PEPEUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 51 trades in period
-32.74%
Last 3 Months Return
$742.39
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$528.18
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.2 neutral
20d Trend
-19.0%
5d Trend
-17.2%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.6%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality
3.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.4
30-Day Momentum
10
-23.9%
30d Return
26%
Win Rate
23
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,552
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$528.18
Current Value
$742.39
Period P&L
$-172.90
Max Drawdown
-99.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
51
Winners / Losers
22 /
29
Best Trade
+5.91%
Worst Trade
-11.24%
Avg Trade Return
+0.24%
Avg Hold Time
15.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$79,158.83
Estimated Fees
$197.90
Gross P&L
$-172.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$-370.80
Gross Return
-32.74%
Net Return (after fees)
-70.20%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 PEPEUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 51 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $528.18 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000244 | 283,795,082 | $692.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.00000235 | 283,795,082 | $666.92 | $666.92 |
$-28.94 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000232 | 287,465,517 | $666.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $0.00000244 | 287,465,517 | $701.42 | $701.42 |
+$31.08 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:50am ET | $0.00000226 | 310,362,832 | $701.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 5:45pm ET | $0.00000238 | 310,362,832 | $738.66 | $738.66 |
+$33.64 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.9h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 3, 2026 6:35pm ET | $0.00000273 | 270,571,429 | $738.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 5, 2026 5:45am ET | $0.00000264 | 270,571,429 | $714.31 | $714.31 |
$-27.98 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:05am ET | $0.00000261 | 273,681,992 | $714.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000275 | 273,681,992 | $752.63 | $752.63 |
+$34.65 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.00000278 | 270,730,216 | $752.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2026 8:30pm ET | $0.00000269 | 270,730,216 | $728.26 | $728.26 |
$-28.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000279 | 261,025,090 | $728.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 4:15am ET | $0.00000270 | 261,025,090 | $704.77 | $704.77 |
$-27.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000291 | 242,189,003 | $704.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 2:35am ET | $0.00000307 | 242,189,003 | $743.52 | $743.52 |
+$35.13 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.2h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000291 | 255,505,155 | $743.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 7:00pm ET | $0.00000282 | 255,505,155 | $720.52 | $720.52 |
$-26.66 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 7:05pm ET | $0.00000282 | 255,503,546 | $720.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:50pm ET | $0.00000273 | 255,503,546 | $697.52 | $697.52 |
$-26.54 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 4:10pm ET | $0.00000269 | 259,301,115 | $697.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2026 9:40pm ET | $0.00000283 | 259,301,115 | $733.82 | $733.82 |
+$32.72 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 9, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000287 | 255,686,411 | $733.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $0.00000278 | 255,686,411 | $710.81 | $710.81 |
$-26.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 6:50pm ET | $0.00000267 | 266,220,974 | $710.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $0.00000258 | 266,220,974 | $686.85 | $686.85 |
$-27.45 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 5:55am ET | $0.00000308 | 223,003,247 | $686.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 5:15pm ET | $0.00000324 | 223,003,247 | $722.53 | $722.53 |
+$32.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 5:20am ET | $0.00000344 | 210,037,791 | $722.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 6:15am ET | $0.00000363 | 210,037,791 | $762.44 | $762.44 |
+$36.19 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000357 | 213,568,627 | $762.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:15am ET | $0.00000375 | 213,568,627 | $800.88 | $800.88 |
+$34.53 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:25pm ET | $0.00000384 | 208,562,500 | $800.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET | $0.00000405 | 208,562,500 | $844.68 | $844.68 |
+$39.68 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $0.00000394 | 214,385,787 | $844.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 3:05pm ET | $0.00000378 | 214,385,787 | $810.38 | $810.38 |
$-38.44 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:10pm ET | $0.00000377 | 214,954,907 | $810.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 6:00pm ET | $0.00000396 | 214,954,907 | $851.22 | $851.22 |
+$36.69 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 8:10pm ET | $0.00000409 | 208,122,249 | $851.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:30pm ET | $0.00000432 | 208,122,249 | $899.09 | $899.09 |
+$43.49 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:00am ET | $0.00000436 | 206,213,303 | $899.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.00000387 | 206,213,303 | $798.05 | $798.05 |
$-105.29 (-11.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:15am ET | $0.00000399 | 200,012,531 | $798.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 3:20am ET | $0.00000419 | 200,012,531 | $838.05 | $838.05 |
+$35.91 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 4:05am ET | $0.00000411 | 203,905,109 | $838.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 6:15am ET | $0.00000397 | 203,905,109 | $809.50 | $809.50 |
