SHIBUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 30 trades in period
-19.66%
Last 3 Months Return
$2,899.58
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$2,675.03
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22 oversold
20d Trend
-35.2%
5d Trend
-32.9%
EMA20 Dist
+0.0%
ATR%
10.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
5.0/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.9
30-Day Momentum
16
+1.5%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.5
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,549
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$2,675.03
Current Value
$2,899.58
Period P&L
$-526.02
Max Drawdown
-94.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.01
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
12 /
18
Best Trade
+5.97%
Worst Trade
-5.78%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$177,561.93
Estimated Fees
$443.90
Gross P&L
$-526.02
Net P&L (after fees)
$-969.93
Gross Return
-19.66%
Net Return (after fees)
-36.26%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SHIBUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $2,675.03 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $0.00000432 | 684,067,130 | $2,955.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $0.00000416 | 684,067,130 | $2,845.72 | $2,845.72 |
$-123.95 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $0.00000407 | 699,194,103 | $2,845.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 2:00pm ET | $0.00000428 | 699,194,103 | $2,992.55 | $2,992.55 |
+$132.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:40pm ET | $0.00000415 | 721,096,386 | $2,992.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2026 12:05pm ET | $0.00000438 | 721,096,386 | $3,158.40 | $3,158.40 |
+$150.47 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000471 | 670,573,248 | $3,158.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $0.00000496 | 670,573,248 | $3,326.04 | $3,326.04 |
+$151.43 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $0.00000492 | 676,024,390 | $3,326.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2026 10:00pm ET | $0.00000521 | 676,024,390 | $3,522.09 | $3,522.09 |
+$178.93 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.4h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 26, 2026 4:05am ET | $0.00000554 | 635,756,318 | $3,522.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 26, 2026 5:35am ET | $0.00000534 | 635,756,318 | $3,394.94 | $3,394.94 |
$-144.44 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 26, 2026 5:40am ET | $0.00000540 | 628,692,593 | $3,394.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 26, 2026 9:25am ET | $0.00000517 | 628,692,593 | $3,250.34 | $3,250.34 |
$-161.21 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $0.00000517 | 628,692,456 | $3,250.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 5:15am ET | $0.00000499 | 628,692,456 | $3,137.18 | $3,137.18 |
$-129.13 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 5:20am ET | $0.00000499 | 628,693,387 | $3,137.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 7:45pm ET | $0.00000483 | 628,693,387 | $3,036.59 | $3,036.59 |
$-116.03 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 7:50pm ET | $0.00000483 | 628,693,582 | $3,036.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 8:50pm ET | $0.00000466 | 628,693,582 | $2,929.71 | $2,929.71 |
$-121.79 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 8:55pm ET | $0.00000469 | 624,671,642 | $2,929.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:20am ET | $0.00000454 | 624,671,642 | $2,836.01 | $2,836.01 |
$-108.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2026 1:05am ET | $0.00000488 | 581,149,590 | $2,836.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $0.00000514 | 581,149,590 | $2,987.11 | $2,987.11 |
+$136.54 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2026 1:00pm ET | $0.00000499 | 598,619,238 | $2,987.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $0.00000484 | 598,619,238 | $2,897.32 | $2,897.32 |
$-104.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $0.00000483 | 599,859,213 | $2,897.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 11:50am ET | $0.00000468 | 599,859,213 | $2,807.34 | $2,807.34 |
$-104.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 5:20pm ET | $0.00000450 | 623,853,333 | $2,807.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 12:00am ET | $0.00000436 | 623,853,333 | $2,720.00 | $2,720.00 |
$-101.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 5:15am ET | $0.00000514 | 529,182,879 | $2,720.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 1:10pm ET | $0.00000542 | 529,182,879 | $2,868.17 | $2,868.17 |
+$134.20 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 3:05pm ET | $0.00000522 | 549,457,854 | $2,868.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 5:25pm ET | $0.00000552 | 549,457,854 | $3,033.01 | $3,033.01 |
+$150.08 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:25pm ET | $0.00000596 | 508,894,295 | $3,033.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $0.00000574 | 508,894,295 | $2,921.05 | $2,921.05 |
$-126.84 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:15am ET | $0.00000565 | 517,000,000 | $2,921.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 6:10am ET | $0.00000544 | 517,000,000 | $2,812.48 | $2,812.48 |
$-122.90 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 6:15am ET | $0.00000542 | 518,907,749 | $2,812.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 12:50am ET | $0.00000522 | 518,907,749 | $2,708.70 | $2,708.70 |
$-117.58 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $0.00000533 | 508,198,874 | $2,708.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:30pm ET | $0.00000562 | 508,198,874 | $2,856.08 | $2,856.08 |
+$133.47 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:50am ET | $0.00000549 | 520,233,151 | $2,856.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 4:45pm ET | $0.00000532 | 520,233,151 | $2,767.64 | $2,767.64 |
$-102.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 5:10pm ET | $0.00000521 | 531,216,891 | $2,767.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000548 | 531,216,891 | $2,911.07 | $2,911.07 |
+$129.23 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:50pm ET | $0.00000532 | 547,193,609 | $2,911.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $0.00000514 | 547,193,609 | $2,812.58 | $2,812.58 |
$-112.80 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $0.00000514 | 547,194,553 | $2,812.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 30, 2026 7:30pm ET | $0.00000497 | 547,194,553 | $2,719.56 | $2,719.56 |
$-106.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:40pm ET | $0.00000496 | 548,298,387 | $2,719.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 1:35am ET | $0.00000521 | 548,298,387 | $2,856.63 | $2,856.63 |
+$123.13 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $0.00000494 | 578,265,182 | $2,856.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 10:05am ET | $0.00000478 | 578,265,182 | $2,764.11 | $2,764.11 |
$-106.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 11:00pm ET | $0.00000534 | 517,623,596 | $2,764.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 4:05am ET | $0.00000561 | 517,623,596 | $2,903.87 | $2,903.87 |
+$125.59 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:35pm ET | $0.00000586 | 495,540,956 | $2,903.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 12:05am ET | $0.00000621 | 495,540,956 | $3,077.31 | $3,077.31 |
+$158.49 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 12:55am ET | $0.00000606 | 507,806,931 | $3,077.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $0.00000571 | 507,806,931 | $2,899.58 | $2,899.58 |
$-192.67 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$2,899.58
Net Profit/Loss:
$-7,100.42
Total Return:
-71.00%