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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Mar 24, 2026 → Sep 24, 2026 (184d)

📊 Last 6 Months Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the last 6 months across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,227
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,001 (+$226)
+2.06%
Last 6 Months ROI
35.4%
Win Rate
5,859
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-0.5%
1 Month
+0.2%
3 Months
+2.1%
6 Months
+1.3%
YTD
+2.3%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last 6 Months)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last 6 Months)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last 6 Months)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last 6 Months: Mar 24, 2026 → Sep 24, 2026 (184 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 6M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SMCI 28 70🔥 +51.59% $11,462 $17,375 61 39% - +$5,913 -43.0% 10.0h ✓ -
2 INTC 20 67🔥 +47.97% $8,402 $12,433 60 37% - +$4,031 -21.5% 7.8h ✓ -
3 MRNA 4 21 +46.75% $4,573 $6,711 60 40% - +$2,138 -67.6% 11.1h ✓ -
4 ARKK 37 36 +45.79% $10,311 $15,033 58 45% - +$4,721 -13.9% 11.5h ✓ -
5 PANW 56 20🧊 +41.29% $13,007 $18,377 53 51% - +$5,370 -10.2% 10.2h ✓ -
6 RBLX 22 81🔥 +34.07% $9,397 $12,599 59 42% - +$3,202 -23.0% 10.9h ✓ -
7 AMD 10 75🔥 +29.13% $7,955 $10,272 58 45% - +$2,317 -38.6% 8.9h ✓ -
8 XLK 37 43 +24.73% $11,691 $14,582 51 43% - +$2,891 -13.1% 10.5h ✓ -
9 GME 35 45 +24.63% $14,226 $17,730 62 44% - +$3,504 -22.2% 8.2h ✓ -
10 SNOW 16 9 +23.72% $9,165 $11,339 54 31% - +$2,174 -21.1% 10.3h ✓ -
11 HOOD 40 9🧊 +21.53% $15,417 $18,737 57 40% - +$3,319 -21.5% 10.9h ✓ -
12 MRK 29 9 +21.35% $11,114 $13,487 59 39% - +$2,373 -15.0% 11.4h ✓ -
13 META 15 32 +17.01% $9,352 $10,943 60 33% - +$1,591 -28.5% 9.8h ✓ -
14 GS 49 32 +15.57% $13,609 $15,728 59 39% - +$2,119 -8.5% 10.1h ✓ -
15 MA 24 9 +13.68% $10,253 $11,655 61 43% - +$1,403 -9.3% 9.0h ✓ -
16 LLY 33 9🧊 +13.46% $13,040 $14,795 60 37% - +$1,755 -13.5% 10.7h ✓ -
17 V 4 33🔥 +13.23% $8,718 $9,871 53 49% - +$1,153 -12.2% 10.0h ✓ -
18 BMY 4 9 +12.63% $8,514 $9,590 60 45% - +$1,075 -14.5% 9.3h ✓ -
19 AMGN 52 24🧊 +12.56% $12,988 $14,620 63 38% - +$1,631 -5.9% 10.1h ✓ -
20 TSLA 4 66🔥 +11.30% $8,049 $8,958 54 30% - +$909 -26.6% 10.7h ✓ -
21 BAC 19 5 +11.28% $10,237 $11,391 49 43% - +$1,155 -19.3% 10.2h ✓ -
22 SCHW 62 9🧊 +10.51% $15,005 $16,582 58 41% - +$1,577 -6.9% 10.9h ✓ -
23 MSFT 11 14 +10.26% $9,387 $10,350 52 40% - +$963 -19.0% 11.5h ✓ -
24 SQQQ 17 7 +9.65% $10,449 $11,457 57 35% - +$1,008 -27.4% 9.4h ✓ -
