Compendium › Bruno Breakout › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Bruno Breakout's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 19 trades executed

-5.00%
2 Years Return
$10,735.84
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$11,300.56
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:43:59

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

10
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
7.7/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 13.5/100
× Confidence 0.72 = 9.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
50,209
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,300.56
Current Value
$10,735.84
Total P&L
$-564.72
Max Drawdown
-19.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
4 / 9
Best Trade
+15.36%
Worst Trade
-6.72%
Avg Trade Return
-0.10%
Avg Hold Time
18.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$283,572.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-564.72
Net P&L (after fees)
$-564.72
Gross Return
-5.00%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Bruno Breakout had $11,300.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2024 9:30am ET $781.68 14 $10,943.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET $789.75 14 $11,056.44 $11,413.44 +$112.88
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
45d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET $754.40 15 $11,316.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:45pm ET $714.02 15 $10,710.30 $10,807.72 $-605.72
(-5.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2025 9:30am ET $823.92 13 $10,710.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2025 1:30pm ET $782.49 13 $10,172.31 $10,269.13 $-538.59
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET $790.00 12 $9,479.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2025 1:55pm ET $750.49 12 $9,005.88 $9,795.07 $-474.06
(-5.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
38.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2025 9:30am ET $723.22 13 $9,401.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 1, 2025 2:05pm ET $832.15 13 $10,817.95 $11,211.11 +$1,416.04
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
36.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $956.27 11 $10,518.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 12:10pm ET $1,103.10 11 $12,134.10 $12,826.30 +$1,615.19
(+15.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,090.07 11 $11,990.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:45am ET $1,033.63 11 $11,369.96 $12,205.49 $-620.81
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,105.51 11 $12,160.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $1,049.47 11 $11,544.19 $11,589.07 $-616.42
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $1,047.06 11 $11,517.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $991.00 11 $10,901.01 $10,972.42 $-616.65
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $899.30 12 $10,791.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 10:40am ET $1,036.58 12 $12,439.02 $12,619.84 +$1,647.42
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,151.72 10 $11,517.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:50am ET $1,092.02 10 $10,920.20 $12,022.84 $-597.00
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $1,235.27 9 $11,117.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,152.25 9 $10,370.25 $11,275.66 $-747.18
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,177.99 9 $10,601.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:30am ET $1,118.01 9 $10,062.09 $10,735.84 $-539.82
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
34.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,735.84
Net Profit/Loss: +$735.84
Total Return: +7.36%
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