Compendium › Danny Dip › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 4 trades in period

+5.00%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,975.30
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$8,548.29
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:38

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 76%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.76 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (76%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,548.29
Current Value
$8,975.30
Period P&L
$427.00
Max Drawdown
-12.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
2 / 2
Best Trade
+5.69%
Worst Trade
-3.03%
Avg Trade Return
+1.41%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$66,387.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$427.00
Net P&L (after fees)
$427.00
Gross Return
+5.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $8,548.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $184.39 46 $8,481.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $178.80 46 $8,224.80 $8,268.62 $-257.14
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET $181.34 45 $8,160.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 11:20am ET $177.49 45 $7,987.05 $8,095.37 $-173.25
(-2.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:45am ET $168.93 47 $7,939.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET $178.54 47 $8,391.38 $8,547.04 +$451.67
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
4 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $182.33 46 $8,387.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $191.64 46 $8,815.44 $8,975.30 +$428.26
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,975.30
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,024.70
Total Return: -10.25%
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