LLY Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 36 trades in period
+2.04%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,082.89
Current Value
42%
Win Rate
$8,900.94
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
7.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
12.3/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 12.3
30-Day Momentum
10
-2.8%
30d Return
42%
Win Rate
12
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.6
Conf: 0.93×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,900.94
Current Value
$9,082.89
Period P&L
$181.95
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
15 /
21
Best Trade
+5.99%
Worst Trade
-1.67%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$594,371.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$181.95
Net P&L (after fees)
$181.95
Gross Return
+2.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.04%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $8,900.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $1,108.78 | 7 | $7,761.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,126.99 | 7 | $7,888.93 | $8,933.35 |
+$127.47 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $1,182.89 | 7 | $8,280.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,234.47 | 7 | $8,641.32 | $9,294.41 |
+$361.06 (+4.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,212.05 | 7 | $8,484.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,192.53 | 7 | $8,347.71 | $9,157.76 |
$-136.65 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,189.14 | 7 | $8,323.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,176.49 | 7 | $8,235.43 | $9,069.24 |
$-88.52 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,202.36 | 7 | $8,416.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,184.53 | 7 | $8,291.71 | $8,944.43 |
$-124.81 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1,230.67 | 7 | $8,614.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,221.09 | 7 | $8,547.66 | $8,877.40 |
$-67.03 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,214.56 | 7 | $8,501.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 12:00pm ET | $1,201.15 | 7 | $8,408.05 | $8,783.54 |
$-93.86 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,184.36 | 7 | $8,290.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,174.39 | 7 | $8,220.73 | $8,713.72 |
$-69.82 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,152.25 | 7 | $8,065.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,140.21 | 7 | $7,981.47 | $8,629.43 |
$-84.28 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,145.76 | 7 | $8,020.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,170.87 | 7 | $8,196.09 | $8,805.20 |
+$175.77 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,171.65 | 7 | $8,201.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,158.67 | 7 | $8,110.69 | $8,714.34 |
$-90.86 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,163.02 | 7 | $8,141.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,161.84 | 7 | $8,132.88 | $8,706.08 |
$-8.26 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1,200.69 | 7 | $8,404.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,194.41 | 7 | $8,360.86 | $8,662.11 |
$-43.97 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET | $1,221.17 | 7 | $8,548.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,213.94 | 7 | $8,497.55 | $8,611.50 |
$-50.61 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,180.99 | 7 | $8,266.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,166.05 | 7 | $8,162.32 | $8,506.85 |
$-104.65 (-1.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,122.91 | 7 | $7,860.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,149.01 | 7 | $8,043.07 | $8,689.55 |
+$182.70 (+2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,111.44 | 7 | $7,780.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.99 | 7 | $8,245.93 | $9,155.40 |
+$465.85 (+6.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,176.22 | 7 | $8,233.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,187.57 | 7 | $8,312.99 | $9,234.81 |
+$79.41 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,225.03 | 7 | $8,575.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,211.05 | 7 | $8,477.35 | $9,136.92 |
$-97.89 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,218.93 | 7 | $8,532.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,230.47 | 7 | $8,613.29 | $9,217.70 |
+$80.78 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
17.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,194.50 | 7 | $8,361.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,182.53 | 7 | $8,277.68 | $9,133.88 |
$-83.82 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,174.57 | 7 | $8,222.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,196.70 | 7 | $8,376.90 | $9,288.76 |
+$154.88 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 11:10am ET | $1,271.00 | 7 | $8,897.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,277.49 | 7 | $8,942.43 | $9,334.19 |
+$45.43 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,234.50 | 7 | $8,641.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,235.73 | 7 | $8,650.14 | $9,342.83 |
+$8.64 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,253.35 | 7 | $8,773.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,239.85 | 7 | $8,678.93 | $9,248.32 |
$-94.52 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1,193.43 | 7 | $8,354.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,183.53 | 7 | $8,284.71 | $9,179.02 |
$-69.30 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,173.85 | 7 | $8,216.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,157.50 | 7 | $8,102.50 | $9,064.58 |
$-114.44 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 11:45am ET | $1,168.69 | 7 | $8,180.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,172.00 | 7 | $8,204.00 | $9,087.78 |
+$23.20 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,173.85 | 7 | $8,216.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,154.23 | 7 | $8,079.64 | $8,950.48 |
$-137.30 (-1.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1,142.85 | 7 | $7,999.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,130.47 | 7 | $7,913.29 | $8,863.82 |
$-86.66 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 12:10pm ET | $1,126.31 | 7 | $7,884.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,133.64 | 7 | $7,935.48 | $8,915.12 |
+$51.30 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,120.30 | 7 | $7,842.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,142.43 | 7 | $7,997.01 | $9,070.01 |
+$154.89 (+2.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,141.44 | 7 | $7,990.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,138.23 | 7 | $7,967.64 | $9,047.58 |
$-22.43 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $1,144.00 | 7 | $8,008.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,154.98 | 7 | $8,084.86 | $9,124.44 |
+$76.86 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.5h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,144.00 | 7 | $8,008.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,150.10 | 7 | $8,050.70 | $9,167.14 |
+$42.70 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,163.81 | 7 | $8,146.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 12:45pm ET | $1,151.77 | 7 | $8,062.39 | $9,082.89 |
$-84.25 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,082.89
Net Profit/Loss:
$-917.11
Total Return:
-9.17%