Compendium › Danny Dip › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 29 trades in period

-29.05%
Last 3 Months Return
$7,127.95
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$10,046.21
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:31:17

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 4.6/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.5

30-Day Momentum

4
-6.7%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,046.21
Current Value
$7,127.95
Period P&L
$-2,918.21
Max Drawdown
-46.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
8 / 21
Best Trade
+8.49%
Worst Trade
-5.66%
Avg Trade Return
-1.08%
Avg Hold Time
23.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$521,998.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,918.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,918.21
Gross Return
-29.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-29.05%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $10,046.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET $13.46 746 $10,041.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:15am ET $14.24 746 $10,623.04 $10,628.04 +$581.88
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
35m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $13.29 799 $10,618.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:35am ET $13.98 799 $11,166.03 $11,175.36 +$547.32
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:40am ET $13.41 833 $11,170.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:05am ET $12.79 833 $10,654.15 $10,658.98 $-516.38
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 11:20am ET $12.94 823 $10,653.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET $12.56 823 $10,333.34 $10,338.59 $-320.39
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET $11.78 877 $10,331.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $12.78 877 $11,208.06 $11,215.59 +$877.00
(+8.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $13.16 852 $11,212.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:55am ET $12.69 852 $10,816.14 $10,819.41 $-396.18
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 10:05am ET $12.22 885 $10,810.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 1:00pm ET $11.83 885 $10,468.67 $10,477.80 $-341.61
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET $11.89 881 $10,475.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 11:45am ET $11.51 881 $10,140.66 $10,143.37 $-334.43
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 2:30pm ET $12.34 822 $10,139.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $11.92 822 $9,798.24 $9,802.24 $-341.13
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET $12.51 783 $9,791.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET $12.08 783 $9,458.64 $9,469.46 $-332.78
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $10.89 869 $9,463.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:30am ET $11.48 869 $9,971.78 $9,977.83 +$508.37
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 11:30am ET $10.53 947 $9,976.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:40pm ET $10.11 947 $9,578.90 $9,580.09 $-397.74
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $11.57 827 $9,572.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $11.10 827 $9,183.83 $9,191.40 $-388.69
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET $11.45 802 $9,183.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $10.94 802 $8,773.88 $8,782.22 $-409.18
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET $10.45 840 $8,778.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET $9.86 840 $8,281.56 $8,285.78 $-496.44
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET $9.66 857 $8,278.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $10.16 857 $8,706.26 $8,713.42 +$427.64
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.46 921 $8,712.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET $9.01 921 $8,298.21 $8,298.97 $-414.45
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $9.45 878 $8,297.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:55am ET $9.11 878 $8,002.97 $8,004.84 $-294.13
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:25pm ET $9.57 836 $8,004.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $10.24 836 $8,560.64 $8,560.78 +$555.94
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET $11.81 724 $8,554.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET $11.30 724 $8,177.58 $8,184.30 $-376.48
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 11:00am ET $11.55 708 $8,173.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET $11.13 708 $7,881.39 $7,891.83 $-292.47
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $11.58 681 $7,885.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 11:40am ET $11.22 681 $7,637.42 $7,643.27 $-248.56
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET $11.88 643 $7,635.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $11.40 643 $7,330.14 $7,337.78 $-305.49
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:15am ET $10.38 707 $7,335.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $10.03 707 $7,091.21 $7,093.86 $-243.92
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET $11.44 620 $7,092.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET $12.02 620 $7,449.30 $7,450.36 +$356.50
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $11.57 643 $7,439.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET $12.24 643 $7,869.55 $7,880.40 +$430.04
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET $11.53 683 $7,878.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET $11.13 683 $7,598.38 $7,600.37 $-280.03
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $11.16 680 $7,592.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:30pm ET $10.82 680 $7,357.60 $7,365.77 $-234.60
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET $13.38 550 $7,360.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:25am ET $12.95 550 $7,122.44 $7,127.95 $-237.82
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,127.95
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,872.05
Total Return: -28.72%
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