Compendium › Danny Dip › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+6.22%
Last Month Return
$248.68
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$219.09
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:42:47

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.8/10
Raw Quality 1.8/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 1.7

30-Day Momentum

29
+7.4%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 48.1 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+28 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,829
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
31 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$219.09
Current Value
$248.68
Period P&L
$13.62
Max Drawdown
-97.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.63

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+5.48%
Worst Trade
-3.12%
Avg Trade Return
+2.48%
Avg Hold Time
17.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$1,400.38
Estimated Fees
$3.50
Gross P&L
$13.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$10.12
Gross Return
+6.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.62%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 31 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $219.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 7:05pm ET $8.98 26 $231.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:55pm ET $8.70 26 $224.33 $224.33 $-8.36
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET $9.04 25 $224.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:20pm ET $9.50 25 $235.75 $235.75 +$10.26
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET $9.30 25 $235.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $9.81 25 $248.68 $248.68 +$11.72
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $248.68
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,751.32
Total Return: -97.51%
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