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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

May 7, 2024 May 7, 2026 (730d)

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$11,235
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$1,235)
+12.35%
2-Year ROI
30.7%
Win Rate
27,817
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+2.2%
1 Month
+0.9%
3 Months
+2.1%
6 Months
+1.5%
YTD
+6.4%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: May 7, 2024 May 7, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SOFI 51 40 +147.06% $10,000 $24,706 264 36% - +$14,706 -22.8% 11.5h -
2 PLTR 45 58 +119.74% $10,000 $21,974 271 32% - +$11,974 -23.6% 12.0h -
3 RIVN 38 11🧊 +112.68% $10,000 $21,268 279 34% - +$11,268 -33.5% 10.9h -
4 MARA 33 8🧊 +98.71% $10,000 $19,871 284 30% - +$9,871 -35.1% 9.9h -
5 LCID 38 60🔥 +90.99% $10,000 $19,099 279 25% - +$9,099 -23.9% 10.4h -
6 HOOD 33 38 +64.20% $10,000 $16,420 274 32% - +$6,420 -21.5% 10.9h -
7 RIOT 30 51🔥 +62.74% $10,000 $16,274 270 30% - +$6,274 -34.2% 9.1h -
8 GME 29 45 +51.79% $10,000 $15,179 287 29% - +$5,179 -22.2% 8.2h -
9 CSCO 59 58 +51.46% $10,000 $15,146 270 36% - +$5,146 -5.8% 11.6h -
10 SCHW 48 7🧊 +44.86% $10,000 $14,486 265 38% - +$4,486 -6.9% 10.9h -
11 GS 41 55 +44.82% $10,000 $14,482 273 34% - +$4,482 -8.5% 10.1h -
12 USO 34 11🧊 +44.16% $10,000 $14,416 266 36% - +$4,416 -11.7% 10.8h -
13 UVXY 25 9 +43.73% $10,000 $14,373 292 25% - +$4,373 -23.5% 7.4h -
14 PANW 38 34 +42.40% $10,000 $14,240 275 32% - +$4,240 -10.2% 10.2h -
15 CRWD 28 9 +42.18% $10,000 $14,218 263 34% - +$4,218 -20.9% 11.7h -
16 GLD 51 9🧊 +42.12% $10,000 $14,212 261 36% - +$4,212 -6.1% 12.6h -
17 PM 54 15🧊 +40.99% $10,000 $14,099 258 31% - +$4,099 -4.1% 12.3h -
18 WMT 46 31 +39.88% $10,000 $13,988 271 34% - +$3,988 -6.4% 14.1h -
19 LLY 30 41 +34.14% $10,000 $13,414 280 33% - +$3,414 -13.5% 10.7h -
20 VRTX 32 12 +32.30% $10,000 $13,230 278 34% - +$3,230 -9.6% 11.3h -
21 CVX 32 42 +32.05% $10,000 $13,205 276 31% - +$3,205 -10.7% 11.2h -
22 SLV 28 9 +31.58% $10,000 $13,158 267 32% - +$3,158 -14.1% 11.3h -
23 AMGN 40 22 +30.02% $10,000 $13,002 283 34% - +$3,002 -5.9% 10.1h -
24 XLK 29 46 +28.23% $10,000 $12,823 267 35% - +$2,823 -13.1% 10.5h -
25 COIN 22 9 +26.47% $10,000 $12,647 277 30% - +$2,647 -23.0% 10.2h -
26 CRM 25 62🔥 +25.70% $10,000 $12,570 286 27% - +$2,570 -15.0% 9.6h -
27 WFC 27 6🧊 +25.48% $10,000 $12,548 272 33% - +$2,548 -10.6% 11.2h -
28 DKNG 22 16 +25.39% $10,000 $12,539 281 34% - +$2,539 -25.0% 11.5h -
