Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:35

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

27
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 27.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 26.8

30-Day Momentum

27
+6.7%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 44.1 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,547.34
Current Value
$15,443.91
Period P&L
$1,896.54
Max Drawdown
-40.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
8 / 9
Best Trade
+7.22%
Worst Trade
-4.19%
Avg Trade Return
+0.88%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$495,035.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,896.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,896.54
Gross Return
+14.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $13,547.34 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $72.89 185 $13,484.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $78.02 185 $14,433.70 $14,496.50 +$949.14
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $72.00 201 $14,472.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 12:00pm ET $75.63 201 $15,200.63 $15,225.13 +$728.63
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $78.51 193 $15,153.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:35am ET $75.99 193 $14,666.13 $14,737.86 $-487.27
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 200 $14,706.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET $71.24 200 $14,247.00 $14,278.86 $-459.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET $69.71 204 $14,220.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $74.74 204 $15,246.96 $15,304.98 +$1,026.12
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $74.70 204 $15,238.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $72.32 204 $14,753.28 $14,819.46 $-485.52
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET $73.59 201 $14,791.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $71.15 201 $14,301.17 $14,329.04 $-490.42
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:55am ET $66.45 215 $14,286.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET $70.13 215 $15,077.95 $15,120.24 +$791.20
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $67.06 225 $15,088.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET $64.25 225 $14,456.27 $14,488.01 $-632.23
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 10:20am ET $63.72 227 $14,465.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $61.27 227 $13,908.29 $13,930.73 $-557.28
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET $60.12 231 $13,887.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $58.30 231 $13,467.28 $13,510.29 $-420.44
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET $64.21 210 $13,484.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $67.56 210 $14,186.55 $14,212.74 +$702.45
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $71.07 199 $14,142.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:10am ET $74.83 199 $14,891.19 $14,961.00 +$748.26
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $73.27 204 $14,947.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $70.90 204 $14,463.60 $14,477.52 $-483.48
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $69.11 209 $14,443.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:30am ET $72.57 209 $15,168.17 $15,201.72 +$724.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $71.76 211 $15,142.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $69.14 211 $14,588.54 $14,647.85 $-553.88
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $68.93 212 $14,613.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.68 212 $15,409.22 $15,443.91 +$796.06
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,443.91
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,443.91
Total Return: +54.44%
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