Compendium › Crash Catcher › AMZN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMZN
Alpaca Tradeable

Crash Catcher's Analysis

2024-01-02 00:00:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 5 trades executed

+57.12%
2 Years Return
$20,893.82
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$13,298.14
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:30:41

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 22, 2026

75
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
93.4/35
Total Return
52.8/25
Win Rate
99.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
99.8/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 74.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
75,890
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$13,298.14
Current Value
$20,893.82
Total P&L
$7,595.69
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
21.72

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+16.75%
Worst Trade
+15.13%
Avg Trade Return
+15.73%
Avg Hold Time
245.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$100,679.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,595.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,595.69
Gross Return
+57.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+57.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crash Catcher had $13,298.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jul 11, 2024 11:20am ET $194.23 69 $13,401.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 6, 2024 9:45am ET $223.62 69 $15,429.89 $15,549.02 +$2,028.19
(+15.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
148d held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2024 3:25pm ET $224.08 69 $15,461.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET $258.36 69 $17,827.12 $17,914.62 +$2,365.60
(+15.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
319.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 11:20am ET $243.70 73 $17,790.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET $284.51 73 $20,769.30 $20,893.82 +$2,979.20
(+16.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
269.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,893.82
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,893.82
Total Return: +108.94%
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