Back to Compendium
Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jun 24, 2026 → Sep 24, 2026 (92d)

📊 Last 3 Months Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the last 3 months across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,215
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,188 (+$27)
+0.24%
Last 3 Months ROI
35.7%
Win Rate
3,012
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-0.5%
1 Month
+0.2%
3 Months
+2.1%
6 Months
+1.3%
YTD
+2.3%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 3 Months)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 3 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 3 Months: Jun 24, 2026 → Sep 24, 2026 (92 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 3M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 RBLX 22 81🔥 +39.45% $9,034 $12,599 29 45% - +$3,564 -23.0% 10.9h ✓ -
2 TSLA 4 66🔥 +29.05% $6,942 $8,958 26 38% - +$2,017 -26.6% 10.7h ✓ -
3 ARKK 37 36 +24.79% $12,046 $15,033 31 45% - +$2,986 -13.9% 11.5h ✓ -
4 SMCI 28 70🔥 +24.22% $13,987 $17,375 33 36% - +$3,388 -43.0% 10.0h ✓ -
5 AMD 10 75🔥 +19.54% $8,593 $10,272 30 47% - +$1,679 -38.6% 8.9h ✓ -
6 HOOD 40 9🧊 +17.31% $15,972 $18,737 29 48% - +$2,765 -21.5% 10.9h ✓ -
7 META 15 32 +16.03% $9,431 $10,943 28 39% - +$1,512 -28.5% 9.8h ✓ -
8 XOM 36 42 +13.13% $11,548 $13,065 29 31% - +$1,516 -7.7% 11.2h ✓ -
9 CRWD 30 61🔥 +12.43% $14,153 $15,912 26 38% - +$1,759 -20.9% 11.7h ✓ -
10 RIOT 27 41 +11.99% $13,776 $15,428 29 45% - +$1,652 -34.2% 9.1h ✓ -
11 ADBE 4 9 +11.64% $6,794 $7,585 31 39% - +$791 -20.5% 12.0h ✓ -
12 NFLX 26 6 +11.17% $11,469 $12,750 23 61% - +$1,281 -13.6% 11.4h ✓ -
13 INTC 20 67🔥 +10.16% $11,286 $12,433 32 38% - +$1,147 -21.5% 7.8h ✓ -
14 SLB 17 32 +8.99% $10,190 $11,106 27 48% - +$916 -17.0% 9.5h ✓ -
15 SCHW 62 9🧊 +8.92% $15,224 $16,582 31 45% - +$1,358 -6.9% 10.9h ✓ -
16 V 4 33🔥 +8.39% $9,107 $9,871 27 56% - +$764 -12.2% 10.0h ✓ -
17 PANW 56 20🧊 +8.08% $17,003 $18,377 28 50% - +$1,374 -10.2% 10.2h ✓ -
18 VTI 12 37🔥 +7.50% $9,548 $10,264 28 50% - +$716 -11.1% 8.5h ✓ -
19 MRK 29 9 +7.44% $12,553 $13,487 31 45% - +$934 -15.0% 11.4h ✓ -
20 BIIB 8 47🔥 +7.27% $9,438 $10,124 34 32% - +$686 -21.8% 9.1h ✓ -
21 AMGN 52 24🧊 +6.83% $13,685 $14,620 31 48% - +$935 -5.9% 10.1h ✓ -
22 GME 35 45 +6.77% $16,606 $17,730 30 47% - +$1,124 -22.2% 8.2h ✓ -
23 USO 35 59🔥 +6.56% $13,692 $14,590 30 43% - +$898 -11.7% 10.8h ✓ -
24 MRNA 4 21 +5.31% $6,372 $6,711 31 32% - +$338 -67.6% 11.1h ✓ -
25 REGN 2 7 +4.90% $5,267 $5,525 31 45% - +$258 -33.9% 8.9h ✓ -
26 LLY 33 9🧊 +4.45% $14,165 $14,795 34 35% - +$630 -13.5% 10.7h ✓ -
