11
Rebel Contraire
The Rebel
⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."
Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.
ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.
📊 Year to Date Performance: Showing Rebel Contraire's performance over the year to date across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE
$12,451
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at:
$12,206
(+$244)
+2.00%
Year to Date ROI
56.4%
Win Rate
3,280
Total Trades
Quick Performance Comparison
Click any period to view detailed stats
Equity Curve (Year to Date)
Combined P&L across all 102 symbols
⚙️ Trading Strategy
Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal
After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.
🎯 Best Suited For
Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades
"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."
📜 Why This Strategy Works
Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.
Mathematical Formula
CODE VERIFIED —
These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php
📊 Entry Signal
📈 Entry Signal
3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price
📉 Exit Conditions
• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days
⚙️ Simulation Parameters
CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS:
3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT:
-3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
5
📖 Historical Origin
Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"
Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.
🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)
📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Year to Date)
📊 All Symbol Results
Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve
📅 Year to Date:
Jan 1, 2026
→
May 6, 2026
(124 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite
60+ Good
40+ Fair
<40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot
60+ Active
40+ Moderate
<40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance.
Full methodology →
| Rank | Symbol | Score | Mom | Return | YTD Start | Final Value | Trades | Win Rate | Fees | Net | Max DD | Avg Hold | Refunds | Last Refund | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
INTC
|
32 | 71🔥 | +58.71% | $9,744 | $15,465 | 46 | 70% | - | +$5,721 | -45.8% | 1.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 2 |
USO
|
35 | 54 | +58.46% | $9,067 | $14,368 | 38 | 76% | - | +$5,301 | -29.6% | 3.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 3 |
VXX
|
10 | 42🔥 | +57.71% | $5,153 | $8,126 | 48 | 71% | - | +$2,974 | -57.1% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 4 |
OXY
|
38 | 35 | +50.29% | $10,797 | $16,228 | 36 | 78% | - | +$5,430 | -31.5% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 5 |
XLE
|
63 | 25🧊 | +47.01% | $13,384 | $19,676 | 27 | 89% | - | +$6,292 | -12.9% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 6 |
GME
|
28 | 58🔥 | +35.10% | $8,839 | $11,942 | 34 | 74% | - | +$3,103 | -32.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 7 |
ARM
|
36 | 61🔥 | +32.73% | $12,578 | $16,694 | 46 | 63% | - | +$4,117 | -36.8% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 8 |
COP
|
31 | 76🔥 | +32.57% | $9,569 | $12,686 | 33 | 73% | - | +$3,117 | -20.4% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 9 |
CVX
|
71 | 25🧊 | +28.45% | $16,701 | $21,453 | 27 | 78% | - | +$4,752 | -12.9% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 10 |
AMD
|
21 | 89🔥 | +27.05% | $9,099 | $11,560 | 43 | 70% | - | +$2,461 | -52.6% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 11 |
SPXU
|
21 | 9 | +26.74% | $8,569 | $10,861 | 37 | 65% | - | +$2,291 | -29.5% | 2.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 12 |
IBM
|
53 | 59 | +26.67% | $13,206 | $16,728 | 29 | 69% | - | +$3,522 | -11.2% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 13 |
SLB
|
18 | 71🔥 | +24.67% | $8,455 | $10,541 | 34 | 68% | - | +$2,086 | -24.3% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 14 |
