11
Rebel Contraire
The Rebel
⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."
Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.
ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.
📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Rebel Contraire $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE
$13,376
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at:
$10,000
(+$3,376)
+33.76%
2-Year ROI
56.7%
Win Rate
18,213
Total Trades
Quick Performance Comparison
Click any period to view detailed stats
Equity Curve (2 Years)
Combined P&L across all 102 symbols
⚙️ Trading Strategy
Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal
After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.
🎯 Best Suited For
Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades
"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."
📜 Why This Strategy Works
Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.
Mathematical Formula
CODE VERIFIED —
These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php
📊 Entry Signal
📈 Entry Signal
3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price
📉 Exit Conditions
• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days
⚙️ Simulation Parameters
CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS:
3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT:
-3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
5
📖 Historical Origin
Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"
Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.
🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📊 All Symbol Results
Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve
📅 2 Years:
Sep 25, 2024
→
Sep 25, 2026
(730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite
60+ Good
40+ Fair
<40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot
60+ Active
40+ Moderate
<40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance.
Full methodology →
| Rank | Symbol | Score | Mom | Return | Start | Final Value | Trades | Win Rate | Fees | Net | Max DD | Avg Hold | Refunds | Last Refund | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
MRNA 🔥 PRO
|
77 | 62 | +429.22% | $10,000 | $52,922 | 276 | 64% | - | +$42,922 | -42.5% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 2 |
GOOGL
|
63 | 58 | +178.45% | $10,000 | $27,845 | 165 | 64% | - | +$17,845 | -25.1% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 3 |
SNOW
|
50 | 58 | +176.97% | $10,000 | $27,698 | 221 | 62% | - | +$17,698 | -41.0% | 2.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 4 |
SOXL
|
51 | 91🔥 | +171.04% | $10,000 | $27,104 | 299 | 61% | - | +$17,104 | -33.0% | 20.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 5 |
PLTR
|
56 | 39 | +155.02% | $10,000 | $25,502 | 246 | 62% | - | +$15,502 | -26.0% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 6 |
PANW
|
61 | 49 | +134.10% | $10,000 | $23,410 | 199 | 64% | - | +$13,410 | -18.6% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 7 |
CVX
|
70 | 23🧊 | +124.01% | $10,000 | $22,401 | 143 | 66% | - | +$12,401 | -12.9% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 8 |
MU
|
45 | 50 | +121.84% | $10,000 | $22,184 | 246 | 63% | - | +$12,184 | -32.2% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 9 |
XLE
|
70 | 26🧊 | +120.10% | $10,000 | $22,010 | 144 | 64% | - | +$12,010 | -12.9% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 10 |
AXP
|
59 | 5🧊 | +99.13% | $10,000 | $19,913 | 159 | 60% | - | +$9,913 | -13.8% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 11 |
CSCO
|
70 | 5🧊 | +98.71% | $10,000 | $19,871 | 146 | 60% | - | +$9,871 | -9.7% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 12 |
NVDA
|
40 | 25 | +92.86% | $10,000 | $19,286 | 201 | 60% | - | +$9,286 | -35.3% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 13 |
INTC
|
35 | 86🔥 | +82.92% | $10,000 | $18,292 | 250 | 62% | - | +$8,292 | -45.8% | 1.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 14 |
NET
|
40 | 48 | +82.89% | $10,000 | $18,289 | 235 | 63% | - | +$8,289 | -29.4% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 15 |
