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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jun 19, 2024 Jun 19, 2026 (730d)

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Grace Crossover $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Jan 1, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$11,248
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$1,248)
+12.48%
2-Year ROI
30.8%
Win Rate
27,489
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.6%
1 Month
+2.4%
3 Months
+2.3%
6 Months
+2.0%
YTD
+5.3%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Jun 19, 2024 Jun 19, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 SOFI 47 6🧊 +129.74% $10,000 $22,974 258 38% - +$12,974 -22.8% 11.5h -
2 RIVN 41 15🧊 +127.14% $10,000 $22,715 271 35% - +$12,715 -33.5% 10.9h -
3 PLTR 43 18🧊 +113.72% $10,000 $21,372 269 31% - +$11,372 -23.6% 12.0h -
4 MARA 33 31 +96.93% $10,000 $19,693 281 30% - +$9,693 -35.1% 9.9h -
5 PANW 50 30 +69.08% $10,000 $16,908 268 34% - +$6,908 -10.2% 10.2h -
6 GME 33 70🔥 +64.40% $10,000 $16,440 287 28% - +$6,440 -22.2% 8.2h -
7 HOOD 32 24 +60.50% $10,000 $16,050 269 31% - +$6,050 -21.5% 10.9h -
8 LCID 30 6🧊 +59.43% $10,000 $15,943 273 25% - +$5,943 -23.9% 10.4h -
9 UVXY 28 30 +54.27% $10,000 $15,427 291 26% - +$5,427 -23.5% 7.4h -
10 SCHW 55 36 +53.59% $10,000 $15,359 262 39% - +$5,359 -6.9% 10.9h -
11 GS 46 33 +53.45% $10,000 $15,345 270 34% - +$5,345 -8.5% 10.1h -
12 CSCO 58 9🧊 +51.54% $10,000 $15,154 266 36% - +$5,154 -5.8% 11.6h -
13 XLK 38 47 +46.05% $10,000 $14,605 260 37% - +$4,605 -13.1% 10.5h -
14 PM 57 9🧊 +44.99% $10,000 $14,499 257 30% - +$4,499 -4.1% 12.3h -
15 CRWD 28 7🧊 +43.96% $10,000 $14,396 259 34% - +$4,396 -20.9% 11.7h -
16 WMT 49 20🧊 +43.83% $10,000 $14,383 267 34% - +$4,383 -6.4% 14.1h -
17 LLY 32 30 +41.27% $10,000 $14,127 275 33% - +$4,127 -13.5% 10.7h -
18 USO 32 7🧊 +38.85% $10,000 $13,885 262 35% - +$3,885 -11.7% 10.8h -
19 RIOT 23 6 +35.39% $10,000 $13,539 267 29% - +$3,539 -34.2% 9.1h -
20 AMGN 42 36 +33.08% $10,000 $13,308 282 33% - +$3,308 -5.9% 10.1h -
21 WFC 32 49 +32.70% $10,000 $13,270 268 33% - +$3,270 -10.6% 11.2h -
22 GLD 41 5🧊 +31.28% $10,000 $13,128 260 35% - +$3,128 -6.1% 12.6h -
23 SMCI 20 30 +30.27% $10,000 $13,027 278 27% - +$3,027 -43.0% 10.0h -
24 CVX 31 9🧊 +29.60% $10,000 $12,960 272 31% - +$2,960 -10.7% 11.2h -
25 SNOW 23 72🔥 +29.60% $10,000 $12,960 274 31% - +$2,960 -21.1% 10.3h -
26 VRTX 29 7🧊 +27.22% $10,000 $12,722 276 33% - +$2,722 -9.6% 11.3h -
27 GOOGL 23 29 +26.91% $10,000 $12,691 270 33% - +$2,691 -22.4% 10.5h -
