Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 13:54:44

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 4.8

30-Day Momentum

3
-12.8%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,711
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$3,425.35
Current Value
$2,841.56
Period P&L
$-756.05
Max Drawdown
-84.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.86

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
1 / 7
Best Trade
+5.05%
Worst Trade
-3.95%
Avg Trade Return
-2.45%
Avg Hold Time
2.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$48,865.58
Estimated Fees
$122.16
Gross P&L
$-756.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$-878.21
Gross Return
-22.07%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.64%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,425.35 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 8:35am ET $55.93 62 $3,477.63
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 8:00pm ET $54.22 62 $3,371.31 $3,371.31 $-123.45
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET $58.06 58 $3,371.31
🔴 SELL May 16, 2026 2:50am ET $56.14 58 $3,259.82 $3,259.82 $-128.06
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4d held
3 🟢 BUY May 17, 2026 7:50pm ET $54.13 60 $3,259.82
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 7:50pm ET $52.45 60 $3,158.65 $3,158.65 $-117.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET $47.64 66 $3,158.65
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET $45.84 66 $3,039.31 $3,039.31 $-134.84
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET $45.86 66 $3,039.31
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $44.17 66 $2,927.31 $2,927.31 $-126.92
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET $44.84 65 $2,927.31
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:25am ET $43.07 65 $2,811.76 $2,811.76 $-129.90
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:30am ET $43.21 65 $2,811.76
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:20am ET $41.57 65 $2,705.04 $2,705.04 $-120.51
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 12:25am ET $41.61 65 $2,705.04
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 5:25pm ET $43.71 65 $2,841.56 $2,841.56 +$122.65
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $2,841.56
Net Profit/Loss: $-7,158.44
Total Return: -71.58%
Back to Danny Dip