AAPL
|
49 | 40 | +82.64% | $10,000 | $18,264 | 144 | 65% | - | +$8,264 | -20.3% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 16 |
GLD
|
57 | 2🧊 | +79.86% | $10,000 | $17,986 | 135 | 59% | - | +$7,986 | -11.3% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 17 |
GS
|
50 | 5🧊 | +73.32% | $10,000 | $17,332 | 165 | 59% | - | +$7,332 | -13.2% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 18 |
XOM
|
50 | 10🧊 | +70.93% | $10,000 | $17,093 | 154 | 63% | - | +$7,093 | -13.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 19 |
WMT
|
49 | 48 | +66.80% | $10,000 | $16,680 | 145 | 61% | - | +$6,680 | -14.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 20 |
AMD
|
32 | 69🔥 | +65.45% | $10,000 | $16,545 | 233 | 61% | - | +$6,545 | -52.6% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 21 |
VOO
|
59 | 3🧊 | +63.30% | $10,000 | $16,330 | 122 | 60% | - | +$6,330 | -9.6% | 4.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 22 |
JNJ
|
55 | 30🧊 | +62.89% | $10,000 | $16,289 | 135 | 62% | - | +$6,289 | -9.8% | 4.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 23 |
V
|
49 | 2🧊 | +62.75% | $10,000 | $16,275 | 137 | 54% | - | +$6,275 | -11.9% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 24 |
BAC
|
42 | 3🧊 | +62.42% | $10,000 | $16,242 | 150 | 59% | - | +$6,242 | -19.8% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 25 |
GILD
|
42 | 26 | +61.20% | $10,000 | $16,120 | 151 | 60% | - | +$6,120 | -16.0% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 26 |
BRK-B
|
53 | 42 | +60.25% | $10,000 | $16,025 | 129 | 56% | - | +$6,025 | -10.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 27 |
RBLX
|
37 | 61🔥 | +58.08% | $10,000 | $15,808 | 233 | 61% | - | +$5,808 | -34.9% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 28 |
META
|
34 | 79🔥 | +57.88% | $10,000 | $15,788 | 172 | 58% | - | +$5,788 | -36.9% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 29 |
SPY
|
55 | 3🧊 | +56.38% | $10,000 | $15,638 | 122 | 62% | - | +$5,638 | -9.7% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 30 |
MA
|
44 | 14🧊 | +54.06% | $10,000 | $15,406 | 139 | 59% | - | +$5,406 | -12.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 31 |
XLF
|
41 | 3🧊 | +52.62% | $10,000 | $15,262 | 120 | 55% | - | +$5,262 | -17.8% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 32 |
VTI
|
51 | 3🧊 | +52.11% | $10,000 | $15,211 | 122 | 61% | - | +$5,211 | -10.5% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 33 |
USO
|
35 | 58🔥 | +50.51% | $10,000 | $15,051 | 175 | 63% | - | +$5,051 | -29.6% | 3.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 34 |
GME
|
33 | 75🔥 | +50.34% | $10,000 | $15,034 | 206 | 61% | - | +$5,034 | -32.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 35 |
PM
|
38 | 14🧊 | +50.30% | $10,000 | $15,030 | 153 | 58% | - | +$5,030 | -19.7% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 36 |
NFLX
|
37 | 13🧊 | +48.09% | $10,000 | $14,809 | 161 | 58% | - | +$4,809 | -19.6% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 37 |
SCHW
|
39 | 11🧊 | +47.44% | $10,000 | $14,744 | 145 | 62% | - | +$4,744 | -16.1% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 38 |
SLV
|
37 | 28 | +47.30% | $10,000 | $14,730 | 183 | 58% | - | +$4,730 | -18.7% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 39 |
JPM
|
36 | 6🧊 | +46.86% | $10,000 | $14,686 | 146 | 58% | - | +$4,686 | -21.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 40 |
MS
|
36 | 10🧊 | +45.58% | $10,000 | $14,558 | 155 | 59% | - | +$4,558 | -18.0% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 41 |
DIA
|
43 | 3🧊 | +44.00% | $10,000 | $14,400 | 118 | 57% | - | +$4,400 | -13.6% | 5.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 42 |
TSLA
|
31 | 28 | +42.37% | $10,000 | $14,237 | 232 | 59% | - | +$4,237 | -37.6% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 43 |
WFC
|
36 | 26 | +41.41% | $10,000 | $14,141 | 162 | 60% | - | +$4,141 | -17.9% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 44 |
