Compendium › Crash & Dip › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Crash & Dip's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 5 trades in period

+63.22%
Year to Date Return
$52,910.36
Current Value
80%
Win Rate
$32,416.45
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:31:13

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 48%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.9/25
Win Rate
15.0/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
10.0/10
Raw Quality 96.9/100
× Confidence 0.48 = 46.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (48%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,474
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$32,416.45
Current Value
$52,910.36
Period P&L
$20,493.93
Max Drawdown
-8.5%
Sharpe Ratio
1.12

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
4 / 1
Best Trade
+16.79%
Worst Trade
-8.50%
Avg Trade Return
+10.76%
Avg Hold Time
7.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,474.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$20,493.93
Net P&L (after fees)
$20,493.93
Gross Return
+63.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+63.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crash & Dip had $32,416.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $286.25 113 $32,346.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET $329.24 113 $37,203.89 $37,336.23 +$4,857.64
(+15.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET $328.58 113 $37,129.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET $379.47 113 $42,880.10 $43,086.78 +$5,750.55
(+15.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:40am ET $379.78 113 $42,915.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 2:50pm ET $436.75 113 $49,352.75 $49,524.39 +$6,437.61
(+15.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET $437.59 113 $49,447.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET $400.42 113 $45,247.01 $45,323.72 $-4,200.66
(-8.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $367.34 123 $45,182.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 12, 2026 9:30am ET $429.02 123 $52,769.46 $52,910.36 +$7,586.64
(+16.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $52,910.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$42,910.36
Total Return: +429.10%
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