11
Rebel Contraire
The Rebel
⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."
Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.
ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.
📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Rebel Contraire $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE
$12,469
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at:
$10,000
(+$2,469)
+24.69%
2-Year ROI
57.9%
Win Rate
18,184
Total Trades
Quick Performance Comparison
Click any period to view detailed stats
Equity Curve (2 Years)
Combined P&L across all 102 symbols
⚙️ Trading Strategy
Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal
After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.
🎯 Best Suited For
Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades
"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."
📜 Why This Strategy Works
Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.
Mathematical Formula
CODE VERIFIED —
These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php
📊 Entry Signal
📈 Entry Signal
3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price
📉 Exit Conditions
• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days
⚙️ Simulation Parameters
CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS:
3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT:
-3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
5
📖 Historical Origin
Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"
Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.
🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📊 All Symbol Results
Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve
📅 2 Years:
Jun 21, 2024
→
Jun 21, 2026
(730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite
60+ Good
40+ Fair
<40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot
60+ Active
40+ Moderate
<40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance.
Full methodology →
| Rank | Symbol | Score | Mom | Return | Start | Final Value | Trades | Win Rate | Fees | Net | Max DD | Avg Hold | Refunds | Last Refund | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GOOGL
|
56 | 3🧊 | +142.42% | $10,000 | $24,242 | 162 | 62% | - | +$14,242 | -25.1% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 2 |
MRNA
|
45 | 55 | +133.05% | $10,000 | $23,305 | 268 | 64% | - | +$13,305 | -42.5% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 3 |
SNOW
|
44 | 70🔥 | +128.96% | $10,000 | $22,896 | 217 | 61% | - | +$12,896 | -41.0% | 2.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 4 |
MU
|
46 | 64 | +120.80% | $10,000 | $22,080 | 235 | 61% | - | +$12,080 | -32.2% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 5 |
GS
|
67 | 57 | +119.80% | $10,000 | $21,980 | 165 | 62% | - | +$11,980 | -13.2% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 6 |
SOXL
|
43 | 26 | +108.67% | $10,000 | $20,867 | 297 | 60% | - | +$10,867 | -33.0% | 20.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 7 |
CSCO
|
72 | 30🧊 | +108.14% | $10,000 | $20,814 | 143 | 62% | - | +$10,814 | -9.7% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 8 |
AXP
|
60 | 30🧊 | +99.61% | $10,000 | $19,961 | 160 | 64% | - | +$9,961 | -13.8% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 9 |
CVX
|
63 | 3🧊 | +94.34% | $10,000 | $19,434 | 142 | 64% | - | +$9,434 | -12.9% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 10 |
PLTR
|
44 | 9🧊 | +90.51% | $10,000 | $19,051 | 250 | 63% | - | +$9,051 | -26.0% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 11 |
GLD
|
62 | 5🧊 | +86.38% | $10,000 | $18,638 | 133 | 62% | - | +$8,638 | -11.3% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 12 |
NVDA
|
39 | 6🧊 | +85.03% | $10,000 | $18,503 | 213 | 59% | - | +$8,503 | -35.3% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 13 |
MS
|
48 | 59 | +82.33% | $10,000 | $18,233 | 153 | 63% | - | +$8,233 | -18.0% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 14 |
PANW
|
47 | 50 | +78.65% | $10,000 | $17,865 | 190 | 63% | - | +$7,865 | -18.6% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 15 |
