Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-21 13:57:03

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.8
Unsettled
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Jun 21, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.1/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.3%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,712
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-21 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$2,819.68
Current Value
$2,750.98
Period P&L
$-215.22
Max Drawdown
-82.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
2 / 5
Best Trade
+5.16%
Worst Trade
-3.42%
Avg Trade Return
-0.78%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$39,644.23
Estimated Fees
$99.11
Gross P&L
$-215.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$-314.33
Gross Return
-7.63%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.15%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $2,819.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 8:30am ET $1.46 1,995 $2,919.78
🔴 SELL Mar 21, 2026 7:50pm ET $1.41 1,995 $2,819.98 $2,819.98 $-114.15
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held
2 🟢 BUY May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET $1.44 1,957 $2,819.98
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $1.52 1,957 $2,965.58 $2,965.58 +$131.14
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
3 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 4:40pm ET $1.50 1,977 $2,965.58
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1.45 1,977 $2,873.71 $2,873.71 $-106.47
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET $1.17 2,458 $2,873.71
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 1:40am ET $1.13 2,458 $2,787.22 $2,787.22 $-100.64
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET $1.10 2,523 $2,787.22
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $1.07 2,523 $2,702.35 $2,702.35 $-98.60
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 12:20am ET $1.07 2,531 $2,702.35
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 10:50pm ET $1.12 2,531 $2,837.90 $2,837.90 +$121.70
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $1.18 2,406 $2,837.90
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:40am ET $1.14 2,406 $2,750.98 $2,750.98 $-100.89
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $2,750.98
Net Profit/Loss: $-7,249.02
Total Return: -72.49%
Back to Danny Dip