C
|
34 | 33 | +40.56% | $10,000 | $14,056 | 167 | 57% | - | +$4,056 | -21.2% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 45 |
KO
|
34 | 6🧊 | +37.39% | $10,000 | $13,739 | 126 | 54% | - | +$3,739 | -18.7% | 4.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 46 |
OXY
|
31 | 10🧊 | +37.26% | $10,000 | $13,726 | 174 | 60% | - | +$3,726 | -31.5% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 47 |
COST
|
34 | 6🧊 | +36.41% | $10,000 | $13,642 | 137 | 53% | - | +$3,642 | -17.4% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 48 |
MSFT
|
33 | 12🧊 | +35.72% | $10,000 | $13,572 | 148 | 57% | - | +$3,572 | -19.1% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 49 |
HOOD
|
29 | 12 | +34.64% | $10,000 | $13,464 | 269 | 59% | - | +$3,464 | -32.1% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 50 |
IWM
|
36 | 3🧊 | +34.48% | $10,000 | $13,448 | 138 | 51% | - | +$3,448 | -11.9% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 51 |
COP
|
33 | 34 | +32.90% | $10,000 | $13,290 | 170 | 58% | - | +$3,290 | -20.4% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 52 |
BLK
|
32 | 5🧊 | +32.30% | $10,000 | $13,230 | 153 | 52% | - | +$3,230 | -17.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 53 |
AMGN
|
32 | 12 | +31.03% | $10,000 | $13,103 | 153 | 57% | - | +$3,103 | -20.8% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 54 |
SPXU
|
28 | 17 | +28.41% | $10,000 | $12,841 | 132 | 58% | - | +$2,841 | -29.5% | 2.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 55 |
ARM
|
29 | 56🔥 | +26.32% | $10,000 | $12,632 | 255 | 61% | - | +$2,632 | -36.8% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 56 |
BMY
|
25 | 3🧊 | +23.00% | $10,000 | $12,300 | 160 | 56% | - | +$2,300 | -39.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 57 |
AVGO
|
28 | 6🧊 | +22.25% | $10,000 | $12,225 | 203 | 56% | - | +$2,225 | -21.1% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 58 |
VRTX
|
27 | 3🧊 | +19.53% | $10,000 | $11,953 | 153 | 59% | - | +$1,953 | -21.3% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 59 |
LLY
|
23 | 5 | +18.65% | $10,000 | $11,865 | 180 | 53% | - | +$1,865 | -33.4% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 60 |
VZ
|
28 | 10 | +18.12% | $10,000 | $11,812 | 137 | 57% | - | +$1,812 | -15.3% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 61 |
ORCL
|
26 | 29 | +17.16% | $10,000 | $11,716 | 215 | 54% | - | +$1,716 | -37.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 62 |
PG
|
27 | 38 | +17.12% | $10,000 | $11,712 | 133 | 53% | - | +$1,712 | -19.3% | 4.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 63 |
ABBV
|
25 | 30 | +16.27% | $10,000 | $11,627 | 148 | 57% | - | +$1,627 | -25.0% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 64 |
PEP
|
25 | 10 | +15.88% | $10,000 | $11,588 | 135 | 53% | - | +$1,588 | -16.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 65 |
MRK
|
22 | 9 | +9.34% | $10,000 | $10,934 | 159 | 59% | - | +$934 | -29.6% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 66 |
AMZN
|
21 | 5 | +9.13% | $10,000 | $10,913 | 167 | 54% | - | +$913 | -27.2% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 67 |
PYPL
|
21 | 26 | +8.61% | $10,000 | $10,861 | 170 | 55% | - | +$861 | -52.5% | 2.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 68 |
XLK
|
21 | 5 | +8.27% | $10,000 | $10,827 | 148 | 58% | - | +$827 | -30.8% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 69 |
TMO
|
19 | 5 | +7.45% | $10,000 | $10,745 | 162 | 56% | - | +$745 | -23.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 70 |
QQQ
|
17 | 3 | +2.18% | $10,000 | $10,218 | 130 | 55% | - | +$218 | -24.0% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 71 |
CRWD
|
— | — | +0.00% | 🔄 $5,800 | $-4,200 | NO ENTRY | - | - | -$10,000 | -37.8% | 1.8d | 1 | Jul 6, 2026 | |
| 72 |
MDT
|
15 | 6 | -0.07% | $10,000 | $9,993 | 137 | 52% | - | -$7 | -15.1% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 73 |
SLB
|
11 | 9 | -0.41% | $10,000 | $9,959 | 176 | 56% | - | -$41 | -24.3% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 74 |