28 DKNG 22 20 +26.90% $10,000 $12,690 284 33% - +$2,690 -25.0% 11.5h -
29 MRK 25 59🔥 +24.44% $10,000 $12,444 266 33% - +$2,444 -15.0% 11.4h -
30 JPM 28 40 +23.90% $10,000 $12,390 277 29% - +$2,390 -9.6% 10.5h -
31 CRM 23 19 +23.32% $10,000 $12,332 282 28% - +$2,332 -15.0% 9.6h -
32 SLV 23 6 +22.05% $10,000 $12,205 263 32% - +$2,205 -14.1% 11.3h -
33 ARKK 24 50🔥 +20.99% $10,000 $12,099 266 31% - +$2,099 -13.9% 11.5h -
34 IWM 27 45 +20.18% $10,000 $12,018 272 30% - +$2,018 -8.0% 9.6h -
35 MU 17 16 +18.99% $10,000 $11,899 250 30% - +$1,899 -48.4% 10.8h -
36 XOM 28 9 +18.91% $10,000 $11,891 272 32% - +$1,891 -7.7% 11.2h -
37 SQQQ 18 31 +17.60% $10,000 $11,760 271 29% - +$1,760 -27.4% 9.4h -
38 AXP 21 49🔥 +16.68% $10,000 $11,668 273 32% - +$1,668 -17.9% 10.5h -
39 MS 22 9 +16.23% $10,000 $11,623 272 35% - +$1,623 -12.1% 8.7h -
40 PEP 27 7 +15.71% $10,000 $11,571 267 34% - +$1,571 -6.0% 11.3h -
41 QQQ 23 11 +14.95% $10,000 $11,495 258 33% - +$1,495 -9.3% 11.6h -
42 NFLX 19 9 +14.68% $10,000 $11,468 277 32% - +$1,468 -13.6% 11.4h -
43 INTC 17 9 +14.15% $10,000 $11,415 281 27% - +$1,415 -21.5% 7.8h -
44 SOXL 15 15 +13.67% $10,000 $11,367 258 33% - +$1,367 -51.2% 11.0h -
45 MA 21 19 +11.71% $10,000 $11,171 277 27% - +$1,171 -9.3% 9.0h -
46 BAC 17 20 +10.46% $10,000 $11,046 265 34% - +$1,046 -19.3% 10.2h -
47 COIN 15 9 +9.58% $10,000 $10,958 275 28% - +$958 -23.0% 10.2h -
48 VOO 22 10 +8.90% $10,000 $10,890 264 32% - +$890 -4.8% 8.9h -
49 SPY 20 14 +8.80% $10,000 $10,880 263 32% - +$880 -6.4% 9.3h -
50 C 16 9 +8.70% $10,000 $10,870 269 33% - +$870 -16.6% 10.1h -
51 COST 17 9 +8.17% $10,000 $10,817 275 29% - +$817 -8.3% 12.2h -
52 BLK 16 10 +7.47% $10,000 $10,747 266 35% - +$747 -8.6% 12.4h -
53 XLF 15 36🔥 +5.91% $10,000 $10,591 273 33% - +$591 -6.8% 10.7h -
54 NVDA 13 20 +5.72% $10,000 $10,572 271 30% - +$572 -30.4% 9.6h -
55 MSFT 13 27 +5.57% $10,000 $10,557 268 32% - +$557 -19.0% 11.5h -
56 COP 14 9 +4.79% $10,000 $10,479 275 31% - +$479 -13.6% 9.7h -
57 KO 15 9 +4.76% $10,000 $10,476 259 31% - +$476 -6.4% 13.1h -
58 AVGO 10 9 +3.68% $10,000 $10,368 266 32% - +$368 -26.2% 12.5h -
59 PG 13 9 +3.32% $10,000 $10,332 270 24% - +$332 -4.6% 11.1h -
60 SLB 9 9 +2.13% $10,000 $10,213 275 33% - +$213 -17.0% 9.5h -
61 JNJ 9 23 +1.76% $10,000 $10,176 264 30% - +$176 -10.9% 11.3h -
62 ABBV 8 9 +1.49% $10,000 $10,149 276 32% - +$149 -20.2% 10.6h -
63 ISRG 8 9 +1.11% $10,000 $10,111 265 31% - +$111 -10.1% 11.6h -
64 XLE 6 13 +0.60% $10,000 $10,060 278 32% - +$60 -13.2% 11.6h -
