PEPEUSD Bruno Breakout's Analysis
2024-01-01 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 22:45:00+00 • 107 trades executed
-12.80%
2 Years Return
$8,257.01
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$9,369.23
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 0.94
= 3.7
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
208,557
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
725 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to API rate limits during data collection or exchange maintenance. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2024-10-08 (60 candles)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,369.23
Current Value
$8,257.01
Total P&L
$-1,199.29
Max Drawdown
-57.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
36
Winners / Losers
10 /
26
Best Trade
+19.10%
Worst Trade
-7.18%
Avg Trade Return
+0.56%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$704,571.60
Estimated Fees
$1,761.43
Gross P&L
$-1,199.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,960.72
Gross Return
-12.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.60%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 725 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Bruno Breakout had $9,369.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2024 8:20am ET | $0.00000855 | 1,095,816,374 | $9,369.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 27, 2024 1:55am ET | $0.00000986 | 1,095,816,374 | $10,804.75 | $10,754.31 |
+$1,385.08 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 27, 2024 2:05am ET | $0.00001033 | 1,041,075,508 | $10,754.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 28, 2024 10:20pm ET | $0.00001191 | 1,041,075,508 | $12,399.21 | $12,341.33 |
+$1,587.02 (+15.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2024 8:10am ET | $0.00001088 | 1,134,313,419 | $12,341.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2024 7:15am ET | $0.00001029 | 1,134,313,419 | $11,672.09 | $11,612.05 |
$-729.28 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2024 8:00pm ET | $0.00001027 | 1,130,676,728 | $11,612.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2024 11:20am ET | $0.00000973 | 1,130,676,728 | $11,001.48 | $10,944.95 |
$-667.10 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 28, 2024 5:35pm ET | $0.00000930 | 1,176,876,344 | $10,944.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 1, 2024 5:20pm ET | $0.00000881 | 1,176,876,344 | $10,368.28 | $10,315.00 |
$-629.95 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2024 8:25pm ET | $0.00001072 | 962,220,149 | $10,315.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2024 1:40am ET | $0.00001015 | 962,220,149 | $9,766.53 | $9,716.33 |
$-598.67 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2024 8:20am ET | $0.00001487 | 653,418,292 | $9,716.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 8:55am ET | $0.00001771 | 653,418,292 | $11,572.04 | $11,518.82 |
+$1,802.49 (+19.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
36m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2024 1:00pm ET | $0.00002060 | 559,166,019 | $11,518.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 2:05pm ET | $0.00001954 | 559,166,019 | $10,926.10 | $10,869.99 |
$-648.83 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2024 6:35pm ET | $0.00002133 | 509,610,408 | $10,869.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 8:50pm ET | $0.00002478 | 509,610,408 | $12,628.15 | $12,569.40 |
+$1,699.41 (+16.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 12:50am ET | $0.00002453 | 512,409,295 | $12,569.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 1:10am ET | $0.00002315 | 512,409,295 | $11,862.28 | $11,801.20 |
$-768.20 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2024 9:20am ET | $0.00002257 | 522,871,068 | $11,801.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2024 9:40am ET | $0.00002095 | 522,871,068 | $10,954.15 | $10,897.26 |
$-903.94 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 5:15am ET | $0.00002201 | 495,104,952 | $10,897.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 15, 2024 9:25am ET | $0.00002090 | 495,104,952 | $10,347.69 | $10,294.58 |
$-602.68 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2024 7:15am ET | $0.00002019 | 509,885,092 | $10,294.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2024 10:05am ET | $0.00001918 | 509,885,092 | $9,779.60 | $9,729.41 |
$-565.17 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2024 10:25am ET | $0.00002275 | 427,666,374 | $9,729.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2024 10:40pm ET | $0.00002152 | 427,666,374 | $9,203.38 | $9,156.05 |
$-573.36 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2024 7:25pm ET | $0.00002710 | 337,861,624 | $9,156.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 8:15pm ET | $0.00002565 | 337,861,624 | $8,666.15 | $8,621.60 |
$-534.45 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2024 1:05am ET | $0.00001840 | 468,565,217 | $8,621.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2024 8:20am ET | $0.00002132 | 468,565,217 | $9,989.81 | $9,943.28 |
