Compendium › Danny Dip › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 5 trades in period

+1.49%
Last 3 Months Return
$16,807.34
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$16,560.30
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:58:25

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

32
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.1/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.4/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 38.5/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 32.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,560.30
Current Value
$16,807.34
Period P&L
$247.07
Max Drawdown
-21.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+5.59%
Worst Trade
-3.48%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
5.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$159,184.23
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$247.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$247.07
Gross Return
+1.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $16,560.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $78.46 213 $16,711.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $75.79 213 $16,143.27 $16,204.56 $-568.71
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $80.83 200 $16,166.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 1:45pm ET $78.30 200 $15,660.00 $15,698.56 $-506.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $77.36 202 $15,626.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $74.67 202 $15,083.34 $15,155.32 $-543.24
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET $71.55 211 $15,097.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:35am ET $75.55 211 $15,941.05 $15,999.32 +$844.00
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 10:15am ET $79.47 201 $15,973.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $83.49 201 $16,781.49 $16,807.34 +$808.02
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,807.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,807.34
Total Return: +68.07%
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