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Grace Crossover
2

Grace Crossover

The Patient One

📊 Swing Trader 📅 66 years old (Born 1960)

"The fast moving average is the heartbeat. The slow moving average is the breath. When heartbeat crosses breath, the market has made its decision."

Elegant woman in her mid-60s with silver hair in a neat bun. Minimalist wardrobe—black turtleneck, simple silver watch. Her desk is immaculate, containing only what is essential.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Jan 1, 2026 Jun 19, 2026 (168d)

📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Grace Crossover's performance over the year to date across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$11,261
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $11,035 (+$226)
+2.05%
Year to Date ROI
32.8%
Win Rate
5,554
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.5%
1 Month
+2.2%
3 Months
+2.4%
6 Months
+2.0%
YTD
+5.3%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Year to Date)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

EMA crossover - 9 EMA crossing 21 EMA signals entry

Monitors the 9-period and 21-period Exponential Moving Averages. When the fast EMA (9) crosses above the slow EMA (21), it signals bullish momentum and triggers a buy. The opposite cross triggers a sell.

🎯 Best Suited For

Stocks with clean trending behavior

"The trend is your friend until it bends."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets trend roughly 30% of the time—but that's where the big money is made. The crossover filters out noise and identifies when momentum has genuinely shifted.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

EMAt = (Close × k) + (EMAt-1 × (1 - k))
Unlike SMA, EMA weighs recent prices more heavily. The multiplier k controls sensitivity.
k = Smoothing Factor = 2 ÷ (Period + 1)
For 9 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 10 = 0.20 (20% weight to current price)
For 21 EMA: k = 2 ÷ 22 ≈ 0.0909 (9.09% weight to current price)
First EMA = SMA of first n periods (seeding)
📚 Robert Goodell Brown's "Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction" (1963)

📊 Golden Cross (Buy Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≤ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t > EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses ABOVE the slow EMA indicates bullish momentum shift.
EMA_fast = 9-period EMA (the "heartbeat")
EMA_slow = 21-period EMA (the "breath")
Cross detected: previous bar fast ≤ slow, current bar fast > slow
📚 Richard Donchian's trend-following system (1960s)

📊 Death Cross (Sell Signal)

Signal = (EMAfast,t-1 ≥ EMAslow,t-1) AND (EMAfast,t < EMAslow,t)
The moment the fast EMA crosses BELOW the slow EMA indicates bearish momentum shift.
Fast EMA falls below slow EMA = trend reversal
Exit signal overrides hold, even if target not reached
📚 Classic technical analysis, popularized by John Murphy

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.08 (+8% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.95 (-5% loss)
• DEATH_CROSS: Fast EMA crosses below Slow EMA
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 60 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

FAST_EMA_PERIOD: 9
SLOW_EMA_PERIOD: 21
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 8%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -5%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 60
STARTING_CAPITAL: 10000

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Richard Donchian, Father of Trend Following

