RIVN Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 40 trades in period
+5.13%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,719.61
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$6,391.40
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
9
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
5.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
9.0/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 9.0
30-Day Momentum
20
+1.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.9
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,391.40
Current Value
$6,719.61
Period P&L
$328.19
Max Drawdown
-39.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
17 /
23
Best Trade
+5.15%
Worst Trade
-9.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
17.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$505,078.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$328.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$328.19
Gross Return
+5.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.13%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $6,391.40 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $15.02 | 425 | $6,385.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $14.81 | 425 | $6,292.72 | $6,298.50 |
$-92.90 (-1.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $14.45 | 435 | $6,285.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.79 | 435 | $6,433.21 | $6,445.96 |
+$147.46 (+2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:30pm ET | $17.15 | 375 | $6,431.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.19 | 375 | $6,446.25 | $6,460.97 |
+$15.00 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $18.80 | 343 | $6,446.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:55pm ET | $18.58 | 343 | $6,371.23 | $6,385.51 |
$-75.46 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:40pm ET | $19.65 | 324 | $6,366.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.76 | 324 | $5,754.50 | $5,773.38 |
$-612.13 (-9.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.65 | 369 | $5,773.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.45 | 369 | $6,070.05 | $6,070.43 |
+$297.05 (+5.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $18.37 | 330 | $6,063.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 1:00pm ET | $18.16 | 330 | $5,991.15 | $5,998.32 |
$-72.11 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $17.20 | 348 | $5,985.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.48 | 348 | $6,081.30 | $6,093.99 |
+$95.67 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $18.22 | 334 | $6,083.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $18.00 | 334 | $6,013.20 | $6,023.38 |
$-70.61 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.93 | 355 | $6,009.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:45pm ET | $16.73 | 355 | $5,937.38 | $5,950.78 |
$-72.60 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $17.33 | 343 | $5,945.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.83 | 343 | $6,115.69 | $6,120.57 |
+$169.79 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 12:40pm ET | $17.63 | 347 | $6,115.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.85 | 347 | $6,193.95 | $6,198.65 |
+$78.08 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.76 | 369 | $6,184.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $16.49 | 369 | $6,084.81 | $6,099.02 |
$-99.63 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $15.90 | 383 | $6,091.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.74 | 383 | $6,030.33 | $6,037.74 |
$-61.28 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:20pm ET | $16.63 | 363 | $6,034.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.16 | 363 | $5,866.08 | $5,868.94 |
$-168.80 (-2.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.36 | 358 | $5,858.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.20 | 358 | $5,799.60 | $5,809.87 |
$-59.07 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 12:10pm ET | $16.32 | 356 | $5,808.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.04 | 356 | $6,066.24 | $6,067.97 |
+$258.10 (+4.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.23 | 398 | $6,063.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.63 | 398 | $6,220.74 | $6,225.18 |
+$157.21 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.58 | 399 | $6,216.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.40 | 399 | $6,144.60 | $6,153.36 |
$-71.82 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $15.64 | 393 | $6,146.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.47 | 393 | $6,079.71 | $6,086.63 |
$-66.73 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 2:20pm ET | $16.05 | 379 | $6,081.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.13 | 379 | $6,113.27 | $6,118.84 |
+$32.21 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $15.98 | 382 | $6,106.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.53 | 382 | $6,314.46 | $6,327.03 |
+$208.19 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.89 | 398 | $6,322.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.81 | 398 | $6,292.38 | $6,296.50 |
$-30.53 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.26 | 412 | $6,286.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.91 | 412 | $6,144.98 | $6,154.73 |
$-141.77 (-2.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.42 | 426 | $6,142.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.97 | 426 | $6,377.22 | $6,389.07 |
+$234.34 (+3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:15am ET | $15.61 | 409 | $6,385.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.21 | 409 | $6,629.89 | $6,633.57 |
+$244.50 (+3.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.88 | 392 | $6,616.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $16.70 | 392 | $6,548.36 | $6,564.97 |
$-68.60 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 2:25pm ET | $16.80 | 390 | $6,550.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.64 | 390 | $6,489.60 | $6,504.52 |
$-60.45 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.62 | 391 | $6,500.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.54 | 391 | $6,467.14 | $6,471.44 |
$-33.08 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.17 | 400 | $6,470.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $16.00 | 400 | $6,398.40 | $6,399.84 |
$-71.60 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:30pm ET | $15.48 | 413 | $6,391.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.71 | 413 | $6,488.23 | $6,496.90 |
+$97.05 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
19h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $15.81 | 410 | $6,482.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.81 | 410 | $6,482.51 | $6,496.70 |
$-0.20 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.65 | 415 | $6,494.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.15 | 415 | $6,702.25 | $6,704.20 |
+$207.50 (+3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.72 | 426 | $6,696.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.25 | 426 | $6,922.50 | $6,929.98 |
+$225.78 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.90 | 435 | $6,916.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.71 | 435 | $6,833.85 | $6,847.33 |
$-82.65 (-1.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.52 | 441 | $6,844.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.27 | 441 | $6,734.07 | $6,737.08 |
$-110.25 (-1.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $15.84 | 425 | $6,729.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $15.66 | 425 | $6,657.62 | $6,664.83 |
$-72.25 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 2:10pm ET | $15.02 | 443 | $6,651.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.19 | 443 | $6,731.38 | $6,744.57 |
+$79.74 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.38 | 438 | $6,736.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:25am ET | $15.23 | 438 | $6,668.55 | $6,676.86 |
$-67.71 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
50m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $14.82 | 450 | $6,671.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.92 | 450 | $6,714.00 | $6,719.61 |
+$42.75 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,719.61
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,280.39
Total Return:
-32.80%