TLT Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 33 trades in period
-2.90%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,469.95
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$10,782.13
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
24
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.0/35
Total Return
6.9/25
Win Rate
5.7/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
23.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 23.7
30-Day Momentum
12
+0.3%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 13.8
Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,782.13
Current Value
$10,469.95
Period P&L
$-312.19
Max Drawdown
-3.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
33
Winners / Losers
12 /
21
Best Trade
+1.90%
Worst Trade
-1.91%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$692,679.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-312.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-312.19
Gross Return
-2.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.90%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 33 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $10,782.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:45pm ET | $87.36 | 123 | $10,744.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.58 | 123 | $10,772.34 | $10,809.80 |
+$27.67 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 124 | $10,792.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.39 | 124 | $10,836.98 | $10,853.82 |
+$44.02 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.13 | 124 | $10,804.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.47 | 124 | $10,598.28 | $10,647.98 |
$-205.84 (-1.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.47 | 124 | $10,598.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.44 | 124 | $10,594.56 | $10,643.64 |
$-4.34 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.11 | 125 | $10,638.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.32 | 125 | $10,539.38 | $10,544.27 |
$-99.37 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.28 | 125 | $10,534.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.49 | 125 | $10,561.25 | $10,571.14 |
+$26.87 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.24 | 125 | $10,529.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.09 | 125 | $10,510.99 | $10,552.75 |
$-18.39 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $84.22 | 125 | $10,527.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.81 | 125 | $10,475.63 | $10,500.88 |
$-51.88 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $84.68 | 124 | $10,500.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.32 | 124 | $10,455.68 | $10,456.24 |
$-44.64 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.64 | 125 | $10,454.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.61 | 125 | $10,451.25 | $10,453.11 |
$-3.13 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.05 | 125 | $10,381.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.29 | 125 | $10,411.87 | $10,483.75 |
+$30.64 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $83.57 | 125 | $10,445.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.87 | 125 | $10,483.75 | $10,521.87 |
+$38.13 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.09 | 125 | $10,511.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:05pm ET | $83.18 | 125 | $10,397.50 | $10,408.13 |
$-113.75 (-1.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.44 | 126 | $10,388.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.23 | 126 | $10,360.98 | $10,381.04 |
$-27.09 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $82.68 | 125 | $10,335.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.94 | 125 | $10,368.12 | $10,413.54 |
+$32.50 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.82 | 125 | $10,351.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.80 | 125 | $10,350.00 | $10,411.67 |
$-1.87 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.42 | 126 | $10,384.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.26 | 126 | $10,365.39 | $10,392.14 |
$-19.53 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $82.25 | 126 | $10,363.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.58 | 126 | $10,405.08 | $10,433.81 |
+$41.67 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.23 | 126 | $10,360.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.76 | 126 | $10,301.76 | $10,374.59 |
$-59.22 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.26 | 127 | $10,320.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.81 | 127 | $10,516.24 | $10,570.80 |
+$196.21 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.36 | 128 | $10,541.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.17 | 128 | $10,517.12 | $10,546.16 |
$-24.64 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $82.62 | 127 | $10,492.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.06 | 127 | $10,548.62 | $10,602.05 |
+$55.89 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $83.21 | 127 | $10,567.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.20 | 127 | $10,566.40 | $10,601.41 |
$-0.64 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.04 | 127 | $10,546.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.38 | 127 | $10,462.26 | $10,517.59 |
$-83.82 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.00 | 128 | $10,496.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.90 | 128 | $10,483.84 | $10,504.79 |
$-12.80 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:40pm ET | $82.31 | 127 | $10,452.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.29 | 127 | $10,450.83 | $10,502.89 |
$-1.90 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 11:20am ET | $82.21 | 127 | $10,440.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.19 | 127 | $10,438.13 | $10,500.35 |
$-2.54 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.00 | 129 | $10,449.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.31 | 129 | $10,488.99 | $10,540.34 |
+$39.99 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.81 | 130 | $10,505.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.63 | 130 | $10,481.90 | $10,516.94 |
$-23.40 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:20pm ET | $81.05 | 129 | $10,455.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.54 | 129 | $10,518.66 | $10,580.14 |
+$63.20 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.2h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.46 | 129 | $10,508.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.72 | 129 | $10,541.88 | $10,613.58 |
+$33.44 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $81.76 | 129 | $10,547.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.48 | 129 | $10,510.92 | $10,576.82 |
$-36.76 (-0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $80.34 | 131 | $10,523.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:15pm ET | $79.52 | 131 | $10,417.11 | $10,469.95 |
$-106.87 (-1.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,469.95
Net Profit/Loss:
+$469.95
Total Return:
+4.70%