Compendium › Danny Dip › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-08-25 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.64%
Last Month Return
$3,726.45
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$3,595.71
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:00:37

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.0 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-08-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
22 days
Data Gaps
None (1 market holiday)

Market Closed (1 day)

2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$3,595.71
Current Value
$3,726.45
Period P&L
$130.77
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.24

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.05%
Worst Trade
-3.15%
Avg Trade Return
+0.98%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$28,668.77
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$130.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$130.77
Gross Return
+3.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.64%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 22 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,595.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $16.32 220 $3,590.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET $15.83 220 $3,482.60 $3,487.88 $-107.80
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $15.45 225 $3,476.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:55am ET $16.23 225 $3,651.75 $3,663.38 +$175.50
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:25am ET $16.27 225 $3,660.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $15.76 225 $3,545.57 $3,548.20 $-115.18
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $15.20 233 $3,541.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $15.97 233 $3,719.85 $3,726.45 +$178.25
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,726.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,273.55
Total Return: -62.74%
Back to Danny Dip