65 DIA 7 25 +0.41% $10,000 $10,041 263 28% - +$41 -8.0% 11.1h -
66 HD 4 46🔥 -0.02% $10,000 $9,998 270 29% - -$2 -11.0% 10.3h -
67 ORCL 5 28🔥 -0.54% $10,000 $9,946 258 34% - -$54 -31.9% 11.8h -
68 UNH 5 9 -0.95% $10,000 $9,905 269 32% - -$95 -17.4% 9.8h -
69 CMCSA 5 9 -2.95% $10,000 $9,705 275 32% - -$295 -8.3% 10.3h -
70 VTI 5 9 -3.23% $10,000 $9,677 266 30% - -$323 -11.1% 8.5h -
71 META 5 9 -4.32% $10,000 $9,568 280 30% - -$432 -28.5% 9.8h -
72 DIS 4 9 -4.56% $10,000 $9,544 278 29% - -$456 -15.9% 8.6h -
73 BIIB 5 19 -5.00% $10,000 $9,500 281 28% - -$500 -21.8% 9.1h -
74 BMY 4 15 -6.35% $10,000 $9,365 273 29% - -$635 -14.5% 9.3h -
75 AMD 5 52🔥 -7.35% $10,000 $9,265 274 30% - -$735 -38.6% 8.9h -
76 PYPL 4 9 -9.03% $10,000 $9,097 256 30% - -$903 -14.2% 12.0h -
77 V 3 47🔥 -9.20% $10,000 $9,080 269 30% - -$920 -12.2% 10.0h -
78 TLT 3 6 -9.58% $10,000 $9,042 266 32% - -$958 -7.1% 12.0h -
79 BRK-B 4 9 -9.67% $10,000 $9,033 273 23% - -$967 -16.1% 10.0h -
80 AMZN 5 6 -10.76% $10,000 $8,924 270 34% - -$1,076 -24.3% 11.0h -
81 TMO 5 49🔥 -12.36% $10,000 $8,764 283 27% - -$1,236 -14.5% 9.4h -
82 RBLX 4 23 -12.95% $10,000 $8,705 275 32% - -$1,295 -23.0% 10.9h -
83 AAPL 4 40🔥 -13.24% $10,000 $8,676 271 28% - -$1,324 -16.9% 8.9h -
84 TQQQ 4 9 -15.13% $10,000 $8,487 264 32% - -$1,513 -36.1% 10.2h -
85 MCD 4 12 -15.30% $10,000 $8,470 275 30% - -$1,530 -16.7% 11.1h -
86 VZ 4 20 -15.73% $10,000 $8,427 268 28% - -$1,573 -22.5% 13.2h -
87 MDT 4 6 -16.20% $10,000 $8,380 266 24% - -$1,620 -12.9% 12.0h -
88 PFE 4 28🔥 -16.60% $10,000 $8,340 274 29% - -$1,660 -20.1% 11.0h -
89 IBM 5 9 -18.26% $10,000 $8,174 267 34% - -$1,826 -12.8% 9.8h -
90 NET 5 9 -18.67% $10,000 $8,133 271 29% - -$1,867 -27.1% 9.4h -
91 ACN 4 7 -19.92% $10,000 $8,008 272 32% - -$1,992 -7.8% 11.9h -
92 OXY 4 9 -21.16% $10,000 $7,885 276 31% - -$2,116 -14.1% 11.1h -
93 VXX 4 9 -21.96% $10,000 $7,804 288 24% - -$2,196 -42.2% 8.2h -
94 GILD 3 7 -22.39% $10,000 $7,761 275 25% - -$2,239 -19.1% 8.9h -
95 SPXU 2 7 -24.87% $10,000 $7,513 121 27% - -$2,487 -29.7% 20.5h -
96 TSLA 3 9 -27.79% $10,000 $7,221 273 32% - -$2,779 -26.6% 10.7h -
97 ADBE 4 9 -31.62% $10,000 $6,838 282 31% - -$3,162 -20.5% 12.0h -
98 ARM 3 88🔥 -34.72% $10,000 $6,528 265 32% - -$3,472 -53.7% 10.4h -
99 MRNA 4 48🔥 -37.83% $10,000 $6,217 284 30% - -$3,783 -67.6% 11.1h -
100 REGN 2 7 -46.50% $10,000 $5,350 276 24% - -$4,650 -33.9% 8.9h -
101 NIO 2 9 -52.00% $10,000 $4,800 271 28% - -$5,200 -42.7% 8.8h -
102 AMC 2 51🔥 -55.37% $10,000 $4,463 296 21% - -$5,537 -67.5% 9.0h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.