Compendium › Crasher › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 5 trades in period

+19.70%
Last Year Return
$28,140.12
Current Value
60%
Win Rate
$23,296.36
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

65
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
18.8/25
Win Rate
11.5/15
Profit Factor
13.9/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 86.8/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 64.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,135
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$23,296.36
Current Value
$28,140.12
Period P&L
$4,589.09
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.29

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
3 / 2
Best Trade
+18.02%
Worst Trade
-8.96%
Avg Trade Return
+4.40%
Avg Hold Time
1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$235,856.40
Estimated Fees
$589.64
Gross P&L
$4,589.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,999.45
Gross Return
+19.70%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.17%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $23,296.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $23.06 1,010 $23,296.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 11, 2025 5:10pm ET $21.11 1,010 $21,326.37 $21,214.82 $-2,081.54
(-9.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 7:10pm ET $12.54 1,692 $21,214.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2026 7:10pm ET $12.69 1,692 $21,468.59 $21,361.88 +$147.06
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $7.79 2,743 $21,361.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 7:10pm ET $9.23 2,743 $25,317.06 $25,200.36 +$3,838.48
(+18.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:40am ET $7.63 3,304 $25,200.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 23, 2026 1:40am ET $7.35 3,304 $24,265.42 $24,265.42 $-1,058.60
(-3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 9:30pm ET $9.88 2,457 $24,265.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 20, 2026 9:30pm ET $11.45 2,457 $28,140.12 $28,140.12 +$3,743.69
(+16.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $28,140.12
Net Profit/Loss: +$18,140.12
Total Return: +181.40%
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