TLT Anchor's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 32 trades in period
+5.44%
Last 3 Months Return
$10,782.13
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$10,225.37
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.6/35
Total Return
7.9/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
2.8/15
Consistency
5.6/10
Raw Quality
30.1/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 29.6
30-Day Momentum
51
+4.3%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
9
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 60.5
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)
Market Closed (3 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$10,225.37
Current Value
$10,782.13
Period P&L
$556.76
Max Drawdown
-3.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.32
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
19 /
13
Best Trade
+1.33%
Worst Trade
-0.81%
Avg Trade Return
+0.17%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$660,713.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$556.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$556.76
Gross Return
+5.44%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.44%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Anchor had $10,225.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $86.35 | 118 | $10,188.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 118 | $10,112.01 | $10,148.67 |
$-76.70 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $86.74 | 117 | $10,148.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.33 | 117 | $10,100.61 | $10,100.70 |
$-47.97 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
20.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.48 | 118 | $10,086.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.62 | 118 | $10,221.16 | $10,235.22 |
+$134.52 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $86.64 | 118 | $10,224.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.28 | 118 | $10,181.04 | $10,192.15 |
$-43.07 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.21 | 118 | $10,172.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.51 | 118 | $10,208.18 | $10,228.14 |
+$35.99 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.54 | 118 | $10,211.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.25 | 118 | $10,295.50 | $10,311.92 |
+$83.78 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.69 | 118 | $10,229.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.63 | 118 | $10,222.10 | $10,304.60 |
$-7.32 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.43 | 119 | $10,285.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.71 | 119 | $10,318.49 | $10,337.92 |
+$33.32 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.03 | 118 | $10,268.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.90 | 118 | $10,254.20 | $10,323.17 |
$-14.75 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $87.03 | 118 | $10,269.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.10 | 118 | $10,277.80 | $10,331.43 |
+$8.26 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
2.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.97 | 118 | $10,262.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.03 | 118 | $10,269.54 | $10,338.51 |
+$7.08 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:45am ET | $86.86 | 119 | $10,335.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.46 | 119 | $10,288.15 | $10,290.91 |
$-47.60 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.49 | 118 | $10,205.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.11 | 118 | $10,160.98 | $10,246.66 |
$-44.25 (-0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.98 | 119 | $10,231.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.89 | 119 | $10,220.32 | $10,235.35 |
$-11.31 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.48 | 119 | $10,172.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.35 | 119 | $10,156.65 | $10,219.32 |
$-16.03 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $85.36 | 119 | $10,158.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.04 | 119 | $10,238.17 | $10,299.07 |
+$79.75 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
18.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $86.11 | 119 | $10,247.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.05 | 119 | $10,239.95 | $10,291.93 |
$-7.14 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.89 | 119 | $10,220.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.19 | 119 | $10,137.61 | $10,208.63 |
$-83.30 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.94 | 120 | $10,192.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.26 | 120 | $10,231.20 | $10,247.03 |
+$38.40 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.86 | 122 | $10,230.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.71 | 122 | $10,213.23 | $10,229.34 |
$-17.69 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.97 | 123 | $10,205.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.07 | 123 | $10,217.00 | $10,241.03 |
+$11.69 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.62 | 122 | $10,201.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.60 | 122 | $10,321.20 | $10,360.59 |
+$119.56 (+1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 11:05am ET | $85.13 | 121 | $10,300.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.26 | 121 | $10,316.46 | $10,376.32 |
+$15.73 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $85.28 | 121 | $10,318.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.82 | 121 | $10,383.62 | $10,440.97 |
+$64.65 (+0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.92 | 122 | $10,360.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.80 | 122 | $10,467.60 | $10,548.09 |
+$107.12 (+1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.29 | 123 | $10,490.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.61 | 123 | $10,530.64 | $10,588.06 |
+$39.97 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.04 | 124 | $10,545.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.23 | 124 | $10,568.52 | $10,611.53 |
+$23.47 (+0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $84.86 | 125 | $10,606.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.13 | 125 | $10,641.25 | $10,645.90 |
+$34.37 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $85.23 | 124 | $10,568.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.63 | 124 | $10,618.12 | $10,695.50 |
+$49.60 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
21.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $85.90 | 124 | $10,652.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.96 | 124 | $10,659.66 | $10,702.94 |
+$7.44 (+0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.28 | 124 | $10,698.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.09 | 124 | $10,799.16 | $10,803.38 |
+$100.44 (+0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23.8h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.29 | 125 | $10,786.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.12 | 125 | $10,765.00 | $10,782.13 |
$-21.25 (-0.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,782.13
Net Profit/Loss:
+$782.13
Total Return:
+7.82%