XLE
|
55 | 3🧊 | +77.38% | $10,000 | $17,738 | 142 | 62% | - | +$7,738 | -12.9% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 16 |
INTC
|
36 | 17 | +76.49% | $10,000 | $17,649 | 237 | 63% | - | +$7,649 | -45.8% | 1.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 17 |
ARM
|
38 | 15🧊 | +75.20% | $10,000 | $17,520 | 255 | 63% | - | +$7,520 | -36.8% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 18 |
NET
|
39 | 18🧊 | +68.25% | $10,000 | $16,825 | 228 | 63% | - | +$6,825 | -29.4% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 19 |
WMT
|
48 | 6🧊 | +63.44% | $10,000 | $16,344 | 139 | 61% | - | +$6,344 | -14.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 20 |
AVGO
|
39 | 19 | +62.97% | $10,000 | $16,297 | 208 | 59% | - | +$6,297 | -21.1% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 21 |
BAC
|
42 | 52 | +61.17% | $10,000 | $16,117 | 150 | 59% | - | +$6,117 | -19.8% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 22 |
VOO
|
59 | 23🧊 | +60.64% | $10,000 | $16,064 | 121 | 63% | - | +$6,064 | -9.6% | 4.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 23 |
SPY
|
55 | 18🧊 | +54.64% | $10,000 | $15,464 | 121 | 64% | - | +$5,464 | -9.7% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 24 |
NFLX
|
38 | 2🧊 | +53.94% | $10,000 | $15,394 | 158 | 56% | - | +$5,394 | -19.6% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 25 |
AAPL
|
40 | 42 | +53.64% | $10,000 | $15,364 | 145 | 63% | - | +$5,364 | -20.3% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 26 |
VTI
|
51 | 22🧊 | +51.79% | $10,000 | $15,179 | 121 | 63% | - | +$5,179 | -10.5% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 27 |
BRK-B
|
49 | 27🧊 | +50.91% | $10,000 | $15,091 | 131 | 56% | - | +$5,091 | -10.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 28 |
C
|
37 | 75🔥 | +49.44% | $10,000 | $14,944 | 167 | 59% | - | +$4,944 | -21.2% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 29 |
RBLX
|
34 | 44 | +48.64% | $10,000 | $14,864 | 220 | 63% | - | +$4,864 | -34.9% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 30 |
XOM
|
42 | 5🧊 | +47.35% | $10,000 | $14,735 | 152 | 64% | - | +$4,735 | -13.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 31 |
IWM
|
40 | 17🧊 | +45.69% | $10,000 | $14,569 | 140 | 56% | - | +$4,569 | -11.9% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 32 |
ORCL
|
30 | 25 | +45.39% | $10,000 | $14,539 | 201 | 57% | - | +$4,539 | -37.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 33 |
GILD
|
36 | 13🧊 | +43.02% | $10,000 | $14,302 | 150 | 60% | - | +$4,302 | -16.0% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 34 |
JPM
|
35 | 5🧊 | +42.47% | $10,000 | $14,247 | 148 | 60% | - | +$4,247 | -21.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 35 |
OXY
|
33 | 5🧊 | +41.14% | $10,000 | $14,114 | 170 | 61% | - | +$4,114 | -31.5% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 36 |
WFC
|
37 | 54 | +41.12% | $10,000 | $14,112 | 162 | 62% | - | +$4,112 | -17.9% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 37 |
JNJ
|
45 | 10🧊 | +41.10% | $10,000 | $14,110 | 127 | 61% | - | +$4,110 | -9.8% | 4.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 38 |
DIA
|
43 | 37 | +40.69% | $10,000 | $14,069 | 117 | 63% | - | +$4,069 | -13.6% | 5.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 39 |
AMD
|
28 | 77🔥 | +40.47% | $10,000 | $14,047 | 225 | 60% | - | +$4,047 | -52.6% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 40 |
XLF
|
36 | 34 | +39.35% | $10,000 | $13,935 | 119 | 58% | - | +$3,935 | -17.8% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 41 |
IBM
|
40 | 9🧊 | +38.82% | $10,000 | $13,882 | 162 | 62% | - | +$3,882 | -11.2% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 42 |
PM
|
35 | 3🧊 | +38.82% | $10,000 | $13,882 | 145 | 60% | - | +$3,882 | -19.7% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 43 |
META
|
30 | 9🧊 | +37.02% | $10,000 | $13,702 | 170 | 57% | - | +$3,702 | -36.9% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 44 |
