Compendium › Danny Dip › LTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 17 trades in period

-5.27%
Last 6 Months Return
$3,458.06
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$3,286.98
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:24:24

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.8 oversold
20d Trend
-38.7%
5d Trend
-38.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.1%
ATR%
12.4%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 95%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 5.5/100
× Confidence 0.95 = 5.2

30-Day Momentum

16
+4.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 24.3 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (95%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,045
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$3,286.98
Current Value
$3,458.06
Period P&L
$-173.17
Max Drawdown
-84.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
7 / 10
Best Trade
+6.27%
Worst Trade
-3.95%
Avg Trade Return
+0.25%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$103,959.49
Estimated Fees
$259.90
Gross P&L
$-173.17
Net P&L (after fees)
$-433.07
Gross Return
-5.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.18%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,286.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 10, 2026 4:50pm ET $58.06 58 $3,371.31 — — —
🔴 SELL May 16, 2026 2:50am ET $56.14 58 $3,259.82 $3,259.82 $-128.06
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.4d held
2 🟢 BUY May 17, 2026 7:50pm ET $54.13 60 $3,259.82 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 7:50pm ET $52.45 60 $3,158.65 $3,158.65 $-117.22
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 11:35am ET $47.64 66 $3,158.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:25pm ET $45.84 66 $3,039.31 $3,039.31 $-134.84
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30pm ET $45.86 66 $3,039.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $44.17 66 $2,927.31 $2,927.31 $-126.92
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET $44.84 65 $2,927.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:25am ET $43.07 65 $2,811.76 $2,811.76 $-129.90
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:30am ET $43.21 65 $2,811.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2026 12:20am ET $41.57 65 $2,705.04 $2,705.04 $-120.51
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 6, 2026 12:25am ET $41.61 65 $2,705.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 5:25pm ET $43.71 65 $2,841.56 $2,841.56 +$122.65
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 11:50am ET $41.89 68 $2,841.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $40.63 68 $2,756.09 $2,756.09 $-99.46
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:45pm ET $39.53 70 $2,756.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 1:00am ET $41.55 70 $2,896.93 $2,896.93 +$126.70
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET $39.77 73 $2,896.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 3:10am ET $41.83 73 $3,046.98 $3,046.98 +$135.19
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 5:20am ET $49.88 61 $3,046.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 5:05pm ET $52.45 61 $3,203.97 $3,203.97 +$141.36
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.8h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 1:10am ET $52.95 61 $3,203.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 4:30am ET $51.36 61 $3,107.76 $3,107.76 $-111.99
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Sep 6, 2026 9:40pm ET $54.38 57 $3,107.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 7, 2026 8:45am ET $57.65 57 $3,294.64 $3,294.64 +$170.87
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
11.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 7, 2026 10:05am ET $57.28 58 $3,294.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 7, 2026 11:45am ET $55.29 58 $3,180.18 $3,180.18 $-130.65
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 7, 2026 11:50am ET $55.45 57 $3,180.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 11:55pm ET $53.72 57 $3,080.96 $3,080.96 $-114.87
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 10:15am ET $60.68 51 $3,080.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:40pm ET $64.09 51 $3,254.10 $3,254.10 +$157.30
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.4h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 24, 2026 5:35am ET $66.37 49 $3,254.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET $70.53 49 $3,458.06 $3,458.06 +$187.18
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,458.06
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,541.94
Total Return: -65.42%
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