25 XOM 36 42 +9.54% $11,927 $13,065 57 33% - +$1,138 -7.7% 11.2h ✓ -
26 WMT 52 7🧊 +9.43% $13,561 $14,840 53 36% - +$1,279 -6.4% 14.1h ✓ -
27 GOOGL 21 9 +7.86% $11,302 $12,190 55 40% - +$888 -22.4% 10.5h ✓ -
28 JNJ 8 9 +7.41% $9,534 $10,241 59 31% - +$706 -10.9% 11.3h ✓ -
29 VTI 12 37🔥 +7.35% $9,561 $10,264 55 40% - +$703 -11.1% 8.5h ✓ -
30 VZ 4 7 +7.27% $8,133 $8,724 54 44% - +$591 -22.5% 13.2h ✓ -
31 NFLX 26 6 +7.02% $11,914 $12,750 54 43% - +$836 -13.6% 11.4h ✓ -
32 SLB 17 32 +6.64% $10,415 $11,106 56 43% - +$692 -17.0% 9.5h ✓ -
33 BIIB 8 47🔥 +6.50% $9,506 $10,124 63 30% - +$618 -21.8% 9.1h ✓ -
34 JPM 30 9🧊 +6.09% $11,981 $12,711 54 33% - +$730 -9.6% 10.5h ✓ -
35 AXP 20 5 +5.97% $10,965 $11,620 57 32% - +$655 -17.9% 10.5h ✓ -
36 ABBV 11 14 +5.62% $9,837 $10,390 67 34% - +$553 -20.2% 10.6h ✓ -
37 WFC 33 18 +5.15% $12,979 $13,648 55 36% - +$668 -10.6% 11.2h ✓ -
38 IWM 23 3 +5.08% $10,817 $11,367 52 35% - +$550 -8.0% 9.6h ✓ -
39 XLF 19 19 +5.02% $10,344 $10,864 55 35% - +$519 -6.8% 10.7h ✓ -
40 PFE 4 5 +4.80% $8,124 $8,514 58 38% - +$390 -20.1% 11.0h ✓ -
41 USO 35 59🔥 +4.11% $14,014 $14,590 59 41% - +$576 -11.7% 10.8h ✓ -
42 PM 55 7🧊 +3.32% $13,924 $14,386 59 42% - +$462 -4.1% 12.3h ✓ -
43 BRK-B 4 9 +2.77% $9,135 $9,388 61 33% - +$253 -16.1% 10.0h ✓ -
44 DIS 4 7 +2.22% $9,103 $9,305 56 36% - +$202 -15.9% 8.6h ✓ -
45 CRWD 30 61🔥 +2.02% $15,597 $15,912 53 32% - +$315 -20.9% 11.7h ✓ -
46 MCD 4 7 +1.84% $8,279 $8,432 53 38% - +$152 -16.7% 11.1h ✓ -
47 KO 16 9 +1.61% $10,426 $10,594 57 33% - +$168 -6.4% 13.1h ✓ -
48 GLD 43 9🧊 +1.05% $13,349 $13,489 54 39% - +$140 -6.1% 12.6h ✓ -
49 RIOT 27 41 +0.95% $15,282 $15,428 57 35% - +$145 -34.2% 9.1h ✓ -
50 CMCSA 11 7 +0.46% $9,900 $9,946 52 40% - +$46 -8.3% 10.3h ✓ -
51 AAPL 4 29🔥 +0.31% $8,541 $8,568 55 40% - +$26 -16.9% 8.9h ✓ -
52 DIA 5 9 +0.15% $9,844 $9,859 54 35% - +$15 -8.0% 11.1h ✓ -
53 PLTR 41 9🧊 -0.23% $20,469 $20,422 57 21% - -$47 -23.6% 12.0h ✓ -
54 CRM 17 7 -0.33% $11,236 $11,199 56 43% - -$37 -15.0% 9.6h ✓ -
55 TMO 5 9 -0.45% $9,477 $9,434 57 32% - -$43 -14.5% 9.4h ✓ -
56 RIVN 36 9🧊 -0.97% $21,107 $20,902 57 40% - -$205 -33.5% 10.9h ✓ -
57 SPY 19 11 -1.05% $10,888 $10,774 58 38% - -$114 -6.4% 9.3h ✓ -
58 COP 15 10 -1.08% $10,725 $10,610 58 33% - -$116 -13.6% 9.7h ✓ -
59 VOO 20 13 -1.18% $10,869 $10,741 58 34% - -$128 -4.8% 8.9h ✓ -
60 QQQ 19 30 -1.30% $11,072 $10,928 55 31% - -$144 -9.3% 11.6h ✓ -
61 CSCO 42 9🧊 -2.44% $13,780 $13,444 56 43% - -$336 -5.8% 11.6h ✓ -
62 VRTX 30 9🧊 -3.09% $13,253 $12,844 60 30% - -$410 -9.6% 11.3h ✓ -
63 CVX 27 35 -3.57% $12,931 $12,469 56 34% - -$462 -10.7% 11.2h ✓ -
64 NVDA 8 6 -4.06% $10,376 $9,955 54 33% - -$421 -30.4% 9.6h ✓ -