TSLA
|
29 | 21 | +35.30% | $10,000 | $13,530 | 238 | 60% | - | +$3,530 | -37.6% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 45 |
SLV
|
33 | 24 | +34.49% | $10,000 | $13,449 | 176 | 56% | - | +$3,449 | -18.7% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 46 |
BLK
|
32 | 13 | +32.07% | $10,000 | $13,207 | 151 | 56% | - | +$3,207 | -17.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 47 |
V
|
35 | 2🧊 | +31.73% | $10,000 | $13,173 | 136 | 54% | - | +$3,173 | -11.9% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 48 |
KO
|
32 | 2🧊 | +30.54% | $10,000 | $13,054 | 124 | 58% | - | +$3,054 | -18.7% | 4.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 49 |
MA
|
34 | 2🧊 | +29.82% | $10,000 | $12,982 | 138 | 59% | - | +$2,982 | -12.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 50 |
XLK
|
29 | 31 | +26.08% | $10,000 | $12,608 | 145 | 61% | - | +$2,608 | -30.8% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 51 |
GME
|
27 | 19 | +25.09% | $10,000 | $12,509 | 220 | 60% | - | +$2,509 | -32.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 52 |
COST
|
29 | 3🧊 | +22.84% | $10,000 | $12,284 | 134 | 51% | - | +$2,284 | -17.4% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 53 |
SCHW
|
28 | 36 | +22.03% | $10,000 | $12,203 | 145 | 61% | - | +$2,203 | -16.1% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 54 |
LLY
|
24 | 25 | +19.60% | $10,000 | $11,960 | 181 | 56% | - | +$1,960 | -33.4% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 55 |
AMGN
|
26 | 19 | +17.18% | $10,000 | $11,718 | 147 | 56% | - | +$1,718 | -20.8% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 56 |
MSFT
|
25 | 5🧊 | +15.39% | $10,000 | $11,539 | 143 | 55% | - | +$1,539 | -19.1% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 57 |
USO
|
26 | 6 | +15.29% | $10,000 | $11,529 | 166 | 60% | - | +$1,529 | -29.6% | 3.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 58 |
COP
|
25 | 3🧊 | +14.30% | $10,000 | $11,430 | 167 | 57% | - | +$1,430 | -20.4% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 59 |
VRTX
|
25 | 33 | +14.12% | $10,000 | $11,412 | 149 | 58% | - | +$1,412 | -21.3% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 60 |
AMZN
|
24 | 5 | +13.90% | $10,000 | $11,390 | 171 | 58% | - | +$1,390 | -27.2% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 61 |
QQQ
|
25 | 19 | +13.58% | $10,000 | $11,358 | 130 | 58% | - | +$1,358 | -24.0% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 62 |
HOOD
|
22 | 47🔥 | +10.59% | $10,000 | $11,059 | 261 | 59% | - | +$1,059 | -32.1% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 63 |
PG
|
22 | 55🔥 | +9.72% | $10,000 | $10,972 | 126 | 54% | - | +$972 | -19.3% | 4.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 64 |
PEP
|
20 | 7 | +6.49% | $10,000 | $10,649 | 131 | 53% | - | +$649 | -16.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 65 |
SPXU
|
19 | 13 | +5.16% | $10,000 | $10,516 | 119 | 59% | - | +$516 | -29.5% | 2.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 66 |
VZ
|
19 | 2 | +5.00% | $10,000 | $10,500 | 131 | 57% | - | +$500 | -15.3% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 67 |
UVXY
|
17 | 64🔥 | +4.25% | $10,000 | $10,425 | 283 | 58% | - | +$425 | -48.5% | 22.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 68 |
CRWD
|
18 | 9 | +3.26% | $10,000 | $10,326 | 224 | 60% | - | +$326 | -37.8% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 69 |
ABBV
|
11 | 6 | +0.13% | $10,000 | $10,013 | 145 | 56% | - | +$13 | -25.0% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 70 |
MCD
|
9 | 2 | -0.96% | $10,000 | $9,904 | 121 | 50% | - | -$96 | -15.2% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 71 |
HD
|
9 | 3 | -4.49% | $10,000 | $9,551 | 142 | 51% | - | -$449 | -18.6% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 72 |
SLB
|
10 | 6 | -6.65% | $10,000 | $9,335 | 175 | 56% | - | -$665 | -24.3% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 73 |
BIIB
|
11 | 39🔥 | -6.95% | $10,000 | $9,305 | 164 | 54% | - | -$695 | -32.7% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 74 |
