Compendium › Danny Dip › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 24 trades in period

+44.19%
Last 3 Months Return
$292.74
Current Value
58%
Win Rate
$154.86
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.4/10
Raw Quality 2.4/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 2.4

30-Day Momentum

42
+11.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.0 Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,831
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$154.86
Current Value
$292.74
Period P&L
$68.43
Max Drawdown
-97.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.41

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
24
Winners / Losers
14 / 10
Best Trade
+7.80%
Worst Trade
-4.33%
Avg Trade Return
+1.86%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$12,632.51
Estimated Fees
$31.58
Gross P&L
$68.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$36.85
Gross Return
+44.19%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.79%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 24 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $154.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $6.07 32 $192.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 6:05pm ET $6.43 32 $204.00 $204.00 +$10.27
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET $6.15 33 $204.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 1:25pm ET $6.46 33 $214.52 $214.52 +$9.48
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:05pm ET $6.41 33 $214.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 2:50am ET $6.74 33 $225.63 $225.63 +$10.01
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 11, 2026 8:05pm ET $6.50 35 $225.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 2:05pm ET $6.25 35 $217.16 $217.16 $-9.58
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 2:15pm ET $6.22 35 $217.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 25, 2026 10:15am ET $6.55 35 $228.46 $228.46 +$10.19
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $6.05 38 $228.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 2, 2026 12:55am ET $6.52 38 $246.28 $246.28 +$16.64
(+7.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10.1h held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 6:05am ET $6.40 38 $246.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET $6.17 38 $237.28 $237.28 $-10.21
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET $6.21 38 $237.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 1:55am ET $6.54 38 $249.54 $249.54 +$11.04
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 15, 2026 8:05pm ET $6.25 40 $249.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET $6.66 40 $265.80 $265.80 +$14.97
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.6d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 5:10am ET $7.45 36 $265.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 6:10pm ET $7.83 36 $279.29 $279.29 +$12.13
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
13h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $7.88 35 $279.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 1:45am ET $7.63 35 $270.36 $270.36 $-10.31
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:50am ET $7.73 35 $270.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 4:35am ET $7.49 35 $261.83 $261.83 $-9.86
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 5:05am ET $7.47 35 $261.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:50am ET $7.23 35 $253.35 $253.35 $-9.77
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 30, 2026 7:40pm ET $7.10 36 $253.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 11:00am ET $7.47 36 $266.37 $266.37 +$11.72
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.6d held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET $7.21 37 $266.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 4:40am ET $7.59 37 $280.37 $280.37 +$12.63
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 8:25am ET $9.06 31 $280.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 12:15pm ET $9.59 31 $296.64 $296.64 +$14.83
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 8:50pm ET $10.49 28 $296.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 9:05pm ET $10.03 28 $283.80 $283.80 $-14.29
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 9:10pm ET $9.98 28 $283.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 19, 2026 10:20pm ET $9.68 28 $275.21 $275.21 $-9.99
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 19, 2026 10:25pm ET $9.67 28 $275.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 20, 2026 7:55am ET $10.31 28 $293.57 $293.57 +$16.94
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.5h held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $11.01 27 $293.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 20, 2026 8:15pm ET $11.58 27 $308.90 $308.90 +$13.83
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 20, 2026 9:40pm ET $11.37 27 $308.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 3:35am ET $10.99 27 $298.60 $298.60 $-11.82
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET $10.77 28 $298.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 7:05pm ET $11.32 28 $313.99 $313.99 +$13.86
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 8:05am ET $10.86 29 $313.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET $10.47 29 $302.57 $302.57 $-12.96
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET $10.37 29 $302.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 5:35am ET $10.04 29 $292.74 $292.74 $-11.32
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $292.74
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,707.26
Total Return: -97.07%
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