XOM
|
51 | 48 | +24.11% | $13,627 | $16,912 | 28 | 75% | - | +$3,285 | -13.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 15 |
MRNA
|
41 | 14🧊 | +18.93% | $17,266 | $20,534 | 47 | 62% | - | +$3,268 | -42.5% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 16 |
SMCI
|
12 | 47🔥 | +18.27% | $7,068 | $8,359 | 46 | 61% | - | +$1,291 | -63.9% | 22.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 17 |
AMZN
|
30 | 76🔥 | +18.18% | $11,018 | $13,021 | 33 | 70% | - | +$2,003 | -27.2% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 18 |
NET
|
35 | 47 | +15.83% | $13,061 | $15,129 | 45 | 62% | - | +$2,068 | -29.4% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 19 |
NFLX
|
48 | 28 | +15.19% | $15,397 | $17,736 | 29 | 62% | - | +$2,339 | -19.6% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 20 |
GLD
|
68 | 34🧊 | +14.68% | $17,215 | $19,742 | 29 | 62% | - | +$2,527 | -11.3% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 21 |
XLK
|
25 | 76🔥 | +14.35% | $10,428 | $11,924 | 26 | 69% | - | +$1,496 | -30.8% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 22 |
WMT
|
56 | 33🧊 | +14.28% | $15,833 | $18,094 | 26 | 69% | - | +$2,261 | -14.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 23 |
KO
|
32 | 49 | +13.14% | $11,595 | $13,119 | 21 | 76% | - | +$1,524 | -18.7% | 4.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 24 |
CSCO
|
67 | 47🧊 | +11.86% | $17,235 | $19,280 | 24 | 54% | - | +$2,044 | -9.7% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 25 |
GOOGL
|
56 | 72 | +11.62% | $22,289 | $24,879 | 27 | 59% | - | +$2,590 | -25.1% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 26 |
AXP
|
58 | 64 | +11.28% | $17,276 | $19,224 | 26 | 62% | - | +$1,949 | -13.8% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 27 |
UVXY
|
10 | 48🔥 | +10.98% | $8,381 | $9,301 | 54 | 63% | - | +$920 | -48.5% | 22.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 28 |
BAC
|
38 | 63🔥 | +10.71% | $13,341 | $14,770 | 27 | 63% | - | +$1,429 | -19.8% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 29 |
JNJ
|
46 | 3🧊 | +10.02% | $12,867 | $14,157 | 23 | 52% | - | +$1,289 | -9.8% | 4.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 30 |
PANW
|
44 | 49 | +9.51% | $15,192 | $16,636 | 40 | 70% | - | +$1,445 | -18.6% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 31 |
SNOW
|
32 | 14 | +8.25% | $13,192 | $14,281 | 44 | 64% | - | +$1,088 | -41.0% | 2.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 32 |
COST
|
32 | 23 | +7.43% | $11,987 | $12,878 | 23 | 65% | - | +$891 | -17.4% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 33 |
PG
|
18 | 26 | +6.93% | $9,783 | $10,461 | 23 | 52% | - | +$678 | -19.3% | 4.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 34 |
AAPL
|
36 | 53 | +6.81% | $13,260 | $14,163 | 22 | 64% | - | +$903 | -20.3% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 35 |
PFE
|
9 | 3 | +5.81% | $8,067 | $8,535 | 22 | 64% | - | +$469 | -30.4% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 36 |
RIVN
|
10 | 30 | +5.73% | $4,728 | $4,999 | 47 | 60% | - | +$271 | -60.0% | 1.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 37 |
RIOT
|
11 | 42🔥 | +5.25% | $5,151 | $5,421 | 52 | 62% | - | +$270 | -55.6% | 17.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 38 |
NVDA
|
45 | 63 | +4.92% | $20,915 | $21,944 | 31 | 58% | - | +$1,029 | -35.3% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 39 |
PEP
|
20 | 15 | +4.37% | $10,206 | $10,653 | 24 | 63% | - | +$446 | -16.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 40 |
VZ
|
22 | 5 | +3.87% | $10,447 | $10,851 | 24 | 58% | - | +$404 | -15.3% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 41 |
IWM
|
38 | 53 | +3.23% | $13,558 | $13,995 | 23 | 57% | - | +$438 | -11.9% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 42 |
SPY
|
52 | 56 | +2.99% | $14,470 | $14,903 | 20 | 60% | - | +$433 | -9.7% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 43 |
QQQ
|