Richard Donchian began trading in the 1930s but didn't formalize his moving average crossover systems until the 1960s. His insight was profound: you don't need to predict where markets will go—you only need to recognize when they've started going there.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Year to Date: Jan 1, 2026 Jun 19, 2026 (168 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return YTD Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 MRNA 4 41🔥 +50.13% $4,141 $6,217 59 42% - +$2,076 -67.6% 11.1h -
2 SNOW 23 69🔥 +48.15% $8,748 $12,960 51 29% - +$4,212 -21.1% 10.3h -
3 MU 17 31 +31.05% $9,080 $11,899 56 43% - +$2,819 -48.4% 10.8h -
4 PANW 49 30 +29.35% $13,071 $16,908 48 42% - +$3,836 -10.2% 10.2h -
5 USO 32 9🧊 +29.00% $10,763 $13,885 54 41% - +$3,121 -11.7% 10.8h -
6 ARM 3 88🔥 +23.33% $5,293 $6,528 53 40% - +$1,235 -53.7% 10.4h -
7 RIVN 41 18🧊 +21.86% $18,640 $22,715 52 40% - +$4,075 -33.5% 10.9h -
8 XLK 38 47 +21.55% $12,016 $14,605 48 46% - +$2,589 -13.1% 10.5h -
9 MRK 25 60🔥 +19.86% $10,382 $12,444 56 41% - +$2,062 -15.0% 11.4h -
10 CVX 30 9🧊 +19.11% $10,881 $12,960 55 40% - +$2,079 -10.7% 11.2h -
11 SOXL 15 14 +18.68% $9,578 $11,367 52 38% - +$1,789 -51.2% 11.0h -
12 CSCO 58 9🧊 +18.16% $12,825 $15,154 52 38% - +$2,329 -5.8% 11.6h -
13 AMC 2 45🔥 +16.32% $3,836 $4,463 63 27% - +$626 -67.5% 9.0h -
14 LCID 30 6🧊 +15.31% $13,826 $15,943 54 30% - +$2,117 -23.9% 10.4h -
15 ARKK 24 39 +14.63% $10,555 $12,099 55 36% - +$1,544 -13.9% 11.5h -
16 WFC 33 55🔥 +13.44% $11,698 $13,270 51 39% - +$1,572 -10.6% 11.2h -
17 GME 33 69🔥 +13.39% $14,498 $16,440 61 31% - +$1,941 -22.2% 8.2h -
18 INTC 17 9 +13.14% $10,089 $11,415 54 28% - +$1,326 -21.5% 7.8h -
19 DKNG 22 22 +12.99% $11,231 $12,690 60 32% - +$1,459 -25.0% 11.5h -
20 PLTR 42 18🧊 +12.69% $18,965 $21,372 53 28% - +$2,407 -23.6% 12.0h -
21 GOOGL 23 27 +12.54% $11,277 $12,691 54 39% - +$1,414 -22.4% 10.5h -
22 SCHW 54 35 +12.24% $13,684 $15,359 50 46% - +$1,675 -6.9% 10.9h -
23 ORCL 5 27🔥 +11.06% $8,955 $9,946 48 44% - +$990 -31.9% 11.8h -
24 LLY 33 30 +10.11% $12,830 $14,127 53 38% - +$1,297 -13.5% 10.7h -
25 SQQQ 18 31 +9.27% $10,762 $11,760 55 33% - +$998 -27.4% 9.4h -
26 XOM 28 9 +9.25% $10,884 $11,891 53 43% - +$1,007 -7.7% 11.2h -
27 AMD 5 63🔥 +9.12% $8,490 $9,265 55 40% - +$774 -38.6% 8.9h -
28 ABBV 8 9 +9.04% $9,308 $10,149 60 32% - +$841 -20.2% 10.6h -
29 GS 45 30 +8.94% $14,086 $15,345 55 38% - +$1,259 -8.5% 10.1h -
