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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Sep 24, 2025 → Sep 24, 2026 (365d)

📊 Last Year Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the last year across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,160
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,906 (+$254)
+2.33%
Last Year ROI
32.4%
Win Rate
12,533
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-0.5%
1 Month
+0.2%
3 Months
+2.1%
6 Months
+1.3%
YTD
+2.3%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Year)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Year: Sep 24, 2025 → Sep 24, 2026 (365 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1Y Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MRNA 4 21 +72.14% $3,898 $6,711 127 38% - +$2,812 -67.6% 11.1h ✓ -
2 HOOD 40 9🧊 +38.33% $13,545 $18,737 118 34% - +$5,192 -21.5% 10.9h ✓ -
3 ARKK 37 36 +37.17% $10,959 $15,033 126 33% - +$4,074 -13.9% 11.5h ✓ -
4 MRK 29 9 +35.94% $9,922 $13,487 123 41% - +$3,566 -15.0% 11.4h ✓ -
5 PANW 56 20🧊 +35.92% $13,521 $18,377 115 40% - +$4,857 -10.2% 10.2h ✓ -
6 USO 35 59🔥 +32.49% $11,012 $14,590 122 37% - +$3,578 -11.7% 10.8h ✓ -
7 INTC 20 67🔥 +30.32% $9,540 $12,433 128 32% - +$2,893 -21.5% 7.8h ✓ -
8 RIVN 36 9🧊 +27.20% $16,432 $20,902 121 39% - +$4,470 -33.5% 10.9h ✓ -
9 SMCI 28 70🔥 +26.29% $13,758 $17,375 126 29% - +$3,617 -43.0% 10.0h ✓ -
10 SCHW 62 9🧊 +24.62% $13,306 $16,582 118 42% - +$3,276 -6.9% 10.9h ✓ -
11 XLK 37 43 +23.40% $11,817 $14,582 114 40% - +$2,765 -13.1% 10.5h ✓ -
12 XOM 36 42 +23.33% $10,593 $13,065 122 35% - +$2,471 -7.7% 11.2h ✓ -
13 RIOT 27 41 +22.82% $12,561 $15,428 121 34% - +$2,866 -34.2% 9.1h ✓ -
14 MU 3 9 +22.30% $6,966 $8,520 113 38% - +$1,553 -48.4% 10.8h ✓ -
15 GME 35 45 +21.32% $14,614 $17,730 131 34% - +$3,116 -22.2% 8.2h ✓ -
16 META 15 32 +20.42% $9,087 $10,943 125 31% - +$1,856 -28.5% 9.8h ✓ -
17 AMGN 52 24🧊 +20.28% $12,155 $14,620 134 36% - +$2,465 -5.9% 10.1h ✓ -
18 BIIB 8 47🔥 +18.75% $8,525 $10,124 132 31% - +$1,598 -21.8% 9.1h ✓ -
19 LLY 33 9🧊 +18.59% $12,476 $14,795 127 33% - +$2,319 -13.5% 10.7h ✓ -
20 GS 49 32 +18.19% $13,307 $15,728 126 35% - +$2,421 -8.5% 10.1h ✓ -
21 SNOW 16 9 +15.84% $9,789 $11,339 122 29% - +$1,551 -21.1% 10.3h ✓ -
22 SLV 24 9 +15.48% $10,505 $12,131 119 34% - +$1,626 -14.1% 11.3h ✓ -
23 ABBV 11 14 +14.03% $9,111 $10,390 134 35% - +$1,278 -20.2% 10.6h ✓ -
24 AXP 20 5 +13.41% $10,246 $11,620 123 33% - +$1,374 -17.9% 10.5h ✓ -
25 RBLX 22 81🔥 +11.40% $11,309 $12,599 129 33% - +$1,289 -23.0% 10.9h ✓ -
26 BAC 19 5 +11.32% $10,233 $11,391 113 39% - +$1,158 -19.3% 10.2h ✓ -
