Rebel Contraire
The Rebel
⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."
Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.
ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.
📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Rebel Contraire $10,000 and let him trade 12 crypto symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE
Quick Performance Comparison
Click any period to view detailed stats
Equity Curve (2 Years)
Combined P&L across all 12 symbols
💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)
⚠️ Important Note:
This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled).
Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.
Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.
⚙️ Trading Strategy
Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal
After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.
🎯 Best Suited For
Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades
📜 Why This Strategy Works
Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.
Mathematical Formula
CODE VERIFIED —
These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php
📊 Entry Signal
📈 Entry Signal
📉 Exit Conditions
⚙️ Simulation Parameters
📖 Historical Origin
Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"
Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.
🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📊 All Symbol Results
Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
| Rank | Symbol | Score | Mom | Return | Start | Final Value | Trades | Win Rate | Fees | Net | Max DD | Avg Hold | Refunds | Last Refund | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SHIBUSD ₿
|
— | — | -40.19% | 🔄 $10,098 | $6,704 | 87 | 57% | $3,511 | -$3,394 | -99.3% | 8.9h | 2 | Jan 12, 2026 | |
| 2 |
DOGEUSD ₿
|
— | — | -63.11% | 🔄 $10,100 | $4,428 | 157 | 58% | $5,179 | -$5,672 | -99.1% | 8.2h | 2 | Dec 7, 2025 | |
| 3 |
LINKUSD ₿
|
— | — | -69.32% | 🔄 $10,099 | $3,654 | 165 | 56% | $5,330 | -$6,445 | -99.1% | 9.0h | 2 | Nov 21, 2025 | |
| 4 |
ETHUSD ₿
|
— | — | -74.63% | 🔄 $10,097 | $2,982 | 168 | 54% | $4,681 | -$7,114 | -99.2% | 15.1h | 1 | Nov 13, 2025 | |
| 5 |
DOTUSD ₿
|
— | — | -84.84% | 🔄 $10,099 | $2,047 | 243 | 55% | $4,762 | -$8,052 | -99.0% | 9.9h | 2 | Nov 12, 2025 | |
| 6 |
AVAXUSD ₿
|
— | — | -88.93% | 🔄 $10,098 | $1,296 | 264 | 54% | $5,219 | -$8,802 | -99.2% | 8.7h | 2 | Oct 10, 2025 | |
| 7 |
PEPEUSD ₿
|
— | — | -89.13% | 🔄 $10,095 | $1,258 | 348 | 56% | $8,303 | -$8,837 | -99.6% | 5.0h | 2 | Sep 22, 2025 | |
| 8 |
XRPUSD ₿
|
— | — | -90.04% | 🔄 $10,099 | $1,179 | 301 | 55% | $5,991 | -$8,920 | -99.0% | 11.7h | 1 | Aug 14, 2025 | |
| 9 |
BTCUSD ₿
|
11 | 76🔥 | -92.56% | $10,000 | $744 | 596 | 60% | $15,696 | -$9,256 | -95.2% | 1.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 10 |
UNIUSD ₿
|
— | — | -93.49% | 🔄 $10,098 | $772 | 394 | 55% | $7,266 | -$9,326 | -99.1% | 8.0h | 2 | Sep 1, 2025 | |
| 11 |
LTCUSD ₿
|
— | — | -96.29% | 🔄 $10,097 | $443 | 619 | 60% | $10,066 | -$9,654 | -99.1% | 11.8h | 1 | Mar 3, 2025 | |
| 12 |
SOLUSD ₿
|
— | — | -98.70% | 🔄 $10,099 | $169 | 772 | 59% | $10,449 | -$9,931 | -99.1% | 9.6h | 1 | Feb 18, 2025 |
👤 Personality
Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.