BIIB
|
11 | 6 | -2.45% | $10,000 | $9,755 | 167 | 53% | - | -$245 | -32.7% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 75 |
MCD
|
9 | 5 | -7.54% | $10,000 | $9,246 | 124 | 46% | - | -$754 | -15.2% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 76 |
UVXY
|
10 | 12 | -8.29% | $10,000 | $9,171 | 275 | 59% | - | -$829 | -48.5% | 22.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 77 |
ISRG
|
12 | 63🔥 | -11.48% | $10,000 | $8,852 | 160 | 51% | - | -$1,148 | -39.2% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 78 |
TLT
|
10 | 3 | -12.10% | $10,000 | $8,790 | 112 | 49% | - | -$1,210 | -15.8% | 5.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 79 |
PFE
|
10 | 10 | -12.85% | $10,000 | $8,715 | 144 | 52% | - | -$1,285 | -30.4% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 80 |
DKNG
|
13 | 18 | -12.99% | $10,000 | $8,701 | 221 | 56% | - | -$1,299 | -46.7% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 81 |
DIS
|
8 | 3 | -15.49% | $10,000 | $8,451 | 142 | 49% | - | -$1,549 | -25.4% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 82 |
REGN
|
11 | 6 | -17.68% | $10,000 | $8,232 | 169 | 57% | - | -$1,768 | -42.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 83 |
HD
|
9 | 3 | -18.33% | $10,000 | $8,167 | 146 | 46% | - | -$1,833 | -18.6% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 84 |
MARA
|
12 | 35🔥 | -19.41% | $10,000 | $8,059 | 319 | 56% | - | -$1,941 | -40.2% | 16.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 85 |
SQQQ
|
10 | 39🔥 | -19.67% | $10,000 | $8,033 | 241 | 58% | - | -$1,967 | -53.7% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 86 |
SOFI
|
11 | 31 | -21.99% | $10,000 | $7,801 | 248 | 54% | - | -$2,199 | -43.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 87 |
ARKK
|
12 | 49🔥 | -23.22% | $10,000 | $7,678 | 188 | 61% | - | -$2,322 | -23.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 88 |
SMCI
|
11 | 46🔥 | -24.94% | $10,000 | $7,506 | 287 | 58% | - | -$2,494 | -63.9% | 22.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 89 |
UNH
|
10 | 9 | -28.18% | $10,000 | $7,182 | 162 | 54% | - | -$2,818 | -41.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 90 |
IBM
|
12 | 9 | -32.97% | $10,000 | $6,703 | 175 | 58% | - | -$3,297 | -11.2% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 91 |
TQQQ
|
12 | 17 | -34.49% | $10,000 | $6,551 | 236 | 56% | - | -$3,449 | -41.0% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 92 |
CRM
|
11 | 9 | -39.61% | $10,000 | $6,039 | 181 | 56% | - | -$3,961 | -46.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 93 |
ACN
|
8 | 10 | -40.12% | $10,000 | $5,988 | 165 | 51% | - | -$4,012 | -41.3% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 94 |
ADBE
|
9 | 9 | -40.53% | $10,000 | $5,947 | 171 | 50% | - | -$4,053 | -40.9% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 95 |
VXX
|
9 | 14 | -47.33% | $10,000 | $5,267 | 226 | 56% | - | -$4,733 | -57.1% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 96 |
CMCSA
|
7 | 6 | -52.16% | $10,000 | $4,784 | 146 | 46% | - | -$5,216 | -47.7% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 97 |
RIOT
|
11 | 61🔥 | -52.44% | $10,000 | $4,756 | 319 | 59% | - | -$5,244 | -55.6% | 17.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 98 |
NIO
|
8 | 6 | -56.03% | $10,000 | $4,397 | 232 | 53% | - | -$5,603 | -39.7% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 99 |
RIVN
|
10 | 12 | -57.14% | $10,000 | $4,286 | 265 | 58% | - | -$5,714 | -60.0% | 1.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 100 |
AMC
|
9 | 53🔥 | -62.26% | $10,000 | $3,774 | 226 | 53% | - | -$6,226 | -57.1% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 101 |
COIN
|
9 | 23 | -62.27% | $10,000 | $3,773 | 284 | 55% | - | -$6,227 | -67.1% | 23.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 102 |
LCID
|
9 | 53🔥 | -67.16% | $10,000 | $3,284 | 273 | 56% | - | -$6,716 | -69.8% | 23.6h | ✓ | - |
👤 Personality
Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.