+$1,321.68 (+15.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2025 8:30am ET | $0.00001773 | 560,816,695 | $9,943.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 17, 2025 3:30pm ET | $0.00002040 | 560,816,695 | $11,440.66 | $11,387.20 |
+$1,443.92 (+15.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 5:00pm ET | $0.00001136 | 1,002,394,366 | $11,387.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 8:30pm ET | $0.00001079 | 1,002,394,366 | $10,815.84 | $10,760.33 |
$-626.87 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2025 10:30pm ET | $0.00000964 | 1,116,216,805 | $10,760.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2025 11:30am ET | $0.00000910 | 1,116,216,805 | $10,157.57 | $10,105.28 |
$-655.05 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.5d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:35am ET | $0.00000712 | 1,419,280,899 | $10,105.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00000676 | 1,419,280,899 | $9,594.34 | $9,545.09 |
$-560.19 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
24m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 5:15am ET | $0.00000647 | 1,475,284,389 | $9,545.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $0.00000612 | 1,475,284,389 | $9,028.74 | $8,982.31 |
$-562.78 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 11:30am ET | $0.00000781 | 1,150,103,713 | $8,982.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 5:10pm ET | $0.00000737 | 1,150,103,713 | $8,476.26 | $8,432.62 |
$-549.69 (-5.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $0.00000641 | 1,315,541,342 | $8,432.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 1:05pm ET | $0.00000606 | 1,315,541,342 | $7,972.18 | $7,931.17 |
$-501.45 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2025 1:20pm ET | $0.00000674 | 1,176,731,454 | $7,931.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2025 8:30pm ET | $0.00000778 | 1,176,731,454 | $9,154.97 | $9,112.26 |
+$1,181.09 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 5:45pm ET | $0.00000885 | 1,029,633,898 | $9,112.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2025 4:35am ET | $0.00000839 | 1,029,633,898 | $8,638.63 | $8,594.25 |
$-518.01 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 25, 2025 9:20pm ET | $0.00000950 | 904,657,895 | $8,594.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 26, 2025 9:20pm ET | $0.00000899 | 904,657,895 | $8,132.87 | $8,091.06 |
$-503.19 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 4:50pm ET | $0.00001139 | 710,365,233 | $8,091.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 11:55pm ET | $0.00001071 | 710,365,233 | $7,608.01 | $7,568.76 |
$-522.30 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 9, 2025 4:20am ET | $0.00001264 | 598,794,304 | $7,568.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2025 10:15pm ET | $0.00001466 | 598,794,304 | $8,778.32 | $8,737.46 |
+$1,168.70 (+16.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2025 8:30am ET | $0.00001311 | 666,472,921 | $8,737.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 5:55pm ET | $0.00001232 | 666,472,921 | $8,210.95 | $8,168.58 |
$-568.88 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2025 3:50pm ET | $0.00001097 | 744,628,988 | $8,168.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 10:35pm ET | $0.00001266 | 744,628,988 | $9,427.00 | $9,383.01 |
+$1,214.43 (+15.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2025 8:30am ET | $0.00001153 | 813,790,980 | $9,383.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2025 5:25pm ET | $0.00001093 | 813,790,980 | $8,894.74 | $8,849.04 |
$-533.97 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2025 10:00am ET | $0.00001034 | 855,806,576 | $8,849.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 4:10pm ET | $0.00000977 | 855,806,576 | $8,361.23 | $8,318.20 |
$-530.84 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000556 | 1,496,079,137 | $8,318.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2026 10:10pm ET | $0.00000652 | 1,496,079,137 | $9,754.44 | $9,709.25 |
+$1,391.05 (+17.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 5:05pm ET | $0.00000635 | 1,529,015,748 | $9,709.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 10:35pm ET | $0.00000603 | 1,529,015,748 | $9,219.96 | $9,172.64 |
$-536.61 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 9:20am ET | $0.00000292 | 3,141,315,068 | $9,172.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:30pm ET | $0.00000277 | 3,141,315,068 | $8,701.44 | $8,701.44 |
$-515.88 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000372 | 2,339,096,774 | $8,701.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:00am ET | $0.00000353 | 2,339,096,774 | $8,257.01 | $8,257.01 |
$-486.82 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,257.01
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,742.99
Total Return:
-17.43%