → May 6, 2026 (88 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 3M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 BTCUSD ₿ 11 76🔥 +12.64% $660 $744 74 65% $15,696 +$83 -95.2% 1.1d ✓ -
2 SHIBUSD ₿ — — -33.61% $10,098 $6,704 34 59% $3,511 -$3,394 -99.3% 8.9h 2 Jan 12, 2026
3 LTCUSD ₿ — — -50.37% $892 $443 44 61% $10,066 -$449 -99.1% 11.8h 1 Mar 3, 2025
4 AVAXUSD ₿ — — -55.24% $2,895 $1,296 43 67% $5,219 -$1,599 -99.2% 8.7h 2 Oct 10, 2025
5 DOGEUSD ₿ — — -56.16% $10,101 $4,428 48 63% $5,179 -$5,672 -99.1% 8.2h 2 Dec 7, 2025
6 ETHUSD ₿ — — -60.59% $7,568 $2,982 44 59% $4,681 -$4,585 -99.2% 15.1h 1 Nov 13, 2025
7 XRPUSD ₿ — — -61.20% $3,039 $1,179 46 61% $5,991 -$1,860 -99.0% 11.7h 1 Aug 14, 2025
8 LINKUSD ₿ — — -62.71% $9,798 $3,654 44 59% $5,330 -$6,145 -99.1% 9.0h 2 Nov 21, 2025
9 DOTUSD ₿ — — -63.16% $5,556 $2,047 66 64% $4,762 -$3,509 -99.0% 9.9h 2 Nov 12, 2025
10 SOLUSD ₿ — — -66.75% $507 $169 60 58% $10,449 -$338 -99.1% 9.6h 1 Feb 18, 2025
11 PEPEUSD ₿ — — -67.73% $3,897 $1,258 34 59% $8,303 -$2,639 -99.6% 5.0h 2 Sep 22, 2025
12 UNIUSD ₿ — — -68.69% $2,465 $772 41 51% $7,266 -$1,693 -99.1% 8.0h 2 Sep 1, 2025

👤 Personality

Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.