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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jul 1, 2025 Jul 1, 2026 (365d)

📊 Last Year Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the last year across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,203
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,778 (+$425)
+3.95%
Last Year ROI
31.1%
Win Rate
13,109
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-1.5%
1 Month
+1.9%
3 Months
+1.0%
6 Months
+1.0%
YTD
+3.9%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Year)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Year)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Year: Jul 1, 2025 Jul 1, 2026 (365 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1Y Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MU 14 9 +96.64% $5,370 $10,560 123 38% - +$5,190 -48.4% 10.8h -
2 RIVN 43 5🧊 +74.94% $13,673 $23,920 124 36% - +$10,247 -33.5% 10.9h -
3 MRNA 4 57🔥 +64.67% $3,958 $6,518 136 37% - +$2,560 -67.6% 11.1h -
4 SNOW 23 6 +34.23% $9,788 $13,139 129 31% - +$3,351 -21.1% 10.3h -
5 XLK 36 31 +33.43% $10,768 $14,368 117 43% - +$3,600 -13.1% 10.5h -
6 PANW 51 36 +33.35% $12,941 $17,257 121 38% - +$4,316 -10.2% 10.2h -
7 USO 32 6🧊 +31.66% $10,610 $13,969 126 33% - +$3,359 -11.7% 10.8h -
8 GOOGL 23 26 +28.67% $9,895 $12,733 129 36% - +$2,837 -22.4% 10.5h -
9 MRK 27 56🔥 +28.64% $9,998 $12,861 128 40% - +$2,863 -15.0% 11.4h -
10 CSCO 54 9🧊 +24.81% $11,820 $14,753 127 36% - +$2,933 -5.8% 11.6h -
11 LLY 37 40 +24.18% $12,340 $15,324 128 36% - +$2,984 -13.5% 10.7h -
12 ABBV 13 10 +22.20% $8,623 $10,538 133 36% - +$1,914 -20.2% 10.6h -
13 LCID 29 5🧊 +22.06% $12,916 $15,766 129 25% - +$2,849 -23.9% 10.4h -
14 BIIB 5 21 +21.78% $8,010 $9,755 134 31% - +$1,745 -21.8% 9.1h -
15 GS 44 6🧊 +21.65% $12,335 $15,006 130 35% - +$2,671 -8.5% 10.1h -
16 SCHW 54 49 +21.23% $12,726 $15,428 122 39% - +$2,702 -6.9% 10.9h -
17 DKNG 25 41 +18.51% $11,553 $13,691 135 29% - +$2,138 -25.0% 11.5h -
18 SLV 23 3 +17.89% $10,244 $12,077 121 35% - +$1,833 -14.1% 11.3h -
19 WFC 31 44 +15.44% $11,361 $13,115 125 32% - +$1,754 -10.6% 11.2h -
20 CVX 29 9 +13.97% $11,114 $12,666 132 31% - +$1,553 -10.7% 11.2h -
21 AXP 21 54🔥 +13.47% $10,219 $11,596 129 32% - +$1,377 -17.9% 10.5h -
22 BAC 19 41🔥 +13.41% $9,993 $11,333 122 39% - +$1,340 -19.3% 10.2h -
23 AMGN 45 49 +13.37% $12,029 $13,637 142 32% - +$1,608 -5.9% 10.1h -
24 INTC 11 9 +13.29% $9,165 $10,383 132 27% - +$1,218 -21.5% 7.8h -
25 RIOT 23 9 +13.15% $11,819 $13,373 128 30% - +$1,554 -34.2% 9.1h -