27 WFC 33 18 +11.10% $12,284 $13,648 120 34% - +$1,364 -10.6% 11.2h ✓ -
28 TSLA 4 66🔥 +10.98% $8,072 $8,958 120 33% - +$886 -26.6% 10.7h ✓ -
29 NFLX 26 6 +10.07% $11,584 $12,750 120 38% - +$1,166 -13.6% 11.4h ✓ -
30 AMD 10 75🔥 +9.89% $9,347 $10,272 126 36% - +$924 -38.6% 8.9h ✓ -
31 CSCO 42 9🧊 +8.98% $12,336 $13,444 121 37% - +$1,108 -5.8% 11.6h ✓ -
32 VRTX 30 9🧊 +8.77% $11,808 $12,844 129 31% - +$1,036 -9.6% 11.3h ✓ -
33 CVX 27 35 +8.42% $11,501 $12,469 127 32% - +$968 -10.7% 11.2h ✓ -
34 PM 55 7🧊 +8.21% $13,295 $14,386 121 34% - +$1,092 -4.1% 12.3h ✓ -
35 MA 24 9 +7.90% $10,802 $11,655 130 31% - +$853 -9.3% 9.0h ✓ -
36 PEP 31 9🧊 +7.78% $11,111 $11,976 122 34% - +$864 -6.0% 11.3h ✓ -
37 LCID 26 9 +7.45% $13,471 $14,474 123 29% - +$1,004 -23.9% 10.4h ✓ -
38 V 4 33🔥 +7.40% $9,191 $9,871 119 37% - +$680 -12.2% 10.0h ✓ -
39 CRWD 30 61🔥 +6.53% $14,936 $15,912 114 35% - +$975 -20.9% 11.7h ✓ -
40 WMT 52 7🧊 +6.39% $13,948 $14,840 117 32% - +$891 -6.4% 14.1h ✓ -
41 JNJ 8 9 +6.14% $9,648 $10,241 120 30% - +$592 -10.9% 11.3h ✓ -
42 BMY 4 9 +5.36% $9,102 $9,590 126 33% - +$488 -14.5% 9.3h ✓ -
43 SLB 17 32 +4.13% $10,666 $11,106 119 34% - +$440 -17.0% 9.5h ✓ -
44 BRK-B 4 9 +4.02% $9,025 $9,388 124 30% - +$363 -16.1% 10.0h ✓ -
45 VTI 12 37🔥 +3.76% $9,892 $10,264 117 36% - +$372 -11.1% 8.5h ✓ -
46 IWM 23 3 +3.75% $10,956 $11,367 120 29% - +$411 -8.0% 9.6h ✓ -
47 VZ 4 7 +3.25% $8,449 $8,724 118 36% - +$275 -22.5% 13.2h ✓ -
48 SQQQ 17 7 +1.49% $11,289 $11,457 122 30% - +$168 -27.4% 9.4h ✓ -
49 PLTR 41 9🧊 +1.14% $20,192 $20,422 124 27% - +$230 -23.6% 12.0h ✓ -
50 DIA 5 9 +0.79% $9,782 $9,859 119 29% - +$77 -8.0% 11.1h ✓ -
51 JPM 30 9🧊 +0.59% $12,636 $12,711 118 31% - +$75 -9.6% 10.5h ✓ -
52 KO 16 9 +0.27% $10,566 $10,594 114 34% - +$29 -6.4% 13.1h ✓ -
53 XLF 19 19 +0.12% $10,851 $10,864 121 35% - +$13 -6.8% 10.7h ✓ -
54 GOOGL 21 9 -0.34% $12,231 $12,190 123 33% - -$42 -22.4% 10.5h ✓ -
55 PFE 4 5 -0.51% $8,558 $8,514 123 32% - -$44 -20.1% 11.0h ✓ -
56 COP 15 10 -0.65% $10,679 $10,610 129 29% - -$69 -13.6% 9.7h ✓ -
57 COIN 13 45🔥 -0.71% $10,682 $10,606 122 31% - -$76 -23.0% 10.2h ✓ -
58 GLD 43 9🧊 -1.03% $13,630 $13,489 119 36% - -$140 -6.1% 12.6h ✓ -
59 MSFT 11 14 -1.04% $10,459 $10,350 120 33% - -$109 -19.0% 11.5h ✓ -
60 ORCL 5 9 -1.57% $8,501 $8,367 119 37% - -$133 -31.9% 11.8h ✓ -
61 QQQ 19 30 -2.33% $11,189 $10,928 118 32% - -$261 -9.3% 11.6h ✓ -
62 HD 4 6 -2.40% $9,404 $9,179 119 27% - -$226 -11.0% 10.3h ✓ -
63 SPY 19 11 -2.53% $11,053 $10,774 121 33% - -$280 -6.4% 9.3h ✓ -
64 AMZN 5 6 -2.62% $9,184 $8,944 121 33% - -$241 -24.3% 11.0h ✓ -
65 SOXL 4 9 -2.94% $8,552 $8,301 115 37% - -$251 -51.2% 11.0h ✓ -
