Compendium › Crasher › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 2 trades in period

+1.59%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,646.02
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$14,137.64
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:07:09

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 59%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.5/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
8.1/15
Profit Factor
5.2/15
Consistency
8.1/10
Raw Quality 47.9/100
× Confidence 0.59 = 28.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (59%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,042
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,137.64
Current Value
$14,646.02
Period P&L
$225.34
Max Drawdown
-13.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.92

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
2 / 0
Best Trade
+1.96%
Worst Trade
+0.62%
Avg Trade Return
+1.29%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$57,652.22
Estimated Fees
$144.13
Gross P&L
$225.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$81.21
Gross Return
+1.59%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.57%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $14,137.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $61,383.90 0 $14,276.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 2:20am ET $61,763.50 0 $14,364.83 $14,364.83 +$16.68
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $59,300.10 0 $14,364.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 27, 2026 9:50am ET $60,460.90 0 $14,646.02 $14,646.02 +$208.66
(+2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,646.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,646.02
Total Return: +46.46%
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