ISRG
|
11 | 5 | -8.71% | $10,000 | $9,129 | 153 | 49% | - | -$871 | -39.2% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 75 |
TLT
|
10 | 27 | -9.25% | $10,000 | $9,075 | 111 | 51% | - | -$925 | -15.8% | 5.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 76 |
BMY
|
10 | 3 | -9.26% | $10,000 | $9,074 | 162 | 56% | - | -$926 | -39.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 77 |
DKNG
|
12 | 54🔥 | -12.09% | $10,000 | $8,791 | 222 | 56% | - | -$1,209 | -46.7% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 78 |
MRK
|
11 | 2 | -13.53% | $10,000 | $8,647 | 153 | 57% | - | -$1,353 | -29.6% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 79 |
SMCI
|
12 | 12 | -14.39% | $10,000 | $8,561 | 284 | 57% | - | -$1,439 | -63.9% | 22.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 80 |
MDT
|
7 | 3 | -15.15% | $10,000 | $8,485 | 132 | 49% | - | -$1,515 | -15.1% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 81 |
PYPL
|
11 | 22 | -17.13% | $10,000 | $8,287 | 168 | 56% | - | -$1,713 | -52.5% | 2.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 82 |
TMO
|
10 | 13 | -17.60% | $10,000 | $8,240 | 155 | 54% | - | -$1,760 | -23.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 83 |
DIS
|
8 | 2 | -18.50% | $10,000 | $8,150 | 139 | 49% | - | -$1,850 | -25.4% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 84 |
PFE
|
9 | 3 | -21.58% | $10,000 | $7,842 | 141 | 52% | - | -$2,158 | -30.4% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 85 |
ARKK
|
11 | 6 | -22.86% | $10,000 | $7,714 | 188 | 61% | - | -$2,286 | -23.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 86 |
UNH
|
10 | 12 | -23.85% | $10,000 | $7,615 | 160 | 56% | - | -$2,385 | -41.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 87 |
SOFI
|
10 | 14 | -25.30% | $10,000 | $7,470 | 247 | 56% | - | -$2,530 | -43.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 88 |
MARA
|
11 | 39🔥 | -28.30% | $10,000 | $7,170 | 318 | 57% | - | -$2,830 | -40.2% | 16.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 89 |
REGN
|
11 | 6 | -29.05% | $10,000 | $7,095 | 166 | 55% | - | -$2,905 | -42.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 90 |
VXX
|
10 | 9 | -29.21% | $10,000 | $7,079 | 234 | 56% | - | -$2,921 | -57.1% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 91 |
NIO
|
9 | 20 | -32.42% | $10,000 | $6,758 | 240 | 56% | - | -$3,242 | -39.7% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 92 |
TQQQ
|
12 | 33🔥 | -33.08% | $10,000 | $6,692 | 240 | 56% | - | -$3,308 | -41.0% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 93 |
ACN
|
8 | 5 | -36.15% | $10,000 | $6,385 | 155 | 51% | - | -$3,615 | -41.3% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 94 |
CRM
|
10 | 9 | -41.23% | $10,000 | $5,877 | 172 | 56% | - | -$4,123 | -46.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 95 |
ADBE
|
8 | 7 | -42.21% | $10,000 | $5,779 | 160 | 50% | - | -$4,221 | -40.9% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 96 |
SQQQ
|
9 | 14 | -47.08% | $10,000 | $5,292 | 245 | 56% | - | -$4,708 | -53.7% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 97 |
RIOT
|
11 | 17 | -47.19% | $10,000 | $5,281 | 312 | 60% | - | -$4,719 | -55.6% | 17.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 98 |
RIVN
|
10 | 50🔥 | -50.53% | $10,000 | $4,947 | 270 | 58% | - | -$5,053 | -60.0% | 1.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 99 |
AMC
|
9 | 50🔥 | -51.85% | $10,000 | $4,815 | 218 | 54% | - | -$5,185 | -57.1% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 100 |
CMCSA
|
6 | 3 | -53.00% | $10,000 | $4,700 | 142 | 47% | - | -$5,300 | -47.7% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 101 |
COIN
|
9 | 13 | -63.25% | $10,000 | $3,675 | 284 | 55% | - | -$6,325 | -67.1% | 23.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 102 |
LCID
|
8 | 11 | -76.40% | $10,000 | $2,360 | 271 | 55% | - | -$7,640 | -69.8% | 23.6h | ✓ | - |
👤 Personality
Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.