66 XLE 4 19 -3.14% $9,713 $9,408 129 40% - -$305 -13.2% 11.6h ✓ -
67 TMO 5 9 -4.08% $9,835 $9,434 125 34% - -$401 -14.5% 9.4h ✓ -
68 DIS 4 7 -4.25% $9,718 $9,305 125 31% - -$413 -15.9% 8.6h ✓ -
69 VOO 20 13 -4.47% $11,244 $10,741 121 32% - -$503 -4.8% 8.9h ✓ -
70 C 17 18 -5.05% $11,706 $11,115 122 37% - -$591 -16.6% 10.1h ✓ -
71 MCD 4 7 -5.23% $8,897 $8,432 123 32% - -$465 -16.7% 11.1h ✓ -
72 COST 8 11 -6.60% $10,862 $10,146 130 32% - -$717 -8.3% 12.2h ✓ -
73 TLT 4 16 -6.80% $9,578 $8,926 123 28% - -$651 -7.1% 12.0h ✓ -
74 CMCSA 11 7 -7.90% $10,799 $9,946 120 35% - -$853 -8.3% 10.3h ✓ -
75 PG 19 17 -10.30% $11,958 $10,726 123 28% - -$1,232 -4.6% 11.1h ✓ -
76 GILD 3 9 -10.68% $9,056 $8,088 124 24% - -$967 -19.1% 8.9h ✓ -
77 CRM 17 7 -11.59% $12,667 $11,199 125 34% - -$1,468 -15.0% 9.6h ✓ -
78 PYPL 4 6 -11.66% $10,123 $8,943 115 23% - -$1,180 -14.2% 12.0h ✓ -
79 AAPL 4 29🔥 -11.75% $9,708 $8,568 122 30% - -$1,141 -16.9% 8.9h ✓ -
80 DKNG 15 6 -11.85% $12,405 $10,935 127 25% - -$1,470 -25.0% 11.5h ✓ -
81 ARM 3 51🔥 -12.16% $4,839 $4,250 125 34% - -$588 -53.7% 10.4h ✓ -
82 MS 5 5 -12.43% $11,235 $9,838 123 38% - -$1,397 -12.1% 8.7h ✓ -
83 AVGO 4 48🔥 -13.24% $10,618 $9,212 124 35% - -$1,406 -26.2% 12.5h ✓ -
84 MARA 27 25 -13.42% $18,935 $16,394 129 29% - -$2,541 -35.1% 9.9h ✓ -
85 UNH 5 9 -13.44% $9,907 $8,576 122 28% - -$1,332 -17.4% 9.8h ✓ -
86 BLK 12 10 -13.87% $12,028 $10,359 137 26% - -$1,668 -8.6% 12.4h ✓ -
87 UVXY 22 7 -14.40% $15,809 $13,532 135 27% - -$2,276 -23.5% 7.4h ✓ -
88 NVDA 8 6 -14.96% $11,706 $9,955 122 29% - -$1,751 -30.4% 9.6h ✓ -
89 NET 5 45🔥 -15.90% $9,695 $8,153 128 28% - -$1,541 -27.1% 9.4h ✓ -
90 ADBE 4 9 -16.13% $9,044 $7,585 128 35% - -$1,459 -20.5% 12.0h ✓ -
91 IBM 5 25 -16.26% $9,618 $8,054 123 33% - -$1,564 -12.8% 9.8h ✓ -
92 ISRG 5 9 -16.83% $10,671 $8,875 121 29% - -$1,796 -10.1% 11.6h ✓ -
93 SOFI 38 9🧊 -17.43% $23,071 $19,050 120 33% - -$4,021 -22.8% 11.5h ✓ -
94 TQQQ 4 25🔥 -18.03% $8,771 $7,190 119 29% - -$1,581 -36.1% 10.2h ✓ -
95 SPXU 3 37🔥 -19.66% $9,157 $7,357 102 29% - -$1,800 -29.7% 20.5h ✓ -
96 REGN 2 7 -19.87% $6,896 $5,525 130 27% - -$1,370 -33.9% 8.9h ✓ -
97 MDT 4 6 -20.78% $9,864 $7,815 119 26% - -$2,050 -12.9% 12.0h ✓ -
98 ACN 5 7 -21.26% $10,025 $7,894 121 30% - -$2,131 -7.8% 11.9h ✓ -
99 OXY 5 9 -23.11% $10,155 $7,808 126 30% - -$2,347 -14.1% 11.1h ✓ -
100 VXX 3 9 -37.47% $10,590 $6,622 133 22% - -$3,968 -42.2% 8.2h ✓ -
101 AMC 2 9 -40.47% $4,584 $2,729 138 23% - -$1,855 -67.5% 9.0h ✓ -
102 NIO 2 7 -42.83% $6,845 $3,913 125 22% - -$2,932 -42.7% 8.8h ✓ -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.