Compendium › Danny Dip › AVAXUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVAXUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-21 to present • 26 trades in period

-40.89%
Last 3 Months Return
$182.45
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$246.19
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 13:54:40

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

2
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
1.7/10
Raw Quality 1.7/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 1.7

30-Day Momentum

10
-21.1%
30d Return
28%
Win Rate
18
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+8 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,711
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$246.19
Current Value
$182.45
Period P&L
$-100.67
Max Drawdown
-97.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.30

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
7 / 19
Best Trade
+5.77%
Worst Trade
-4.40%
Avg Trade Return
-1.20%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$11,232.36
Estimated Fees
$28.08
Gross P&L
$-100.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$-128.75
Gross Return
-40.89%
Net Return (after fees)
-52.30%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $246.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 21, 2026 7:55pm ET $9.22 28 $254.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 22, 2026 5:15pm ET $8.93 28 $246.97 $246.97 $-9.28
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET $9.37 26 $246.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET $9.06 26 $238.80 $238.80 $-9.39
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:35pm ET $8.89 27 $238.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $8.62 27 $231.55 $231.55 $-8.43
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 7:05pm ET $8.98 26 $231.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:55pm ET $8.70 26 $224.33 $224.33 $-8.36
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET $9.04 25 $224.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:20pm ET $9.50 25 $235.75 $235.75 +$10.26
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET $9.30 25 $235.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $9.81 25 $248.68 $248.68 +$11.72
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held
7 🟢 BUY May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET $9.99 25 $248.68 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 11:25am ET $9.69 25 $241.21 $241.21 $-8.69
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
8 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 10:00am ET $9.46 25 $241.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 17, 2026 7:45pm ET $9.07 25 $231.27 $231.27 $-11.13
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held
9 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 4:40am ET $8.83 26 $231.27 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 2:35pm ET $9.29 26 $243.32 $243.32 +$10.86
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.9h held
10 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 12:15am ET $8.77 28 $243.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:30am ET $8.42 28 $233.61 $233.61 $-10.90
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.4d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET $8.41 28 $233.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 6:55pm ET $8.11 28 $225.28 $225.28 $-9.48
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 7:00pm ET $8.12 28 $225.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET $7.80 28 $216.40 $216.40 $-9.98
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET $7.83 28 $216.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $7.54 28 $208.39 $208.39 $-9.08
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET $7.65 27 $208.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 12:05am ET $8.05 27 $219.29 $219.29 +$9.83
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:00pm ET $7.42 30 $219.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $7.12 30 $210.54 $210.54 $-9.82
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:25am ET $7.07 30 $210.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:05pm ET $6.84 30 $203.60 $203.60 $-7.97
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.7h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET $6.85 30 $203.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $6.60 30 $196.14 $196.14 $-8.46
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $6.66 29 $196.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 5:50pm ET $7.00 29 $206.21 $206.21 +$9.06
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $6.78 30 $206.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:25pm ET $6.57 30 $199.88 $199.88 $-7.35
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 11:55pm ET $6.52 31 $199.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:30am ET $6.26 31 $191.97 $191.97 $-8.89
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 12:35am ET $6.27 31 $191.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 2:05am ET $6.63 31 $203.05 $203.05 +$10.09
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 6:35am ET $6.60 31 $203.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 5:10pm ET $6.37 31 $196.07 $196.07 $-7.98
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.4d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET $6.75 29 $196.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:15am ET $6.53 29 $189.71 $189.71 $-7.33
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 11:20am ET $6.42 30 $189.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:20pm ET $6.15 30 $181.73 $181.73 $-8.91
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12h held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 19, 2026 12:30am ET $6.09 30 $181.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 19, 2026 2:40pm ET $5.82 30 $173.73 $173.73 $-8.89
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 19, 2026 2:45pm ET $5.80 30 $173.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 20, 2026 3:25am ET $6.09 30 $182.45 $182.45 +$7.83
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $182.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,817.55
Total Return: -98.18%
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