Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:34:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

18
+3.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.0 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
27,892
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$5,471.83
Current Value
$3,726.45
Period P&L
$-1,745.35
Max Drawdown
-55.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
59
Winners / Losers
20 / 39
Best Trade
+5.63%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
-0.57%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$514,299.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,745.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,745.35
Gross Return
-31.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 59 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $5,471.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET $15.42 354 $5,458.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 30, 2025 9:55am ET $14.91 354 $5,276.37 $5,289.45 $-182.35
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET $13.46 392 $5,276.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 9:30am ET $12.99 392 $5,092.20 $5,105.33 $-184.12
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET $12.70 402 $5,104.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 15, 2025 9:40am ET $13.37 402 $5,374.74 $5,376.00 +$270.67
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Oct 20, 2025 10:15am ET $12.69 423 $5,367.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 21, 2025 10:20am ET $13.39 423 $5,664.94 $5,673.07 +$297.07
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 9:35am ET $13.23 428 $5,662.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $12.69 428 $5,429.18 $5,439.81 $-233.26
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 6, 2025 9:30am ET $15.34 354 $5,430.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 6, 2025 10:50am ET $14.87 354 $5,262.21 $5,271.66 $-168.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 7, 2025 10:50am ET $14.73 358 $5,271.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 10:25am ET $15.52 358 $5,556.16 $5,556.27 +$284.61
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 9:30am ET $17.40 319 $5,549.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 10:10am ET $16.80 319 $5,357.64 $5,364.90 $-191.37
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
42m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 10:15am ET $17.09 314 $5,364.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 1:00pm ET $16.51 314 $5,182.57 $5,182.78 $-182.12
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 1:15pm ET $15.31 338 $5,174.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 9:35am ET $14.58 338 $4,929.22 $4,937.22 $-245.56
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET $14.71 335 $4,927.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $15.52 335 $5,197.53 $5,206.90 +$269.68
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 9:40am ET $14.55 357 $5,194.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET $14.06 357 $5,017.64 $5,030.22 $-176.68
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
54m held
13 🟢 BUY Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET $16.98 296 $5,027.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET $17.87 296 $5,288.04 $5,290.82 +$260.60
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET $17.52 302 $5,290.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET $16.97 302 $5,123.43 $5,123.99 $-166.82
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
15 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 11:05am ET $18.89 271 $5,117.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2025 10:15am ET $18.26 271 $4,948.46 $4,954.62 $-169.38
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 10:20am ET $18.46 268 $4,947.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 2:15pm ET $19.43 268 $5,205.90 $5,213.24 +$258.62
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9h held
17 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:30am ET $21.46 242 $5,193.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 10:45am ET $20.77 242 $5,026.34 $5,046.26 $-166.98
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Dec 30, 2025 9:30am ET $20.23 249 $5,037.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 30, 2025 10:00am ET $19.43 249 $4,838.07 $4,847.06 $-199.20
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:20am ET $19.89 243 $4,832.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 10:50am ET $19.17 243 $4,658.31 $4,672.68 $-174.38
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET $19.20 243 $4,665.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 12:30pm ET $20.21 243 $4,912.12 $4,919.20 +$246.52
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 2:30pm ET $20.14 244 $4,912.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 11:00am ET $19.48 244 $4,751.90 $4,758.16 $-161.04
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $17.88 266 $4,754.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET $17.32 266 $4,605.79 $4,609.20 $-148.96
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $15.95 289 $4,608.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:35am ET $16.76 289 $4,842.20 $4,843.29 +$234.09
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:45am ET $15.31 316 $4,836.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 10:55am ET $14.84 316 $4,689.44 $4,696.35 $-146.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
25 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 11:20am ET $14.30 328 $4,690.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:40pm ET $13.87 328 $4,549.36 $4,555.31 $-141.04
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $14.48 314 $4,546.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $14.70 314 $4,617.37 $4,625.96 +$70.65
(+1.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $17.37 266 $4,620.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 10:15am ET $16.84 266 $4,480.77 $4,486.31 $-139.65
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 12:40pm ET $16.39 273 $4,473.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET $15.78 273 $4,307.94 $4,321.14 $-165.17
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
29 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 9:45am ET $15.10 286 $4,320.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET $14.64 286 $4,187.04 $4,188.15 $-132.99
