Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:05:49

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 58%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.5/35
Total Return
5.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 10.5/100
× Confidence 0.58 = 6.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (58%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,106
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$13,131.29
Current Value
$10,370.27
Period P&L
$-2,761.02
Max Drawdown
-27.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.43

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
2 / 7
Best Trade
+10.67%
Worst Trade
-6.31%
Avg Trade Return
-2.43%
Avg Hold Time
15.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$196,689.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,761.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,761.02
Gross Return
-21.03%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.03%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Bruno Breakout had $13,131.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 6, 2025 9:30am ET $90.54 145 $13,128.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $84.83 145 $12,300.35 $12,303.34 $-827.95
(-6.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET $88.50 139 $12,301.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 22, 2025 1:35pm ET $83.93 139 $11,666.27 $11,668.11 $-635.23
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $83.24 140 $11,653.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $78.91 140 $11,047.40 $11,062.33 $-605.78
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $76.78 144 $11,056.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET $72.72 144 $10,471.68 $10,477.69 $-584.64
(-5.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 9:30am ET $80.40 130 $10,452.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET $76.31 130 $9,920.30 $9,945.99 $-531.70
(-5.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
42.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $68.74 144 $9,898.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.32 144 $10,413.36 $10,461.08 +$515.09
(+5.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.3d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 143 $10,427.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $69.13 143 $9,885.59 $9,918.94 $-542.14
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 134 $9,853.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:30am ET $81.38 134 $10,904.25 $10,970.17 +$1,051.23
(+10.7%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $78.25 140 $10,955.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $73.96 140 $10,355.10 $10,370.27 $-599.90
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
32d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,370.27
Net Profit/Loss: +$370.27
Total Return: +3.70%
Back to Bruno Breakout