XLK Band Snapper's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+14.97%
Year to Date Return
$19,677.71
Current Value
49%
Win Rate
$17,115.82
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
58
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
24.0/35
Total Return
16.5/25
Win Rate
7.9/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
58.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 57.9
30-Day Momentum
3
-1.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-55 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,080
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$17,115.82
Current Value
$19,677.71
Period P&L
$2,561.94
Max Drawdown
-14.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
20 /
21
Best Trade
+7.13%
Worst Trade
-6.45%
Avg Trade Return
+0.37%
Avg Hold Time
6.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,534,135.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,561.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,561.94
Gross Return
+14.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Band Snapper had $17,115.82 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 3:10pm ET | $146.63 | 118 | $17,302.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $144.65 | 118 | $17,068.70 | $17,195.59 |
$-233.64 (-1.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $146.39 | 117 | $17,127.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:55pm ET | $144.69 | 117 | $16,928.73 | $16,996.69 |
$-198.90 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $145.61 | 116 | $16,890.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $146.10 | 116 | $16,947.60 | $17,053.53 |
+$56.84 (+0.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
10d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $148.09 | 115 | $17,030.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $142.04 | 115 | $16,334.60 | $16,357.78 |
$-695.75 (-4.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $136.82 | 119 | $16,281.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $143.68 | 119 | $17,097.92 | $17,174.11 |
+$816.34 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $143.06 | 120 | $17,167.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $140.92 | 120 | $16,910.40 | $16,917.31 |
$-256.80 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $140.32 | 120 | $16,838.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 3:55pm ET | $138.74 | 120 | $16,648.80 | $16,727.71 |
$-189.60 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
7.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.09 | 122 | $16,603.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.07 | 122 | $16,600.54 | $16,725.15 |
$-2.56 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $140.37 | 119 | $16,704.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $138.70 | 119 | $16,504.71 | $16,525.83 |
$-199.32 (-1.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $139.22 | 118 | $16,427.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.13 | 118 | $16,180.75 | $16,278.62 |
$-247.21 (-1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.05 | 119 | $16,189.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.06 | 119 | $15,596.14 | $15,684.81 |
$-593.81 (-3.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:50pm ET | $135.53 | 115 | $15,585.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $136.26 | 115 | $15,669.90 | $15,768.76 |
+$83.95 (+0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $135.98 | 115 | $15,637.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.16 | 115 | $16,463.97 | $16,595.61 |
+$826.85 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $140.90 | 117 | $16,485.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:10am ET | $146.45 | 117 | $17,134.07 | $17,244.38 |
+$648.77 (+3.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:40pm ET | $148.76 | 115 | $17,106.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $153.84 | 115 | $17,691.60 | $17,829.15 |
+$584.77 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:05pm ET | $154.75 | 115 | $17,796.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $160.04 | 115 | $18,405.17 | $18,438.07 |
+$608.92 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.02 | 117 | $18,371.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.67 | 117 | $19,032.39 | $19,099.12 |
+$661.05 (+3.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $165.70 | 115 | $19,055.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 11:35am ET | $173.99 | 115 | $20,008.85 | $20,052.83 |
+$953.71 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $177.47 | 112 | $19,876.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.43 | 112 | $19,872.16 | $20,048.35 |
$-4.48 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $171.89 | 116 | $19,939.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $180.50 | 116 | $20,938.00 | $21,047.11 |
+$998.76 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $184.56 | 114 | $21,039.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $193.81 | 114 | $22,094.34 | $22,101.61 |
+$1,054.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:35pm ET | $196.82 | 112 | $22,043.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $184.84 | 112 | $20,702.08 | $20,759.85 |
$-1,341.76 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $185.04 | 112 | $20,724.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $173.11 | 112 | $19,388.32 | $19,423.69 |
$-1,336.16 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $177.30 | 109 | $19,325.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.95 | 109 | $20,704.55 | $20,802.54 |
+$1,378.85 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.00 | 108 | $20,628.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.06 | 108 | $20,850.48 | $21,025.02 |
+$222.48 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.39 | 114 | $21,020.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.42 | 114 | $20,909.88 | $20,914.44 |
$-110.58 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.39 | 114 | $21,020.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.30 | 114 | $20,782.20 | $20,676.18 |
$-238.26 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
13d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.13 | 114 | $20,534.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.98 | 114 | $20,859.15 | $21,001.08 |
+$324.90 (+1.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:00pm ET | $183.64 | 114 | $20,934.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $171.91 | 114 | $19,597.74 | $19,663.99 |
$-1,337.09 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $176.53 | 111 | $19,594.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.32 | 111 | $19,681.97 | $19,751.12 |
+$87.14 (+0.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.13 | 114 | $20,534.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.59 | 114 | $19,675.03 | $18,891.90 |
$-859.22 (-4.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
23d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $174.05 | 108 | $18,797.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $183.48 | 108 | $19,815.84 | $19,910.34 |
+$1,018.44 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $186.66 | 106 | $19,785.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $188.00 | 106 | $19,928.00 | $20,052.38 |
+$142.04 (+0.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $185.91 | 107 | $19,892.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.98 | 107 | $20,434.86 | $20,594.87 |
+$542.49 (+2.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.53 | 110 | $20,518.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.45 | 110 | $19,849.50 | $19,926.07 |
$-668.80 (-3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.53 | 110 | $20,518.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.21 | 110 | $19,933.10 | $19,340.87 |
$-585.20 (-2.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 2:30pm ET | $187.25 | 103 | $19,286.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:30pm ET | $183.15 | 103 | $18,864.45 | $18,918.57 |
$-422.30 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 2:30pm ET | $187.25 | 103 | $19,286.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:40am ET | $185.49 | 103 | $19,105.47 | $18,737.29 |
$-181.28 (-0.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
6.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $186.66 | 100 | $18,666.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 2:05pm ET | $188.06 | 100 | $18,806.00 | $18,877.29 |
+$140.00 (+0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $185.36 | 101 | $18,721.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:05pm ET | $183.90 | 101 | $18,573.90 | $18,729.83 |
$-147.46 (-0.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $184.68 | 101 | $18,652.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $194.06 | 101 | $19,600.06 | $19,677.71 |
+$947.88 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,677.71
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,677.71
Total Return:
+96.78%