$-32.67 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 6:20am ET | $0.00000395 | 204,936,709 | $809.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 12:45pm ET | $0.00000417 | 204,936,709 | $854.59 | $854.59 |
+$40.93 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $0.00000406 | 210,490,148 | $854.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 2:00am ET | $0.00000393 | 210,490,148 | $827.23 | $827.23 |
$-31.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 23, 2026 2:05am ET | $0.00000392 | 211,028,061 | $827.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 9:50am ET | $0.00000413 | 211,028,061 | $871.55 | $871.55 |
+$40.07 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.00000404 | 215,730,198 | $871.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 11:10pm ET | $0.00000427 | 215,730,198 | $921.17 | $921.17 |
+$45.14 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 12:35am ET | $0.00000416 | 221,435,096 | $921.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 5:55am ET | $0.00000403 | 221,435,096 | $892.38 | $892.38 |
$-33.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 4:50pm ET | $0.00000384 | 232,390,625 | $892.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $0.00000372 | 232,390,625 | $864.49 | $864.49 |
$-32.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:20pm ET | $0.00000384 | 225,127,604 | $864.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:05pm ET | $0.00000370 | 225,127,604 | $832.97 | $832.97 |
$-35.76 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:10pm ET | $0.00000371 | 224,520,216 | $832.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 30, 2026 7:10pm ET | $0.00000357 | 224,520,216 | $801.54 | $801.54 |
$-35.52 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:20pm ET | $0.00000354 | 226,423,729 | $801.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 30, 2026 7:40pm ET | $0.00000341 | 226,423,729 | $772.10 | $772.10 |
$-33.37 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:45pm ET | $0.00000340 | 227,088,235 | $772.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 5:10am ET | $0.00000357 | 227,088,235 | $810.71 | $810.71 |
+$34.65 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 6:35pm ET | $0.00000368 | 220,301,630 | $810.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 8:35am ET | $0.00000356 | 220,301,630 | $784.27 | $784.27 |
$-30.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 8:40am ET | $0.00000358 | 219,069,832 | $784.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 10:35pm ET | $0.00000346 | 219,069,832 | $757.98 | $757.98 |
$-30.14 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:20pm ET | $0.00000364 | 208,236,264 | $757.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $0.00000353 | 208,236,264 | $735.07 | $735.07 |
$-26.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $0.00000341 | 215,563,050 | $735.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET | $0.00000330 | 215,563,050 | $711.36 | $711.36 |
$-27.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $0.00000325 | 218,880,000 | $711.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $0.00000342 | 218,880,000 | $748.57 | $748.57 |
+$33.56 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $0.00000338 | 221,470,414 | $748.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $0.00000327 | 221,470,414 | $724.21 | $724.21 |
$-28.04 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:40pm ET | $0.00000372 | 194,680,108 | $724.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000394 | 194,680,108 | $767.04 | $767.04 |
+$39.10 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 5:40pm ET | $0.00000407 | 188,461,916 | $767.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2026 11:00pm ET | $0.00000393 | 188,461,916 | $740.66 | $740.66 |
$-30.15 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 11:05pm ET | $0.00000393 | 188,463,104 | $740.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 4:40am ET | $0.00000413 | 188,463,104 | $778.35 | $778.35 |
+$33.90 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 11:25am ET | $0.00000475 | 163,863,158 | $778.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $0.00000501 | 163,863,158 | $820.95 | $820.95 |
+$38.61 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.00000490 | 167,540,816 | $820.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 7:35pm ET | $0.00000474 | 167,540,816 | $794.14 | $794.14 |
$-30.84 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 7:45pm ET | $0.00000472 | 168,250,000 | $794.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 8:30pm ET | $0.00000497 | 168,250,000 | $836.20 | $836.20 |
+$37.99 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 12:55am ET | $0.00000513 | 163,001,949 | $836.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 1:05am ET | $0.00000497 | 163,001,949 | $810.12 | $810.12 |
$-30.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.00000501 | 161,700,599 | $810.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:35am ET | $0.00000484 | 161,700,599 | $782.63 | $782.63 |
$-31.47 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 7:30am ET | $0.00000470 | 166,517,021 | $782.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $0.00000453 | 166,517,021 | $754.32 | $754.32 |
$-32.15 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $0.00000454 | 166,149,780 | $754.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000439 | 166,149,780 | $729.40 | $729.40 |
$-28.63 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000439 | 166,150,342 | $729.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 5:35am ET | $0.00000422 | 166,150,342 | $701.15 | $701.15 |
$-31.82 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 5:40am ET | $0.00000425 | 164,976,471 | $701.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $0.00000450 | 164,976,471 | $742.39 | $742.39 |
+$37.64 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$742.39
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,257.61
Total Return:
-92.58%