LLY Band Snapper's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 42 trades in period
+15.33%
Year to Date Return
$20,827.91
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$18,058.81
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
45
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.7/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality
44.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 44.5
30-Day Momentum
3
-7.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-41 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,410
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$18,058.81
Current Value
$20,827.91
Period P&L
$2,769.14
Max Drawdown
-29.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
20 /
22
Best Trade
+9.10%
Worst Trade
-6.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.43%
Avg Hold Time
5.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,537,364.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,769.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,769.14
Gross Return
+15.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.33%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Band Snapper had $18,058.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 2:50pm ET | $1,072.78 | 16 | $17,164.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,041.44 | 16 | $16,663.04 | $17,520.23 |
$-501.44 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:30pm ET | $1,097.61 | 15 | $16,464.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,073.81 | 15 | $16,107.15 | $17,163.23 |
$-357.00 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1,046.18 | 16 | $16,738.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,063.07 | 16 | $17,009.12 | $17,433.47 |
+$270.24 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,019.00 | 17 | $17,323.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,090.07 | 17 | $18,531.19 | $18,641.65 |
+$1,208.19 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,048.31 | 17 | $17,821.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,105.51 | 17 | $18,793.67 | $19,614.05 |
+$972.40 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,044.18 | 18 | $18,795.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,020.16 | 18 | $18,362.88 | $19,181.69 |
$-432.36 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8.3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,015.99 | 18 | $18,287.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1,051.71 | 18 | $18,930.78 | $19,824.65 |
+$642.96 (+3.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.3d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,009.57 | 19 | $19,181.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $987.00 | 19 | $18,753.00 | $19,395.82 |
$-428.83 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,002.04 | 19 | $19,038.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $992.85 | 19 | $18,864.24 | $19,221.31 |
$-174.51 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $974.24 | 19 | $18,510.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $913.33 | 19 | $17,353.27 | $18,064.02 |
$-1,157.29 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 2:20pm ET | $917.90 | 19 | $17,440.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $901.10 | 19 | $17,120.91 | $17,744.92 |
$-319.10 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:05pm ET | $913.68 | 19 | $17,359.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $888.03 | 19 | $16,872.48 | $17,257.48 |
$-487.44 (-2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $940.00 | 18 | $16,920.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $922.00 | 18 | $16,596.00 | $16,933.48 |
$-324.00 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:30pm ET | $954.71 | 17 | $16,230.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $928.71 | 17 | $15,788.07 | $16,491.48 |
$-442.00 (-2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $926.08 | 17 | $15,743.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $925.46 | 17 | $15,732.85 | $16,481.05 |
$-10.43 (-0.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $912.08 | 18 | $16,417.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $873.68 | 18 | $15,726.24 | $15,789.85 |
$-691.20 (-4.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $871.39 | 18 | $15,685.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $917.00 | 18 | $16,506.00 | $16,610.83 |
+$820.98 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $962.50 | 17 | $16,362.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $989.17 | 17 | $16,815.89 | $17,064.22 |
+$453.39 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $971.22 | 17 | $16,510.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $993.02 | 17 | $16,881.26 | $17,434.74 |
+$370.52 (+2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,015.06 | 17 | $17,256.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $991.83 | 17 | $16,861.03 | $17,039.75 |
$-394.99 (-2.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,010.67 | 16 | $16,170.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,066.84 | 16 | $17,069.44 | $17,938.47 |
+$898.72 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,061.11 | 16 | $16,977.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,114.23 | 16 | $17,827.68 | $18,788.39 |
+$849.92 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,113.19 | 16 | $17,811.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,071.96 | 16 | $17,151.36 | $18,128.71 |
$-659.68 (-3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1,132.93 | 16 | $18,126.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1,151.22 | 16 | $18,419.60 | $18,421.51 |
+$292.80 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,134.98 | 16 | $18,159.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,143.64 | 16 | $18,298.16 | $18,559.96 |
+$138.45 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,113.86 | 16 | $17,821.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,103.02 | 16 | $17,648.32 | $18,386.52 |
$-173.44 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,102.11 | 16 | $17,633.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,158.57 | 16 | $18,537.20 | $19,289.96 |
+$903.44 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $1,102.11 | 16 | $17,633.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,202.36 | 16 | $19,237.76 | $20,893.96 |
+$1,604.00 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,231.01 | 16 | $19,696.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,174.39 | 16 | $18,790.24 | $19,988.04 |
$-905.92 (-4.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,152.25 | 17 | $19,588.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,174.54 | 17 | $19,967.10 | $20,366.89 |
+$378.85 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,148.86 | 17 | $19,530.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,194.41 | 17 | $20,304.94 | $21,141.20 |
+$774.32 (+4.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 12:15pm ET | $1,231.01 | 16 | $19,696.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,180.99 | 16 | $18,895.92 | $20,340.96 |
$-800.24 (-4.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
22.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,145.00 | 17 | $19,465.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.99 | 17 | $20,025.83 | $20,901.79 |
+$560.83 (+2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,162.92 | 17 | $19,769.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 2:30pm ET | $1,221.20 | 17 | $20,760.40 | $21,892.63 |
+$990.84 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,217.55 | 17 | $20,698.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,177.98 | 17 | $20,025.66 | $21,219.94 |
$-672.69 (-3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,212.41 | 17 | $20,610.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,283.53 | 17 | $21,820.01 | $22,428.98 |
+$1,209.04 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,266.00 | 17 | $21,522.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,253.18 | 17 | $21,303.98 | $22,210.96 |
$-218.02 (-1.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,202.00 | 18 | $21,635.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,151.23 | 18 | $20,722.23 | $21,297.23 |
$-913.73 (-4.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,202.00 | 18 | $21,635.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $1,154.23 | 18 | $20,776.23 | $20,437.50 |
$-859.73 (-4.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,142.84 | 17 | $19,428.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,121.14 | 17 | $19,059.38 | $20,068.60 |
$-368.90 (-1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $1,124.86 | 17 | $19,122.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:25pm ET | $1,137.80 | 17 | $19,342.60 | $20,288.50 |
+$219.90 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,134.87 | 17 | $19,292.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,166.60 | 17 | $19,832.20 | $20,827.91 |
+$539.41 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,827.91
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,827.91
Total Return:
+108.28%