29 SMCI 19 67🔥 +25.27% $10,000 $12,527 283 25% - +$2,527 -43.0% 10.0h -
30 PEP 35 9🧊 +23.89% $10,000 $12,389 269 34% - +$2,389 -6.0% 11.3h -
31 GOOGL 21 66🔥 +23.33% $10,000 $12,333 273 33% - +$2,333 -22.4% 10.5h -
32 XOM 30 36 +21.39% $10,000 $12,139 274 33% - +$2,139 -7.7% 11.2h -
33 SOXL 18 62🔥 +21.35% $10,000 $12,135 261 31% - +$2,135 -51.2% 11.0h -
34 JPM 25 7 +19.31% $10,000 $11,931 279 28% - +$1,931 -9.6% 10.5h -
35 NFLX 21 9 +17.27% $10,000 $11,728 280 33% - +$1,728 -13.6% 11.4h -
36 COST 25 11 +16.73% $10,000 $11,673 278 29% - +$1,673 -8.3% 12.2h -
37 MS 21 19 +15.12% $10,000 $11,512 276 34% - +$1,512 -12.1% 8.7h -
38 IWM 23 39 +14.25% $10,000 $11,425 278 29% - +$1,425 -8.0% 9.6h -
39 QQQ 22 40 +13.93% $10,000 $11,393 259 34% - +$1,393 -9.3% 11.6h -
40 INTC 17 63🔥 +13.74% $10,000 $11,374 283 28% - +$1,374 -21.5% 7.8h -
41 ARKK 19 55🔥 +12.90% $10,000 $11,290 269 30% - +$1,290 -13.9% 11.5h -
42 MRK 18 9 +12.66% $10,000 $11,266 271 33% - +$1,266 -15.0% 11.4h -
43 AVGO 16 51🔥 +11.41% $10,000 $11,141 270 33% - +$1,141 -26.2% 12.5h -
44 BAC 18 53🔥 +11.37% $10,000 $11,137 273 34% - +$1,137 -19.3% 10.2h -
45 BLK 20 11 +11.13% $10,000 $11,113 267 36% - +$1,113 -8.6% 12.4h -
46 SQQQ 15 9 +11.07% $10,000 $11,107 274 28% - +$1,107 -27.4% 9.4h -
47 AXP 18 14 +10.75% $10,000 $11,075 279 32% - +$1,075 -17.9% 10.5h -
48 MU 13 50🔥 +8.99% $10,000 $10,899 252 29% - +$899 -48.4% 10.8h -
49 C 16 9 +8.45% $10,000 $10,845 275 32% - +$845 -16.6% 10.1h -
50 KO 18 29 +7.27% $10,000 $10,727 262 31% - +$727 -6.4% 13.1h -
51 VOO 20 9 +7.21% $10,000 $10,721 265 32% - +$721 -4.8% 8.9h -
52 SPY 18 9 +7.13% $10,000 $10,713 264 31% - +$713 -6.4% 9.3h -
53 NVDA 14 23 +6.95% $10,000 $10,695 275 29% - +$695 -30.4% 9.6h -
54 PG 18 6 +6.72% $10,000 $10,672 269 26% - +$672 -4.6% 11.1h -
55 COP 16 5 +6.62% $10,000 $10,662 278 29% - +$662 -13.6% 9.7h -
56 ISRG 15 8 +6.16% $10,000 $10,616 271 30% - +$616 -10.1% 11.6h -
57 MA 15 26 +5.75% $10,000 $10,575 278 27% - +$575 -9.3% 9.0h -
58 SLB 12 7 +3.92% $10,000 $10,392 278 32% - +$392 -17.0% 9.5h -
59 MSFT 10 63🔥 +2.49% $10,000 $10,249 272 32% - +$249 -19.0% 11.5h -
60 XLF 10 9 +2.13% $10,000 $10,213 278 32% - +$213 -6.8% 10.7h -
61 AMZN 10 45🔥 +2.06% $10,000 $10,206 275 35% - +$206 -24.3% 11.0h -
62 UNH 9 48🔥 +1.24% $10,000 $10,124 273 32% - +$124 -17.4% 9.8h -
63 ABBV 6 21 +0.69% $10,000 $10,069 276 32% - +$69 -20.2% 10.6h -
64 DIA 5 15 -0.56% $10,000 $9,944 267 29% - -$56 -8.0% 11.1h -
65 CMCSA 5 9 -0.90% $10,000 $9,910 281 32% - -$90 -8.3% 10.3h -
