AVAXUSD Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 50 trades in period
-7.90%
Last 6 Months Return
$292.74
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$243.76
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
25.3 oversold
20d Trend
-38.3%
5d Trend
-38.9%
EMA20 Dist
-40.8%
ATR%
15.6%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
1.0×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.4/10
Raw Quality
2.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 2.4
30-Day Momentum
42
+11.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.0
Conf: 0.93×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,044
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$243.76
Current Value
$292.74
Period P&L
$-19.25
Max Drawdown
-97.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
50
Winners / Losers
22 /
28
Best Trade
+7.80%
Worst Trade
-4.40%
Avg Trade Return
+0.44%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$23,738.09
Estimated Fees
$59.35
Gross P&L
$-19.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$-78.60
Gross Return
-7.90%
Net Return (after fees)
-32.24%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 AVAXUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 50 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $243.76 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $9.37 | 26 | $246.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $9.06 | 26 | $238.80 | $238.80 |
$-9.39 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 9:35pm ET | $8.89 | 27 | $238.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $8.62 | 27 | $231.55 | $231.55 |
$-8.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 7:05pm ET | $8.98 | 26 | $231.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:55pm ET | $8.70 | 26 | $224.33 | $224.33 |
$-8.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET | $9.04 | 25 | $224.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:20pm ET | $9.50 | 25 | $235.75 | $235.75 |
+$10.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $9.30 | 25 | $235.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $9.81 | 25 | $248.68 | $248.68 |
+$11.72 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET | $9.99 | 25 | $248.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $9.69 | 25 | $241.21 | $241.21 |
$-8.69 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.46 | 25 | $241.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 17, 2026 7:45pm ET | $9.07 | 25 | $231.27 | $231.27 |
$-11.13 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2026 4:40am ET | $8.83 | 26 | $231.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $9.29 | 26 | $243.32 | $243.32 |
+$10.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 12:15am ET | $8.77 | 28 | $243.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $8.42 | 28 | $233.61 | $233.61 |
$-10.90 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.4d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.41 | 28 | $233.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 6:55pm ET | $8.11 | 28 | $225.28 | $225.28 |
$-9.48 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 7:00pm ET | $8.12 | 28 | $225.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET | $7.80 | 28 | $216.40 | $216.40 |
$-9.98 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET | $7.83 | 28 | $216.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET | $7.54 | 28 | $208.39 | $208.39 |
$-9.08 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET | $7.65 | 27 | $208.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 12:05am ET | $8.05 | 27 | $219.29 | $219.29 |
+$9.83 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 11:00pm ET | $7.42 | 30 | $219.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:20am ET | $7.12 | 30 | $210.54 | $210.54 |
$-9.82 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:25am ET | $7.07 | 30 | $210.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $6.84 | 30 | $203.60 | $203.60 |
$-7.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $6.85 | 30 | $203.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $6.60 | 30 | $196.14 | $196.14 |
$-8.46 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $6.66 | 29 | $196.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 5:50pm ET | $7.00 | 29 | $206.21 | $206.21 |
+$9.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $6.78 | 30 | $206.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:25pm ET | $6.57 | 30 | $199.88 | $199.88 |
$-7.35 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 11:55pm ET | $6.52 | 31 | $199.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 12:30am ET | $6.26 | 31 | $191.97 | $191.97 |
$-8.89 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 12:35am ET | $6.27 | 31 | $191.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2026 2:05am ET | $6.63 | 31 | $203.05 | $203.05 |
+$10.09 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 6, 2026 6:35am ET | $6.60 | 31 | $203.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 5:10pm ET | $6.37 | 31 | $196.07 | $196.07 |
$-7.98 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $6.75 | 29 | $196.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:15am ET | $6.53 | 29 | $189.71 | $189.71 |
$-7.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 11:20am ET | $6.42 | 30 | $189.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:20pm ET | $6.15 | 30 | $181.73 | $181.73 |