30 META 5 9 +8.92% $8,785 $9,568 55 35% - +$784 -28.5% 9.8h -
31 BAC 17 21 +8.58% $10,173 $11,046 47 45% - +$873 -19.3% 10.2h -
32 MSFT 13 27 +6.97% $9,869 $10,557 52 40% - +$688 -19.0% 11.5h -
33 AXP 21 41 +6.51% $10,955 $11,668 56 36% - +$713 -17.9% 10.5h -
34 JNJ 9 23 +6.32% $9,571 $10,176 51 37% - +$605 -10.9% 11.3h -
35 HD 4 46🔥 +6.11% $9,422 $9,998 53 32% - +$576 -11.0% 10.3h -
36 IWM 27 40 +5.00% $11,446 $12,018 54 31% - +$572 -8.0% 9.6h -
37 MA 21 33 +4.96% $10,643 $11,171 58 33% - +$528 -9.3% 9.0h -
38 BMY 4 15 +4.22% $8,986 $9,365 52 37% - +$379 -14.5% 9.3h -
39 XLE 7 13 +3.87% $9,685 $10,060 58 43% - +$375 -13.2% 11.6h -
40 AVGO 11 9 +3.84% $9,985 $10,368 53 40% - +$383 -26.2% 12.5h -
41 NFLX 19 9 +3.82% $11,046 $11,468 56 34% - +$422 -13.6% 11.4h -
42 PM 58 9🧊 +3.76% $13,973 $14,499 48 35% - +$525 -4.1% 12.3h -
43 SMCI 20 29 +3.72% $12,559 $13,027 52 27% - +$467 -43.0% 10.0h -
44 WMT 49 22🧊 +3.41% $13,909 $14,383 51 37% - +$474 -6.4% 14.1h -
45 VRTX 30 6🧊 +2.79% $12,376 $12,722 55 29% - +$345 -9.6% 11.3h -
46 BIIB 5 19 +2.78% $9,243 $9,500 57 33% - +$257 -21.8% 9.1h -
47 UNH 5 7 +2.66% $9,648 $9,905 53 30% - +$257 -17.4% 9.8h -
48 MARA 33 31 +2.57% $19,200 $19,693 56 36% - +$493 -35.1% 9.9h -
49 AMGN 42 36 +2.26% $13,014 $13,308 63 29% - +$294 -5.9% 10.1h -
50 MS 22 12 +2.20% $11,373 $11,623 52 44% - +$250 -12.1% 8.7h -
51 BRK-B 4 9 +1.96% $8,860 $9,033 52 27% - +$174 -16.1% 10.0h -
52 DIA 7 20 +1.46% $9,897 $10,041 50 32% - +$144 -8.0% 11.1h -
53 PFE 4 25🔥 +1.24% $8,238 $8,340 57 40% - +$102 -20.1% 11.0h -
54 COST 17 9 +0.19% $10,797 $10,817 53 38% - +$21 -8.3% 12.2h -
55 QQQ 23 10 +0.12% $11,481 $11,495 53 38% - +$14 -9.3% 11.6h -
56 JPM 28 40 -0.29% $12,426 $12,390 54 31% - -$36 -9.6% 10.5h -
57 KO 15 9 -0.54% $10,533 $10,476 55 36% - -$57 -6.4% 13.1h -
58 VZ 4 28🔥 -0.56% $8,475 $8,427 52 33% - -$47 -22.5% 13.2h -
59 SPY 20 11 -0.77% $10,965 $10,880 55 31% - -$84 -6.4% 9.3h -
60 SLV 23 6 -0.85% $12,309 $12,205 50 36% - -$105 -14.1% 11.3h -
61 PEP 27 7 -1.17% $11,708 $11,571 55 31% - -$137 -6.0% 11.3h -
62 XLF 16 36🔥 -1.53% $10,755 $10,591 53 38% - -$165 -6.8% 10.7h -
63 VTI 5 9 -1.77% $9,852 $9,677 52 33% - -$174 -11.1% 8.5h -
64 V 3 56🔥 -2.10% $9,275 $9,080 54 33% - -$195 -12.2% 10.0h -
65 CRM 23 19 -2.17% $12,605 $12,332 58 31% - -$274 -15.0% 9.6h -
66 VOO 22 10 -2.41% $11,159 $10,890 54 33% - -$269 -4.8% 8.9h -
67 NVDA 13 21 -2.67% $10,862 $10,572 52 33% - -$290 -30.4% 9.6h -