20 | 61🔥 | +2.96% | $10,157 | $10,458 | 22 | 50% | - | +$301 | -24.0% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 44 |
VOO
|
54 | 57 | +2.95% | $14,897 | $15,337 | 20 | 55% | - | +$439 | -9.6% | 4.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 45 |
JPM
|
34 | 38 | +2.75% | $13,653 | $14,028 | 25 | 64% | - | +$375 | -21.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 46 |
BLK
|
32 | 27 | +2.07% | $12,847 | $13,113 | 28 | 50% | - | +$266 | -17.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 47 |
C
|
31 | 55🔥 | +1.76% | $12,897 | $13,124 | 31 | 61% | - | +$227 | -21.2% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 48 |
VTI
|
48 | 54 | +1.47% | $14,350 | $14,561 | 20 | 55% | - | +$211 | -10.5% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 49 |
BMY
|
10 | 2 | +0.56% | $9,182 | $9,234 | 24 | 54% | - | +$51 | -39.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 50 |
SOXL
|
42 | 28 | +0.44% | $20,037 | $20,125 | 53 | 57% | - | +$88 | -33.0% | 20.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 51 |
V
|
37 | 62🔥 | +0.18% | $13,231 | $13,255 | 23 | 48% | - | +$24 | -11.9% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 52 |
DIA
|
39 | 44 | +0.15% | $13,306 | $13,326 | 20 | 45% | - | +$20 | -13.6% | 5.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 53 |
GILD
|
37 | 6🧊 | +0.04% | $14,732 | $14,737 | 26 | 58% | - | +$6 | -16.0% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 54 |
AMGN
|
23 | 11 | -0.06% | $11,217 | $11,210 | 26 | 50% | - | -$7 | -20.8% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 55 |
XLF
|
35 | 25 | -0.17% | $13,443 | $13,420 | 22 | 55% | - | -$23 | -17.8% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 56 |
MCD
|
19 | 2 | -0.20% | $10,776 | $10,754 | 20 | 45% | - | -$22 | -15.2% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 57 |
PM
|
34 | 56🔥 | -0.59% | $13,768 | $13,686 | 29 | 62% | - | -$81 | -19.7% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 58 |
META
|
33 | 20 | -0.68% | $15,112 | $15,009 | 27 | 56% | - | -$103 | -36.9% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 59 |
PLTR
|
46 | 61 | -1.58% | $19,749 | $19,437 | 46 | 57% | - | -$312 | -26.0% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 60 |
AVGO
|
42 | 48 | -1.71% | $18,447 | $18,131 | 37 | 57% | - | -$315 | -21.1% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 61 |
BRK-B
|
42 | 10🧊 | -3.82% | $14,621 | $14,063 | 21 | 43% | - | -$559 | -10.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 62 |
TLT
|
10 | 2 | -3.92% | $9,184 | $8,824 | 18 | 44% | - | -$360 | -15.8% | 5.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 63 |
WFC
|
34 | 10🧊 | -4.01% | $13,996 | $13,435 | 28 | 57% | - | -$561 | -17.9% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 64 |
PYPL
|
11 | 68🔥 | -5.49% | $8,814 | $8,330 | 33 | 58% | - | -$484 | -52.5% | 2.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 65 |
SQQQ
|
10 | 9 | -6.01% | $6,884 | $6,471 | 44 | 57% | - | -$414 | -53.7% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 66 |
SCHW
|
25 | 3🧊 | -6.16% | $12,293 | $11,536 | 27 | 56% | - | -$757 | -16.1% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 67 |
MS
|
41 | 66🔥 | -6.32% | $17,120 | $16,038 | 29 | 52% | - | -$1,082 | -18.0% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 68 |
COIN
|
9 | 26 | -6.39% | $4,185 | $3,918 | 47 | 55% | - | -$267 | -67.1% | 23.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 69 |
MA
|
38 | 18 | -6.43% | $14,692 | $13,747 | 25 | 48% | - | -$945 | -12.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 70 |
VRTX
|
19 | 2 | -7.13% | $11,544 | $10,721 | 26 | 46% | - | -$823 | -21.3% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 71 |
ORCL
|
31 | 22 | -7.54% | $16,303 | $15,074 | 39 | 51% | - | -$1,229 | -37.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 72 |
CRM
|
11 | 27 | -7.83% | $7,112 | $6,555 | 34 | 59% | - | -$557 | -46.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 73 |
ACN
|