26 SLB 11 9 +12.84% $9,022 $10,180 130 32% - +$1,158 -17.0% 9.5h -
27 VRTX 31 9🧊 +12.82% $11,572 $13,056 133 34% - +$1,484 -9.6% 11.3h -
28 XOM 25 9 +12.11% $10,263 $11,506 130 36% - +$1,243 -7.7% 11.2h -
29 PM 54 9🧊 +11.84% $12,760 $14,270 121 28% - +$1,511 -4.1% 12.3h -
30 ARKK 24 35 +11.51% $10,996 $12,262 129 29% - +$1,266 -13.9% 11.5h -
31 BMY 4 26🔥 +11.22% $8,621 $9,589 132 32% - +$967 -14.5% 9.3h -
32 SOFI 44 6🧊 +11.04% $19,341 $21,476 126 31% - +$2,135 -22.8% 11.5h -
33 HOOD 32 24 +10.01% $14,430 $15,874 125 27% - +$1,444 -21.5% 10.9h -
34 PEP 28 18 +9.06% $10,729 $11,701 128 34% - +$972 -6.0% 11.3h -
35 GME 33 76🔥 +9.02% $15,162 $16,530 140 26% - +$1,368 -22.2% 8.2h -
36 ORCL 5 7 +8.63% $8,476 $9,208 124 35% - +$732 -31.9% 11.8h -
37 JNJ 10 11 +7.08% $9,561 $10,238 125 31% - +$677 -10.9% 11.3h -
38 ARM 3 42🔥 +7.03% $5,360 $5,737 129 34% - +$377 -53.7% 10.4h -
39 SOXL 4 14 +6.90% $8,954 $9,572 115 37% - +$618 -51.2% 11.0h -
40 IWM 27 16 +5.97% $11,264 $11,936 128 28% - +$672 -8.0% 9.6h -
41 MA 22 45🔥 +5.91% $10,730 $11,364 134 26% - +$634 -9.3% 9.0h -
42 DIA 8 24 +5.56% $9,554 $10,085 122 33% - +$531 -8.0% 11.1h -
43 COIN 18 9 +5.49% $11,032 $11,638 128 27% - +$606 -23.0% 10.2h -
44 UNH 6 9 +4.84% $9,547 $10,009 127 30% - +$462 -17.4% 9.8h -
45 MSFT 11 6 +4.57% $9,871 $10,322 127 35% - +$451 -19.0% 11.5h -
46 HD 4 7 +4.46% $9,399 $9,818 127 25% - +$419 -11.0% 10.3h -
47 QQQ 22 9 +3.34% $11,025 $11,393 122 34% - +$368 -9.3% 11.6h -
48 MS 21 11 +2.92% $11,208 $11,535 132 39% - +$327 -12.1% 8.7h -
49 WMT 48 16🧊 +2.75% $13,902 $14,285 124 32% - +$382 -6.4% 14.1h -
50 META 5 9 +2.28% $10,006 $10,234 135 28% - +$228 -28.5% 9.8h -
51 NFLX 20 9 +2.07% $11,445 $11,682 132 35% - +$237 -13.6% 11.4h -
52 BRK-B 4 12 +1.55% $9,009 $9,149 126 24% - +$140 -16.1% 10.0h -
53 JPM 29 44 +1.39% $12,450 $12,623 127 31% - +$173 -9.6% 10.5h -
54 SPY 19 9 +1.26% $10,786 $10,922 123 32% - +$136 -6.4% 9.3h -
55 PLTR 42 9🧊 +1.07% $20,944 $21,168 131 30% - +$224 -23.6% 12.0h -
56 KO 16 14 +0.77% $10,504 $10,585 124 34% - +$81 -6.4% 13.1h -
57 COST 16 9 +0.40% $10,631 $10,673 131 33% - +$43 -8.3% 12.2h -
58 VTI 5 9 -0.55% $9,686 $9,633 122 30% - -$53 -11.1% 8.5h -
59 AMD 5 18 -0.63% $8,597 $8,543 132 32% - -$54 -38.6% 8.9h -
60 C 16 7 -1.11% $11,057 $10,934 125 35% - -$123 -16.6% 10.1h -
61 VZ 4 11 -1.13% $8,460 $8,365 125 27% - -$96 -22.5% 13.2h -
62 AAPL 4 32🔥 -1.33% $8,860 $8,742 131 29% - -$118 -16.9% 8.9h -
63 VOO 20 9 -1.77% $10,914 $10,721 123 29% - -$193 -4.8% 8.9h -
64 V 3 38🔥 -1.82% $9,337 $9,167 127 33% - -$170 -12.2% 10.0h -
