Compendium › Danny Dip › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-09-24 to present • 24 trades in period

-12.09%
Last Year Return
$16,807.34
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$19,119.70
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:52:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.1/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 38.5/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 32.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
24,106
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$19,119.70
Current Value
$16,807.34
Period P&L
$-2,312.33
Max Drawdown
-21.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
8 / 16
Best Trade
+5.93%
Worst Trade
-5.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.45%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$906,566.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,312.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,312.33
Gross Return
-12.09%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.09%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $19,119.70 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $80.97 236 $19,108.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 29, 2025 1:25pm ET $85.11 236 $20,085.96 $20,096.72 +$977.04
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET $89.22 225 $20,074.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 3:35pm ET $86.27 225 $19,410.75 $19,432.97 $-663.75
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $84.83 229 $19,426.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 9:55am ET $89.29 229 $20,447.48 $20,454.38 +$1,021.41
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 22, 2025 10:25am ET $85.67 238 $20,389.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET $90.08 238 $21,439.04 $21,503.96 +$1,049.58
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $84.66 254 $21,503.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:35am ET $81.91 254 $20,805.14 $20,805.46 $-698.50
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 10:35am ET $78.58 264 $20,745.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $83.24 264 $21,974.57 $22,034.90 +$1,229.45
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $78.91 279 $22,015.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $74.83 279 $20,877.57 $20,896.58 $-1,138.32
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 11:35am ET $74.49 280 $20,857.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:40pm ET $72.09 280 $20,185.20 $20,224.58 $-672.00
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 1, 2025 10:30am ET $77.20 261 $20,149.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 10:25am ET $81.32 261 $21,224.52 $21,299.90 +$1,075.32
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 9:50am ET $81.18 262 $21,269.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 1:45pm ET $78.63 262 $20,601.06 $20,631.80 $-668.10
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $76.67 269 $20,624.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $74.28 269 $19,981.32 $19,988.89 $-642.91
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET $70.77 282 $19,957.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 1:15pm ET $68.59 282 $19,342.38 $19,374.13 $-614.76
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:45am ET $72.31 267 $19,306.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $69.98 267 $18,684.66 $18,752.02 $-622.11
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $69.83 268 $18,714.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:00pm ET $67.67 268 $18,135.56 $18,173.14 $-578.88
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $66.05 275 $18,163.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $69.46 275 $19,101.50 $19,110.89 +$937.75
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:10am ET $76.93 248 $19,078.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 248 $18,386.72 $18,418.62 $-692.27
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
17 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:35am ET $75.88 242 $18,362.96 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $73.50 242 $17,787.00 $17,842.66 $-575.96
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET $77.89 229 $17,837.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:00pm ET $75.51 229 $17,292.93 $17,297.64 $-545.02
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $74.80 231 $17,278.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET $72.53 231 $16,754.43 $16,773.27 $-524.37
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $78.46 213 $16,711.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $75.79 213 $16,143.27 $16,204.56 $-568.71
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $80.83 200 $16,166.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $78.30 200 $15,660.00 $15,698.56 $-506.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $77.36 202 $15,626.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $74.67 202 $15,083.34 $15,155.32 $-543.24
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET $71.55 211 $15,097.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $75.55 211 $15,941.05 $15,999.32 +$844.00
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:15am ET $79.47 201 $15,973.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $83.49 201 $16,781.49 $16,807.34 +$808.02
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,807.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,807.34
Total Return: +68.07%
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