27 VZ 4 7 +4.11% $8,380 $8,724 28 50% - +$344 -22.5% 13.2h ✓ -
28 GS 49 32 +4.08% $15,111 $15,728 31 32% - +$617 -8.5% 10.1h ✓ -
29 MA 24 9 +3.73% $11,236 $11,655 33 48% - +$419 -9.3% 9.0h ✓ -
30 GILD 3 9 +3.58% $7,809 $8,088 27 41% - +$280 -19.1% 8.9h ✓ -
31 WMT 52 7🧊 +3.35% $14,359 $14,840 27 30% - +$481 -6.4% 14.1h ✓ -
32 TMO 5 9 +3.33% $9,130 $9,434 28 36% - +$304 -14.5% 9.4h ✓ -
33 PEP 31 9🧊 +3.19% $11,605 $11,976 29 34% - +$370 -6.0% 11.3h ✓ -
34 COP 15 10 +3.12% $10,289 $10,610 31 32% - +$321 -13.6% 9.7h ✓ -
35 GLD 43 9🧊 +2.90% $13,109 $13,489 27 44% - +$380 -6.1% 12.6h ✓ -
36 XLF 19 19 +2.84% $10,564 $10,864 29 34% - +$300 -6.8% 10.7h ✓ -
37 C 17 18 +2.81% $10,811 $11,115 29 48% - +$304 -16.6% 10.1h ✓ -
38 WFC 33 18 +2.80% $13,276 $13,648 29 41% - +$372 -10.6% 11.2h ✓ -
39 BMY 4 9 +2.67% $9,340 $9,590 32 41% - +$249 -14.5% 9.3h ✓ -
40 PFE 4 5 +2.49% $8,307 $8,514 28 29% - +$207 -20.1% 11.0h ✓ -
41 MCD 4 7 +2.41% $8,233 $8,432 29 34% - +$198 -16.7% 11.1h ✓ -
42 BAC 19 5 +2.26% $11,139 $11,391 26 35% - +$252 -19.3% 10.2h ✓ -
43 BRK-B 4 9 +2.22% $9,184 $9,388 33 42% - +$204 -16.1% 10.0h ✓ -
44 JPM 30 9🧊 +2.04% $12,456 $12,711 26 31% - +$254 -9.6% 10.5h ✓ -
45 PG 19 17 +1.98% $10,518 $10,726 30 43% - +$208 -4.6% 11.1h ✓ -
46 AMZN 5 6 +1.91% $8,776 $8,944 27 37% - +$168 -24.3% 11.0h ✓ -
47 ABBV 11 14 +1.84% $10,202 $10,390 35 31% - +$188 -20.2% 10.6h ✓ -
48 NET 5 45🔥 +1.39% $8,041 $8,153 33 30% - +$112 -27.1% 9.4h ✓ -
49 CMCSA 11 7 +1.35% $9,813 $9,946 27 44% - +$132 -8.3% 10.3h ✓ -
50 PM 55 7🧊 +0.45% $14,322 $14,386 32 47% - +$64 -4.1% 12.3h ✓ -
51 AXP 20 5 +0.36% $11,578 $11,620 26 38% - +$42 -17.9% 10.5h ✓ -
52 SLV 24 9 +0.03% $12,128 $12,131 31 26% - +$4 -14.1% 11.3h ✓ -
53 VOO 20 13 +0.00% $10,741 $10,741 30 33% - - -4.8% 8.9h ✓ -
54 JNJ 8 9 -0.07% $10,248 $10,241 32 25% - -$7 -10.9% 11.3h ✓ -
55 KO 16 9 -0.32% $10,628 $10,594 27 30% - -$34 -6.4% 13.1h ✓ -
56 IBM 5 25 -0.42% $8,088 $8,054 29 31% - -$34 -12.8% 9.8h ✓ -
57 XLK 37 43 -0.48% $14,652 $14,582 29 31% - -$70 -13.1% 10.5h ✓ -
58 VRTX 30 9🧊 -0.55% $12,915 $12,844 32 28% - -$71 -9.6% 11.3h ✓ -
59 SPY 19 11 -0.58% $10,837 $10,774 29 41% - -$63 -6.4% 9.3h ✓ -
60 MSFT 11 14 -0.68% $10,421 $10,350 26 31% - -$71 -19.0% 11.5h ✓ -
61 AAPL 4 29🔥 -0.69% $8,627 $8,568 25 48% - -$60 -16.9% 8.9h ✓ -
62 OXY 5 9 -1.20% $7,903 $7,808 30 23% - -$95 -14.1% 11.1h ✓ -
63 TLT 4 16 -1.28% $9,042 $8,926 29 24% - -$116 -7.1% 12.0h ✓ -
64 ACN 5 7 -1.43% $8,008 $7,894 27 44% - -$115 -7.8% 11.9h ✓ -
65 PYPL 4 6 -1.43% $9,073 $8,943 28 29% - -$130 -14.2% 12.0h ✓ -
