Compendium › Crasher › DOGEUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DOGEUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-25 to present • 4 trades in period

+5.41%
Last Year Return
$38,291.40
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$36,143.18
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:22:22

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.8 oversold
20d Trend
-37.1%
5d Trend
-36.5%
EMA20 Dist
-35.0%
ATR%
12.1%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

60
Lifetime
Confidence: 71%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
20.4/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
11.6/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 84.6/100
× Confidence 0.71 = 60.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (71%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,164
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$36,143.18
Current Value
$38,291.40
Period P&L
$1,956.29
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+18.39%
Worst Trade
-11.47%
Avg Trade Return
+2.01%
Avg Hold Time
1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$280,964.54
Estimated Fees
$702.41
Gross P&L
$1,956.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,253.88
Gross Return
+5.41%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.47%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOGEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $36,143.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.2021 178,820 $36,143.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 11, 2025 5:10pm ET $0.1800 178,820 $32,178.73 $32,007.93 $-4,135.25
(-11.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.1262 253,548 $32,007.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 19, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.1289 253,548 $32,679.83 $32,518.11 +$510.18
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.0824 394,829 $32,518.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 7:10pm ET $0.0979 394,829 $38,661.65 $38,483.70 +$5,965.59
(+18.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:30am ET $0.0907 424,493 $38,483.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 23, 2026 1:30am ET $0.0902 424,493 $38,291.40 $38,291.40 $-384.23
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $38,291.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$28,291.40
Total Return: +282.91%
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