Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:06:05

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 3.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 3.3

30-Day Momentum

14
+2.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.9 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,481.92
Current Value
$6,574.87
Period P&L
$1,092.94
Max Drawdown
-34.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.40

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
7 / 5
Best Trade
+5.80%
Worst Trade
-3.67%
Avg Trade Return
+1.71%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$150,463.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,092.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,092.94
Gross Return
+19.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+19.94%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $5,481.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 11:30am ET $192.70 28 $5,395.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $202.65 28 $5,674.06 $5,726.23 +$278.60
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:40am ET $214.00 26 $5,564.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 11:00am ET $225.18 26 $5,854.81 $6,017.04 +$290.81
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $214.09 28 $5,994.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET $226.50 28 $6,342.00 $6,364.52 +$347.48
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $221.16 28 $6,192.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 12:50pm ET $232.69 28 $6,515.32 $6,687.36 +$322.84
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:30am ET $229.41 29 $6,652.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET $221.88 29 $6,434.52 $6,468.99 $-218.37
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $251.55 25 $6,288.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:25am ET $243.96 25 $6,099.00 $6,279.24 $-189.75
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET $252.71 24 $6,065.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:05am ET $265.92 24 $6,382.08 $6,596.16 +$316.92
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 9:45am ET $263.34 25 $6,583.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 10:50am ET $255.34 25 $6,383.38 $6,396.14 $-200.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $265.52 24 $6,372.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $279.18 24 $6,700.32 $6,723.98 +$327.84
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET $266.70 25 $6,667.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $256.90 25 $6,422.50 $6,478.98 $-245.00
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
11 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 9:30am ET $241.52 26 $6,279.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $253.90 26 $6,601.40 $6,800.81 +$321.83
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4h held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $254.30 26 $6,611.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:45am ET $245.62 26 $6,385.99 $6,574.87 $-225.94
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,574.87
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,425.13
Total Return: -34.25%
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