66 SPXU 3 37🔥 -1.92% $7,501 $7,357 27 37% - -$144 -29.7% 20.5h ✓ -
67 DIA 5 9 -1.99% $10,059 $9,859 29 31% - -$200 -8.0% 11.1h ✓ -
68 CVX 27 35 -2.00% $12,724 $12,469 27 37% - -$254 -10.7% 11.2h ✓ -
69 DIS 4 7 -2.25% $9,519 $9,305 26 38% - -$214 -15.9% 8.6h ✓ -
70 BLK 12 10 -2.56% $10,631 $10,359 38 21% - -$272 -8.6% 12.4h ✓ -
71 PLTR 41 9🧊 -2.71% $20,991 $20,422 30 20% - -$569 -23.6% 12.0h ✓ -
72 SQQQ 17 7 -3.24% $11,841 $11,457 28 29% - -$384 -27.4% 9.4h ✓ -
73 GOOGL 21 9 -4.31% $12,739 $12,190 29 38% - -$549 -22.4% 10.5h ✓ -
74 QQQ 19 30 -4.35% $11,425 $10,928 28 25% - -$497 -9.3% 11.6h ✓ -
75 XLE 4 19 -4.76% $9,879 $9,408 31 35% - -$470 -13.2% 11.6h ✓ -
76 COST 8 11 -5.75% $10,764 $10,146 34 29% - -$619 -8.3% 12.2h ✓ -
77 IWM 23 3 -5.75% $12,060 $11,367 28 25% - -$693 -8.0% 9.6h ✓ -
78 NVDA 8 6 -5.84% $10,572 $9,955 29 31% - -$617 -30.4% 9.6h ✓ -
79 RIVN 36 9🧊 -6.49% $22,353 $20,902 31 39% - -$1,451 -33.5% 10.9h ✓ -
80 MDT 4 6 -6.70% $8,376 $7,815 28 32% - -$561 -12.9% 12.0h ✓ -
81 SOXL 4 9 -6.75% $8,902 $8,301 32 34% - -$601 -51.2% 11.0h ✓ -
82 HD 4 6 -6.79% $9,847 $9,179 26 31% - -$669 -11.0% 10.3h ✓ -
83 LCID 26 9 -8.55% $15,827 $14,474 31 32% - -$1,353 -23.9% 10.4h ✓ -
84 CRM 17 7 -9.21% $12,335 $11,199 28 43% - -$1,136 -15.0% 9.6h ✓ -
85 COIN 13 45🔥 -9.40% $11,707 $10,606 30 27% - -$1,100 -23.0% 10.2h ✓ -
86 AVGO 4 48🔥 -11.32% $10,388 $9,212 33 33% - -$1,176 -26.2% 12.5h ✓ -
87 ISRG 5 9 -11.44% $10,021 $8,875 32 31% - -$1,146 -10.1% 11.6h ✓ -
88 CSCO 42 9🧊 -11.64% $15,215 $13,444 29 41% - -$1,771 -5.8% 11.6h ✓ -
89 UVXY 22 7 -11.99% $15,376 $13,532 29 38% - -$1,844 -23.5% 7.4h ✓ -
90 VXX 3 9 -12.08% $7,531 $6,622 30 30% - -$910 -42.2% 8.2h ✓ -
91 UNH 5 9 -12.48% $9,798 $8,576 31 23% - -$1,223 -17.4% 9.8h ✓ -
92 DKNG 15 6 -13.13% $12,587 $10,935 27 19% - -$1,653 -25.0% 11.5h ✓ -
93 SOFI 38 9🧊 -13.54% $22,033 $19,050 29 28% - -$2,983 -22.8% 11.5h ✓ -
94 AMC 2 9 -13.57% $3,157 $2,729 33 27% - -$428 -67.5% 9.0h ✓ -
95 TQQQ 4 25🔥 -13.63% $8,324 $7,190 28 29% - -$1,135 -36.1% 10.2h ✓ -
96 SNOW 16 9 -14.05% $13,193 $11,339 29 28% - -$1,854 -21.1% 10.3h ✓ -
97 NIO 2 7 -14.21% $4,562 $3,913 30 20% - -$648 -42.7% 8.8h ✓ -
98 MS 5 5 -14.88% $11,558 $9,838 31 29% - -$1,720 -12.1% 8.7h ✓ -
99 ORCL 5 9 -15.40% $9,890 $8,367 33 27% - -$1,523 -31.9% 11.8h ✓ -
100 MARA 27 25 -23.22% $21,351 $16,394 32 22% - -$4,958 -35.1% 9.9h ✓ -
101 MU 3 9 -25.25% $11,397 $8,520 28 32% - -$2,878 -48.4% 10.8h ✓ -
102 ARM 3 51🔥 -28.73% $5,964 $4,250 33 21% - -$1,713 -53.7% 10.4h ✓ -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.