Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 13:56:56

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 4.0

30-Day Momentum

3
-3.7%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-1 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,144
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
32 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$2,730.74
Current Value
$2,764.84
Period P&L
$-195.12
Max Drawdown
-77.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
2 / 4
Best Trade
+5.52%
Worst Trade
-3.75%
Avg Trade Return
-0.54%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$32,768.67
Estimated Fees
$81.92
Gross P&L
$-195.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$-277.04
Gross Return
-7.15%
Net Return (after fees)
-10.15%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 32 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $2,730.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 17, 2026 8:30pm ET $2,111.89 1 $2,869.96
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 3:50am ET $2,032.73 1 $2,762.39 $2,762.39 $-121.66
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:30am ET $1,909.00 1 $2,762.39
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 7:30pm ET $1,845.80 1 $2,670.94 $2,670.94 $-105.04
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $1,719.08 2 $2,670.94
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:35pm ET $1,805.50 2 $2,805.21 $2,805.21 +$120.58
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 1:55am ET $1,688.44 2 $2,805.21
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:55am ET $1,630.03 2 $2,708.17 $2,708.17 $-110.83
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET $1,613.92 2 $2,708.17
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET $1,561.51 2 $2,620.23 $2,620.23 $-101.27
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $1,544.29 2 $2,620.23
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 4:50am ET $1,629.52 2 $2,764.84 $2,764.84 +$131.15
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $2,764.84
Net Profit/Loss: $-7,235.16
Total Return: -72.35%
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