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held
30 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:05am ET $15.16 276 $4,184.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:45pm ET $15.93 276 $4,395.30 $4,399.29 +$211.14
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.7h held
31 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 11:35am ET $16.19 271 $4,386.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET $15.68 271 $4,247.93 $4,261.05 $-138.24
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
32 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 10:05am ET $16.36 260 $4,253.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:00pm ET $15.59 260 $4,052.10 $4,059.55 $-201.50
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held
33 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 1:05pm ET $15.04 269 $4,045.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $15.84 269 $4,260.96 $4,274.78 +$215.23
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
34 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET $15.88 269 $4,270.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $15.38 269 $4,137.22 $4,141.63 $-133.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
35 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:50am ET $15.16 273 $4,140.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET $14.66 273 $4,002.18 $4,003.76 $-137.87
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
36 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 10:05am ET $15.98 250 $3,995.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:25am ET $16.78 250 $4,194.97 $4,203.74 +$199.98
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
37 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET $17.16 244 $4,187.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:55am ET $16.62 244 $4,055.04 $4,071.74 $-132.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
38 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET $16.28 250 $4,070.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $15.47 250 $3,867.50 $3,869.24 $-202.50
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
39 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $14.70 263 $3,866.07 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:25am ET $14.21 263 $3,737.23 $3,740.40 $-128.84
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
40 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $14.06 266 $3,738.63 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $13.48 266 $3,585.68 $3,587.45 $-152.95
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
41 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $12.80 280 $3,582.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $13.52 280 $3,784.20 $3,789.05 +$201.60
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:55am ET $17.74 213 $3,778.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:45am ET $17.18 213 $3,660.40 $3,670.83 $-118.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $16.55 221 $3,657.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:15am ET $15.92 221 $3,518.52 $3,531.80 $-139.03
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:35am ET $14.51 243 $3,525.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 11:25am ET $15.28 243 $3,713.04 $3,718.93 +$187.13
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $16.13 230 $3,709.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:25am ET $15.56 230 $3,577.65 $3,587.30 $-131.63
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
46 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $14.70 243 $3,573.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:40am ET $15.45 243 $3,754.37 $3,768.36 +$181.06
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:45am ET $19.08 197 $3,757.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $18.50 197 $3,644.50 $3,655.08 $-113.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $17.76 205 $3,640.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:30am ET $17.20 205 $3,527.02 $3,541.14 $-113.94
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET $17.42 203 $3,537.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 1:35pm ET $16.83 203 $3,415.48 $3,419.34 $-121.80
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET $17.35 197 $3,417.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:25pm ET $16.82 197 $3,312.56 $3,313.96 $-105.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:25am ET $17.39 190 $3,304.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET $16.73 190 $3,178.70 $3,188.54 $-125.42
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $16.00 199 $3,184.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:35am ET $16.88 199 $3,359.12 $3,362.67 +$174.13
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:40am ET $16.17 207 $3,348.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $17.04 207 $3,527.28 $3,541.73 +$179.06
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 11:05am ET $15.94 222 $3,538.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $15.36 222 $3,409.92 $3,412.97 $-128.76
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:45am ET $14.42 236 $3,403.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 9:55am ET $15.19 236 $3,585.81 $3,595.68 +$182.71
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $16.32 220 $3,590.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET $15.83 220 $3,482.60 $3,487.88 $-107.80
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
57 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $15.45 225 $3,476.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:55am ET $16.23 225 $3,651.75 $3,663.38 +$175.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
58 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 10:25am ET $16.27 225 $3,660.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $15.76 225 $3,545.57 $3,548.20 $-115.18
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
59 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:45am ET $15.20 233 $3,541.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 10:10am ET $15.97 233 $3,719.85 $3,726.45 +$178.25
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,726.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,273.55
Total Return: -62.74%
Back to Danny Dip