65 SQQQ 16 28 -2.12% $11,522 $11,278 127 31% - -$244 -27.4% 9.4h -
66 XLE 4 11 -2.39% $10,131 $9,889 135 35% - -$242 -13.2% 11.6h -
67 PFE 4 18 -2.55% $8,542 $8,324 134 31% - -$218 -20.1% 11.0h -
68 AMZN 5 7 -3.37% $9,394 $9,077 128 33% - -$317 -24.3% 11.0h -
69 GLD 42 5🧊 -3.99% $13,779 $13,229 127 31% - -$550 -6.1% 12.6h -
70 COP 11 9 -5.03% $10,764 $10,223 135 27% - -$541 -13.6% 9.7h -
71 AVGO 7 9 -5.30% $10,665 $10,100 128 35% - -$565 -26.2% 12.5h -
72 XLF 15 30 -5.60% $11,162 $10,537 128 29% - -$625 -6.8% 10.7h -
73 MCD 4 9 -5.79% $8,882 $8,368 129 33% - -$514 -16.7% 11.1h -
74 TQQQ 4 7 -6.85% $8,878 $8,270 123 30% - -$608 -36.1% 10.2h -
75 CMCSA 5 32🔥 -7.02% $10,447 $9,713 131 33% - -$733 -8.3% 10.3h -
76 TLT 4 5 -7.04% $9,747 $9,061 130 31% - -$686 -7.1% 12.0h -
77 TMO 5 34🔥 -7.36% $9,832 $9,108 134 31% - -$724 -14.5% 9.4h -
78 ISRG 5 9 -8.03% $10,890 $10,015 125 31% - -$874 -10.1% 11.6h -
79 UVXY 27 25 -8.05% $16,257 $14,948 141 25% - -$1,309 -23.5% 7.4h -
80 TSLA 3 7 -8.49% $7,602 $6,956 130 31% - -$645 -26.6% 10.7h -
81 CRWD 28 7🧊 -8.93% $15,769 $14,361 123 33% - -$1,408 -20.9% 11.7h -
82 DIS 4 9 -10.24% $10,158 $9,118 134 29% - -$1,040 -15.9% 8.6h -
83 CRM 22 6 -11.06% $13,550 $12,051 134 28% - -$1,499 -15.0% 9.6h -
84 PG 16 9 -12.04% $11,937 $10,499 130 25% - -$1,437 -4.6% 11.1h -
85 NVDA 8 6 -12.51% $11,589 $10,139 130 28% - -$1,450 -30.4% 9.6h -
86 BLK 15 10 -12.60% $12,125 $10,597 134 31% - -$1,528 -8.6% 12.4h -
87 SMCI 21 9 -12.61% $15,104 $13,199 130 24% - -$1,905 -43.0% 10.0h -
88 MDT 4 7 -13.72% $9,744 $8,407 129 29% - -$1,337 -12.9% 12.0h -
89 MARA 33 22 -14.61% $23,083 $19,710 134 28% - -$3,372 -35.1% 9.9h -
90 PYPL 4 9 -14.72% $10,593 $9,033 125 24% - -$1,559 -14.2% 12.0h -
91 NET 5 9 -15.50% $9,502 $8,030 127 29% - -$1,473 -27.1% 9.4h -
92 IBM 5 9 -16.33% $9,527 $7,972 128 33% - -$1,556 -12.8% 9.8h -
93 GILD 3 9 -19.77% $9,775 $7,842 133 22% - -$1,933 -19.1% 8.9h -
94 NIO 2 9 -20.40% $5,788 $4,608 130 28% - -$1,181 -42.7% 8.8h -
95 RBLX 4 30🔥 -22.13% $11,476 $8,936 135 30% - -$2,540 -23.0% 10.9h -
96 REGN 2 9 -23.54% $6,894 $5,271 134 25% - -$1,623 -33.9% 8.9h -
97 ADBE 4 7 -24.03% $9,114 $6,924 132 34% - -$2,190 -20.5% 12.0h -
98 ACN 4 6 -24.28% $10,093 $7,643 130 28% - -$2,451 -7.8% 11.9h -
99 OXY 4 7 -24.29% $10,225 $7,741 131 29% - -$2,484 -14.1% 11.1h -
100 SPXU 2 6 -28.93% $10,006 $7,111 86 24% - -$2,895 -29.7% 20.5h -
101 VXX 4 9 -34.90% $11,254 $7,326 140 22% - -$3,928 -42.2% 8.2h -
102 AMC 2 9 -37.23% $4,797 $3,011 141 21% - -$1,786 -67.5% 9.0h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.