Compendium › Crasher › ETHUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ETHUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 4 trades in period

+2.72%
Year to Date Return
$20,771.44
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$20,023.56
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:47:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

46
Lifetime
Confidence: 52%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.9/25
Win Rate
12.8/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
8.2/10
Raw Quality 87.9/100
× Confidence 0.52 = 46.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (52%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
76,937
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
268 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$20,023.56
Current Value
$20,771.44
Period P&L
$544.33
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.49

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+3.83%
Worst Trade
-2.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.96%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$161,684.73
Estimated Fees
$404.21
Gross P&L
$544.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$140.12
Gross Return
+2.72%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.70%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 268 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher had $20,023.56 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 12:30pm ET $2,385.19 8 $20,023.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $2,366.01 8 $19,862.54 $19,762.83 $-260.73
(-1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET $1,960.87 10 $19,762.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 10:20am ET $2,045.80 10 $20,618.81 $20,517.85 +$755.02
(+3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $1,639.61 13 $20,517.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 2:20am ET $1,603.33 13 $20,063.85 $20,063.85 $-555.46
(-2.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $1,536.00 13 $20,063.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 27, 2026 9:55am ET $1,590.17 13 $20,771.44 $20,771.44 +$605.50
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $20,771.44
Net Profit/Loss: +$10,771.44
Total Return: +107.71%
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