$-8.91 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 19, 2026 12:30am ET | $6.09 | 30 | $181.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $5.82 | 30 | $173.73 | $173.73 |
$-8.89 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $5.80 | 30 | $173.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 20, 2026 3:25am ET | $6.09 | 30 | $182.45 | $182.45 |
+$7.83 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.7h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 2:30am ET | $6.09 | 30 | $182.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 4:10pm ET | $6.43 | 30 | $192.73 | $192.73 |
+$9.34 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $6.07 | 32 | $192.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 6:05pm ET | $6.43 | 32 | $204.00 | $204.00 |
+$10.27 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $6.15 | 33 | $204.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $6.46 | 33 | $214.52 | $214.52 |
+$9.48 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:05pm ET | $6.41 | 33 | $214.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 2:50am ET | $6.74 | 33 | $225.63 | $225.63 |
+$10.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2026 8:05pm ET | $6.50 | 35 | $225.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $6.25 | 35 | $217.16 | $217.16 |
$-9.58 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 2:15pm ET | $6.22 | 35 | $217.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2026 10:15am ET | $6.55 | 35 | $228.46 | $228.46 |
+$10.19 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.05 | 38 | $228.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 2, 2026 12:55am ET | $6.52 | 38 | $246.28 | $246.28 |
+$16.64 (+7.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.1h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 6:05am ET | $6.40 | 38 | $246.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $6.17 | 38 | $237.28 | $237.28 |
$-10.21 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $6.21 | 38 | $237.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 1:55am ET | $6.54 | 38 | $249.54 | $249.54 |
+$11.04 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 15, 2026 8:05pm ET | $6.25 | 40 | $249.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $6.66 | 40 | $265.80 | $265.80 |
+$14.97 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 5:10am ET | $7.45 | 36 | $265.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 6:10pm ET | $7.83 | 36 | $279.29 | $279.29 |
+$12.13 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET | $7.88 | 35 | $279.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 1:45am ET | $7.63 | 35 | $270.36 | $270.36 |
$-10.31 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:50am ET | $7.73 | 35 | $270.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 4:35am ET | $7.49 | 35 | $261.83 | $261.83 |
$-9.86 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 5:05am ET | $7.47 | 35 | $261.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $7.23 | 35 | $253.35 | $253.35 |
$-9.77 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 30, 2026 7:40pm ET | $7.10 | 36 | $253.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $7.47 | 36 | $266.37 | $266.37 |
+$11.72 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:50pm ET | $7.21 | 37 | $266.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 4:40am ET | $7.59 | 37 | $280.37 | $280.37 |
+$12.63 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 8:25am ET | $9.06 | 31 | $280.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2026 12:15pm ET | $9.59 | 31 | $296.64 | $296.64 |
+$14.83 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 8:50pm ET | $10.49 | 28 | $296.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2026 9:05pm ET | $10.03 | 28 | $283.80 | $283.80 |
$-14.29 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 9:10pm ET | $9.98 | 28 | $283.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2026 10:20pm ET | $9.68 | 28 | $275.21 | $275.21 |
$-9.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 19, 2026 10:25pm ET | $9.67 | 28 | $275.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 20, 2026 7:55am ET | $10.31 | 28 | $293.57 | $293.57 |
+$16.94 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.5h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $11.01 | 27 | $293.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 20, 2026 8:15pm ET | $11.58 | 27 | $308.90 | $308.90 |
+$13.83 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 20, 2026 9:40pm ET | $11.37 | 27 | $308.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 3:35am ET | $10.99 | 27 | $298.60 | $298.60 |
$-11.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 1:00am ET | $10.77 | 28 | $298.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 7:05pm ET | $11.32 | 28 | $313.99 | $313.99 |
+$13.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 8:05am ET | $10.86 | 29 | $313.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $10.47 | 29 | $302.57 | $302.57 |
$-12.96 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $10.37 | 29 | $302.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 5:35am ET | $10.04 | 29 | $292.74 | $292.74 |
$-11.32 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$292.74
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,707.26
Total Return:
-97.07%