8 | 24 | -8.22% | $7,415 | $6,805 | 31 | 55% | - | -$610 | -41.3% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 74 |
BIIB
|
10 | 33🔥 | -8.36% | $9,205 | $8,436 | 30 | 50% | - | -$770 | -32.7% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 75 |
TMO
|
11 | 5 | -8.48% | $9,667 | $8,847 | 29 | 52% | - | -$820 | -23.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 76 |
NIO
|
9 | 53🔥 | -8.75% | $7,899 | $7,208 | 40 | 55% | - | -$691 | -39.7% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 77 |
MSFT
|
29 | 64🔥 | -10.04% | $13,850 | $12,460 | 27 | 56% | - | -$1,391 | -19.1% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 78 |
AMC
|
9 | 13 | -10.76% | $4,796 | $4,280 | 38 | 50% | - | -$516 | -57.1% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 79 |
DKNG
|
12 | 50🔥 | -11.14% | $9,249 | $8,219 | 41 | 54% | - | -$1,030 | -46.7% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 80 |
MRK
|
12 | 9 | -11.14% | $10,209 | $9,072 | 28 | 54% | - | -$1,137 | -29.6% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 81 |
GS
|
58 | 13🧊 | -11.44% | $21,993 | $19,477 | 30 | 47% | - | -$2,516 | -13.2% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 82 |
ADBE
|
9 | 53🔥 | -11.60% | $7,564 | $6,686 | 31 | 55% | - | -$877 | -40.9% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 83 |
REGN
|
11 | 6 | -12.22% | $9,057 | $7,950 | 26 | 46% | - | -$1,107 | -42.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 84 |
DIS
|
8 | 2 | -12.46% | $9,822 | $8,598 | 23 | 39% | - | -$1,224 | -25.4% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 85 |
LLY
|
22 | 6 | -12.57% | $13,195 | $11,536 | 33 | 42% | - | -$1,659 | -33.4% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 86 |
MU
|
39 | 42 | -13.74% | $21,092 | $18,194 | 48 | 54% | - | -$2,898 | -32.2% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 87 |
TSLA
|
27 | 52🔥 | -13.83% | $14,751 | $12,711 | 34 | 50% | - | -$2,040 | -37.6% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 88 |
UNH
|
10 | 64🔥 | -14.30% | $8,758 | $7,506 | 24 | 46% | - | -$1,252 | -41.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 89 |
HD
|
16 | 5 | -14.56% | $12,195 | $10,419 | 26 | 31% | - | -$1,776 | -18.6% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 90 |
MDT
|
8 | 3 | -15.46% | $10,550 | $8,919 | 24 | 29% | - | -$1,631 | -15.1% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 91 |
CMCSA
|
6 | 2 | -16.79% | $6,463 | $5,378 | 23 | 39% | - | -$1,085 | -47.7% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 92 |
ISRG
|
17 | 5 | -16.82% | $12,375 | $10,294 | 27 | 37% | - | -$2,082 | -39.2% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 93 |
LCID
|
9 | 15 | -19.37% | $3,937 | $3,175 | 47 | 53% | - | -$763 | -69.8% | 23.6h | ✓ | - | |
| 94 |
ABBV
|
13 | 3 | -24.00% | $13,257 | $10,075 | 27 | 41% | - | -$3,182 | -25.0% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 95 |
CRWD
|
13 | 27 | -24.76% | $12,448 | $9,366 | 38 | 47% | - | -$3,082 | -37.8% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 96 |
SLV
|
30 | 7🧊 | -25.55% | $16,907 | $12,587 | 43 | 47% | - | -$4,320 | -18.7% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 97 |
HOOD
|
11 | 32🔥 | -27.73% | $13,034 | $9,420 | 43 | 44% | - | -$3,614 | -32.1% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 98 |
ARKK
|
11 | 9 | -31.87% | $11,530 | $7,855 | 32 | 41% | - | -$3,675 | -23.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 99 |
SOFI
|
10 | 15 | -33.58% | $11,841 | $7,865 | 42 | 45% | - | -$3,976 | -43.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 100 |
MARA
|
11 | 11 | -37.15% | $10,549 | $6,630 | 55 | 45% | - | -$3,919 | -40.2% | 16.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 101 |
TQQQ
|
11 | 25 | -41.32% | $9,756 | $5,725 | 40 | 38% | - | -$4,031 | -41.0% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 102 |
RBLX
|
32 | 13 | -41.85% | $23,119 | $13,444 | 46 | 48% | - | -$9,675 | -34.9% | 1.9d | ✓ | - |
👤 Personality
Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.