MSFT Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 37 trades in period
-5.47%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,285.66
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$8,764.74
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
6.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
10.3/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 10.2
30-Day Momentum
16
+0.6%
30d Return
45%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.1
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,764.74
Current Value
$8,285.66
Period P&L
$-479.08
Max Drawdown
-9.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
10 /
27
Best Trade
+3.69%
Worst Trade
-1.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
20.9h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$615,742.85
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-479.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$-479.08
Gross Return
-5.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.47%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $8,764.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $373.00 | 23 | $8,579.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $371.55 | 23 | $8,545.76 | $8,667.00 |
$-33.24 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.7h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $362.57 | 23 | $8,339.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET | $358.70 | 23 | $8,250.10 | $8,578.02 |
$-88.98 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:25pm ET | $367.98 | 23 | $8,463.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.28 | 23 | $8,700.44 | $8,814.92 |
+$236.90 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $369.02 | 23 | $8,487.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $376.84 | 23 | $8,667.32 | $8,994.66 |
+$179.75 (+2.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $386.11 | 23 | $8,880.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $382.20 | 23 | $8,790.60 | $8,904.62 |
$-90.04 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 1:35pm ET | $392.82 | 22 | $8,642.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:50pm ET | $388.89 | 22 | $8,555.58 | $8,818.16 |
$-86.46 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.20 | 23 | $8,606.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $387.99 | 23 | $8,923.77 | $9,135.33 |
+$317.17 (+3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $384.57 | 23 | $8,845.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.02 | 23 | $8,763.57 | $9,053.79 |
$-81.54 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $396.15 | 22 | $8,715.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.99 | 22 | $8,711.89 | $9,050.49 |
$-3.30 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $395.61 | 22 | $8,703.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 10:40am ET | $391.55 | 22 | $8,613.99 | $8,961.17 |
$-89.32 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $400.11 | 22 | $8,802.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $399.41 | 22 | $8,786.93 | $8,945.57 |
$-15.60 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $394.60 | 22 | $8,681.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:15am ET | $390.33 | 22 | $8,587.37 | $8,851.74 |
$-93.83 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $383.30 | 23 | $8,815.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $379.25 | 23 | $8,722.75 | $8,758.59 |
$-93.15 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $383.95 | 22 | $8,446.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.35 | 22 | $8,565.59 | $8,877.28 |
+$118.69 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $397.45 | 22 | $8,743.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 3:20pm ET | $393.00 | 22 | $8,646.00 | $8,779.38 |
$-97.90 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:20pm ET | $396.43 | 22 | $8,721.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $392.45 | 22 | $8,633.79 | $8,691.60 |
$-87.78 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $454.82 | 19 | $8,641.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $450.00 | 19 | $8,550.00 | $8,600.02 |
$-91.58 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $482.68 | 17 | $8,205.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $481.45 | 17 | $8,184.65 | $8,579.11 |
$-20.91 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $493.01 | 17 | $8,381.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $487.72 | 17 | $8,291.24 | $8,489.18 |
$-89.93 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $494.77 | 17 | $8,411.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.08 | 17 | $8,501.36 | $8,579.36 |
+$90.18 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $508.67 | 16 | $8,138.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $504.02 | 16 | $8,064.32 | $8,504.96 |
$-74.40 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.45 | 16 | $8,007.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $493.38 | 16 | $7,894.00 | $8,391.84 |
$-113.12 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $497.01 | 16 | $7,952.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $496.09 | 16 | $7,937.44 | $8,377.20 |
$-14.64 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $491.54 | 17 | $8,356.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $486.19 | 17 | $8,265.23 | $8,286.25 |
$-90.95 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 11:50am ET | $480.95 | 17 | $8,176.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $480.55 | 17 | $8,169.27 | $8,279.45 |
$-6.80 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $482.96 | 17 | $8,210.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $480.30 | 17 | $8,165.14 | $8,234.27 |
$-45.18 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:00pm ET | $487.94 | 16 | $7,807.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $484.74 | 16 | $7,755.84 | $8,183.07 |
$-51.20 (-0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $487.94 | 16 | $7,807.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.00 | 16 | $7,920.00 | $8,296.03 |
+$112.96 (+1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 1:45pm ET | $515.64 | 16 | $8,250.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $510.55 | 16 | $8,168.80 | $8,214.59 |
$-81.44 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $498.98 | 16 | $7,983.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $497.29 | 16 | $7,956.56 | $8,187.47 |
$-27.12 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:45pm ET | $512.03 | 15 | $7,680.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $510.05 | 15 | $7,650.68 | $8,157.69 |
$-29.78 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $493.04 | 16 | $7,888.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $492.59 | 16 | $7,881.44 | $8,150.57 |
$-7.12 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $488.09 | 16 | $7,809.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.58 | 16 | $7,929.28 | $8,270.38 |
+$119.81 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $507.73 | 16 | $8,123.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $500.61 | 16 | $8,009.76 | $8,156.46 |
$-113.92 (-1.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $492.79 | 16 | $7,884.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $496.83 | 16 | $7,949.20 | $8,221.02 |
+$64.56 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $494.96 | 16 | $7,919.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $495.59 | 16 | $7,929.44 | $8,231.02 |
+$10.00 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $498.15 | 16 | $7,970.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $501.57 | 16 | $8,025.04 | $8,285.66 |
+$54.64 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,285.66
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,714.34
Total Return:
-17.14%