68 MCD 4 12 -2.82% $8,716 $8,470 54 37% - -$246 -16.7% 11.1h -
69 GLD 44 5🧊 -2.85% $13,513 $13,128 55 33% - -$385 -6.1% 12.6h -
70 UVXY 28 28 -3.97% $16,065 $15,427 63 25% - -$638 -23.5% 7.4h -
71 ISRG 8 9 -4.23% $10,558 $10,111 52 33% - -$447 -10.1% 11.6h -
72 HOOD 32 23 -4.69% $16,840 $16,050 53 30% - -$790 -21.5% 10.9h -
73 DIS 4 9 -4.86% $10,031 $9,544 60 23% - -$488 -15.9% 8.6h -
74 COP 14 9 -4.99% $11,030 $10,479 55 25% - -$550 -13.6% 9.7h -
75 SOFI 50 6🧊 -5.46% $24,301 $22,974 53 38% - -$1,327 -22.8% 11.5h -
76 TLT 3 7 -5.87% $9,606 $9,042 58 22% - -$564 -7.1% 12.0h -
77 AAPL 4 40🔥 -5.94% $9,224 $8,676 57 30% - -$548 -16.9% 8.9h -
78 CRWD 28 9 -6.36% $15,374 $14,396 50 32% - -$978 -20.9% 11.7h -
79 AMZN 5 7 -7.76% $9,675 $8,924 54 28% - -$751 -24.3% 11.0h -
80 CMCSA 5 9 -8.63% $10,621 $9,705 53 30% - -$917 -8.3% 10.3h -
81 BLK 17 9 -8.84% $11,790 $10,747 58 29% - -$1,042 -8.6% 12.4h -
82 GILD 3 7 -9.23% $8,551 $7,761 58 17% - -$789 -19.1% 8.9h -
83 TMO 5 53🔥 -9.38% $9,671 $8,764 56 32% - -$907 -14.5% 9.4h -
84 RIOT 23 7 -9.65% $14,985 $13,539 54 24% - -$1,446 -34.2% 9.1h -
85 SPXU 2 7 -10.14% $8,361 $7,513 55 31% - -$848 -29.7% 20.5h -
86 PYPL 4 9 -10.17% $10,127 $9,097 54 20% - -$1,030 -14.2% 12.0h -
87 SLB 14 27 -10.47% $11,408 $10,213 54 26% - -$1,194 -17.0% 9.5h -
88 VXX 4 9 -11.80% $8,848 $7,804 59 22% - -$1,044 -42.2% 8.2h -
89 C 16 9 -12.39% $12,408 $10,870 54 26% - -$1,537 -16.6% 10.1h -
90 MDT 4 6 -12.86% $9,617 $8,380 51 25% - -$1,237 -12.9% 12.0h -
91 TQQQ 4 9 -13.11% $9,768 $8,487 55 25% - -$1,281 -36.1% 10.2h -
92 RBLX 4 7 -13.29% $10,040 $8,705 58 31% - -$1,334 -23.0% 10.9h -
93 IBM 5 9 -14.03% $9,508 $8,174 54 31% - -$1,334 -12.8% 9.8h -
94 PG 13 9 -17.26% $12,487 $10,332 55 15% - -$2,155 -4.6% 11.1h -
95 TSLA 3 7 -17.58% $8,761 $7,221 56 25% - -$1,540 -26.6% 10.7h -
96 OXY 4 9 -18.76% $9,705 $7,885 55 36% - -$1,821 -14.1% 11.1h -
97 REGN 2 9 -19.71% $6,664 $5,350 57 19% - -$1,313 -33.9% 8.9h -
98 NET 5 9 -21.24% $10,327 $8,133 57 25% - -$2,193 -27.1% 9.4h -
99 COIN 15 9 -22.43% $14,127 $10,958 55 29% - -$3,169 -23.0% 10.2h -
100 ACN 4 6 -22.58% $10,343 $8,008 56 20% - -$2,336 -7.8% 11.9h -
101 NIO 2 9 -26.57% $6,537 $4,800 56 21% - -$1,737 -42.7% 8.8h -
102 ADBE 4 9 -28.23% $9,528 $6,838 59 25% - -$2,690 -20.5% 12.0h -

👤 Personality

Zen-like patience. Never chases trades. Believes rushing leads to ruin. Speaks slowly and deliberately. Has been known to wait months for the perfect entry.