65 PEP 31 9🧊 -4.34% $12,519 $11,976 60 32% - -$543 -6.0% 11.3h ✓ -
66 GILD 3 9 -4.63% $8,481 $8,088 56 29% - -$393 -19.1% 8.9h ✓ -
67 TLT 4 16 -4.70% $9,367 $8,926 57 23% - -$440 -7.1% 12.0h ✓ -
68 AMZN 5 6 -4.93% $9,407 $8,944 54 39% - -$464 -24.3% 11.0h ✓ -
69 IBM 5 25 -4.98% $8,476 $8,054 56 39% - -$422 -12.8% 9.8h ✓ -
70 C 17 18 -5.19% $11,723 $11,115 58 38% - -$608 -16.6% 10.1h ✓ -
71 DKNG 15 6 -5.96% $11,628 $10,935 57 28% - -$693 -25.0% 11.5h ✓ -
72 BLK 12 10 -6.82% $11,118 $10,359 71 25% - -$758 -8.6% 12.4h ✓ -
73 PG 19 17 -7.07% $11,542 $10,726 58 29% - -$816 -4.6% 11.1h ✓ -
74 SOXL 4 9 -7.14% $8,939 $8,301 59 44% - -$638 -51.2% 11.0h ✓ -
75 ADBE 4 9 -8.08% $8,252 $7,585 60 30% - -$667 -20.5% 12.0h ✓ -
76 HD 4 6 -8.87% $10,072 $9,179 54 33% - -$893 -11.0% 10.3h ✓ -
77 AVGO 4 48🔥 -9.11% $10,136 $9,212 60 32% - -$923 -26.2% 12.5h ✓ -
78 XLE 4 19 -9.41% $10,386 $9,408 61 36% - -$977 -13.2% 11.6h ✓ -
79 NET 5 45🔥 -10.25% $9,084 $8,153 62 29% - -$931 -27.1% 9.4h ✓ -
80 PYPL 4 6 -10.30% $9,970 $8,943 54 26% - -$1,027 -14.2% 12.0h ✓ -
81 UVXY 22 7 -10.35% $15,095 $13,532 61 36% - -$1,562 -23.5% 7.4h ✓ -
82 ORCL 5 9 -10.53% $9,352 $8,367 56 32% - -$985 -31.9% 11.8h ✓ -
83 LCID 26 9 -10.67% $16,203 $14,474 56 29% - -$1,729 -23.9% 10.4h ✓ -
84 MS 5 5 -10.86% $11,037 $9,838 59 41% - -$1,199 -12.1% 8.7h ✓ -
85 COST 8 11 -11.01% $11,401 $10,146 61 34% - -$1,255 -8.3% 12.2h ✓ -
86 UNH 5 9 -11.73% $9,715 $8,576 57 30% - -$1,140 -17.4% 9.8h ✓ -
87 SPXU 3 37🔥 -12.00% $8,360 $7,357 54 33% - -$1,003 -29.7% 20.5h ✓ -
88 AMC 2 9 -12.43% $3,116 $2,729 66 33% - -$387 -67.5% 9.0h ✓ -
89 TQQQ 4 25🔥 -12.53% $8,220 $7,190 55 29% - -$1,030 -36.1% 10.2h ✓ -
90 MARA 27 25 -13.66% $18,987 $16,394 62 31% - -$2,594 -35.1% 9.9h ✓ -
91 REGN 2 7 -14.10% $6,432 $5,525 60 33% - -$907 -33.9% 8.9h ✓ -
92 ISRG 5 9 -14.74% $10,409 $8,875 57 30% - -$1,534 -10.1% 11.6h ✓ -
93 MDT 4 6 -15.48% $9,246 $7,815 55 29% - -$1,431 -12.9% 12.0h ✓ -
94 ACN 5 7 -16.32% $9,433 $7,894 54 31% - -$1,539 -7.8% 11.9h ✓ -
95 SLV 24 9 -16.52% $14,532 $12,131 55 27% - -$2,401 -14.1% 11.3h ✓ -
96 OXY 5 9 -17.06% $9,414 $7,808 57 30% - -$1,606 -14.1% 11.1h ✓ -
97 MU 3 9 -18.47% $10,450 $8,520 60 35% - -$1,930 -48.4% 10.8h ✓ -
98 ARM 3 51🔥 -19.34% $5,269 $4,250 64 33% - -$1,019 -53.7% 10.4h ✓ -
99 VXX 3 9 -21.45% $8,430 $6,622 61 26% - -$1,808 -42.2% 8.2h ✓ -
100 SOFI 38 9🧊 -23.93% $25,042 $19,050 59 31% - -$5,993 -22.8% 11.5h ✓ -
101 COIN 13 45🔥 -26.61% $14,452 $10,606 60 28% - -$3,846 -23.0% 10.2h ✓ -
102 NIO 2 7 -29.95% $5,587 $3,913 59 24% - -$1,673 -42.7% 8.8h ✓ -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.