Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:37:21

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

33
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.3/35
Total Return
11.0/25
Win Rate
9.7/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 34.9/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 33.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-0.4%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,014.65
Current Value
$11,990.87
Period P&L
$-23.78
Max Drawdown
-11.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+3.45%
Worst Trade
-2.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
18.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$117,911.58
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-23.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$-23.78
Gross Return
-0.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.20%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $12,014.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $180.55 66 $11,916.30
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $180.12 66 $11,887.92 $12,014.65 $-28.38
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:00am ET $181.18 66 $11,957.88
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $179.12 66 $11,821.92 $11,878.69 $-135.96
(-1.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $186.01 63 $11,718.63
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET $185.89 63 $11,711.07 $11,871.13 $-7.56
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:15am ET $184.49 64 $11,807.36
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $180.13 64 $11,528.00 $11,591.77 $-279.36
(-2.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $178.18 65 $11,581.70
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $184.32 65 $11,980.80 $11,990.87 +$399.10
(+3.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,990.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,990.87
Total Return: +19.91%
Back to Anchor