66 HD 4 9 -1.12% $10,000 $9,888 272 28% - -$112 -11.0% 10.3h -
67 ORCL 5 15 -1.91% $10,000 $9,809 262 35% - -$191 -31.9% 11.8h -
68 META 5 29🔥 -1.98% $10,000 $9,802 281 31% - -$198 -28.5% 9.8h -
69 JNJ 5 18 -2.31% $10,000 $9,769 266 29% - -$231 -10.9% 11.3h -
70 XLE 4 9 -2.32% $10,000 $9,768 281 30% - -$232 -13.2% 11.6h -
71 DIS 4 50🔥 -3.64% $10,000 $9,636 280 29% - -$364 -15.9% 8.6h -
72 VTI 5 21 -4.22% $10,000 $9,578 267 30% - -$422 -11.1% 8.5h -
73 PYPL 5 7 -4.94% $10,000 $9,506 261 30% - -$494 -14.2% 12.0h -
74 BIIB 5 9 -5.23% $10,000 $9,477 284 28% - -$523 -21.8% 9.1h -
75 SNOW 4 20 -6.83% $10,000 $9,317 275 31% - -$683 -21.1% 10.3h -
76 OXY 5 16 -7.63% $10,000 $9,237 281 30% - -$763 -14.1% 11.1h -
77 TLT 3 9 -7.77% $10,000 $9,223 268 34% - -$777 -7.1% 12.0h -
78 BMY 3 35🔥 -8.46% $10,000 $9,154 276 28% - -$846 -14.5% 9.3h -
79 MDT 4 6 -8.93% $10,000 $9,107 270 25% - -$893 -12.9% 12.0h -
80 BRK-B 4 7 -9.25% $10,000 $9,075 277 23% - -$925 -16.1% 10.0h -
81 NET 5 9 -10.34% $10,000 $8,966 271 29% - -$1,034 -27.1% 9.4h -
82 AMD 5 50🔥 -11.87% $10,000 $8,813 279 29% - -$1,187 -38.6% 8.9h -
83 IBM 5 27🔥 -13.64% $10,000 $8,636 271 34% - -$1,364 -12.8% 9.8h -
84 ACN 5 9 -14.04% $10,000 $8,596 276 33% - -$1,404 -7.8% 11.9h -
85 TMO 5 9 -15.05% $10,000 $8,495 288 26% - -$1,505 -14.5% 9.4h -
86 RBLX 4 7 -15.96% $10,000 $8,404 277 32% - -$1,596 -23.0% 10.9h -
87 AAPL 4 9 -16.18% $10,000 $8,382 276 28% - -$1,618 -16.9% 8.9h -
88 MCD 4 11 -16.20% $10,000 $8,380 281 30% - -$1,620 -16.7% 11.1h -
89 V 3 9 -16.27% $10,000 $8,373 273 29% - -$1,627 -12.2% 10.0h -
90 VZ 4 46🔥 -16.57% $10,000 $8,343 273 27% - -$1,657 -22.5% 13.2h -
91 PFE 4 12 -17.47% $10,000 $8,253 277 29% - -$1,747 -20.1% 11.0h -
92 TQQQ 4 38🔥 -17.51% $10,000 $8,249 266 33% - -$1,751 -36.1% 10.2h -
93 VXX 4 9 -19.12% $10,000 $8,088 291 24% - -$1,912 -42.2% 8.2h -
94 GILD 3 9 -19.91% $10,000 $8,009 279 24% - -$1,991 -19.1% 8.9h -
95 ADBE 3 7 -20.18% $10,000 $7,982 284 32% - -$2,018 -20.5% 12.0h -
96 SPXU 2 9 -23.53% $10,000 $7,647 123 30% - -$2,353 -29.7% 20.5h -
97 TSLA 4 9 -26.01% $10,000 $7,399 277 30% - -$2,601 -26.6% 10.7h -
98 REGN 2 9 -37.44% $10,000 $6,256 277 25% - -$3,744 -33.9% 8.9h -
99 NIO 2 9 -45.07% $10,000 $5,493 275 28% - -$4,507 -42.7% 8.8h -
100 ARM 3 7 -49.06% $10,000 $5,094 265 31% - -$4,906 -53.7% 10.4h -
101 MRNA 3 61🔥 -49.40% $10,000 $5,060 285 29% - -$4,940 -67.6% 11.1h -
102 AMC 2 68🔥 -58.12% $10,000 $4,188 298 18% - -$5,812 -67.5% 9.0h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.