MARA Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 57 trades in period
-13.41%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,127.95
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$8,232.04
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
4.6/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.5
30-Day Momentum
4
-6.7%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7
Conf: 0.78×
Steady (+0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,232.04
Current Value
$7,127.95
Period P&L
$-1,104.04
Max Drawdown
-46.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
57
Winners / Losers
21 /
36
Best Trade
+9.15%
Worst Trade
-5.66%
Avg Trade Return
-0.15%
Avg Hold Time
22h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,060,929.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,104.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,104.04
Gross Return
-13.41%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.41%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 57 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $8,232.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $8.22 | 1,001 | $8,228.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.97 | 1,001 | $8,981.47 | $8,985.24 |
+$753.25 (+9.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.29 | 1,083 | $8,978.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.00 | 1,083 | $8,664.00 | $8,671.17 |
$-314.07 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $7.92 | 1,094 | $8,667.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $7.66 | 1,094 | $8,380.92 | $8,384.65 |
$-286.52 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 1,076 | $8,382.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 1,076 | $8,882.38 | $8,884.99 |
+$500.34 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.67 | 1,024 | $8,878.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.39 | 1,024 | $8,591.26 | $8,598.17 |
$-286.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $9.43 | 911 | $8,590.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $9.92 | 911 | $9,035.30 | $9,042.74 |
+$444.57 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:40pm ET | $9.40 | 961 | $9,033.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 10:35am ET | $9.95 | 961 | $9,562.91 | $9,572.16 |
+$529.42 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.71 | 817 | $9,567.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.30 | 817 | $9,235.12 | $9,240.21 |
$-331.95 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.35 | 814 | $9,238.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.92 | 814 | $9,702.88 | $9,704.35 |
+$464.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $11.78 | 823 | $9,698.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $11.41 | 823 | $9,394.54 | $9,399.92 |
$-304.43 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $11.18 | 840 | $9,391.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 840 | $9,046.80 | $9,055.60 |
$-344.32 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.65 | 850 | $9,052.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $10.31 | 850 | $8,759.25 | $8,762.35 |
$-293.25 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.38 | 769 | $8,751.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 11:20am ET | $11.99 | 769 | $9,224.15 | $9,235.21 |
+$472.86 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $11.80 | 782 | $9,227.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $11.44 | 782 | $8,949.99 | $8,957.60 |
$-277.61 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $12.43 | 720 | $8,949.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 3:10pm ET | $13.10 | 720 | $9,428.40 | $9,436.40 |
+$478.80 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.30 | 767 | $9,433.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $13.02 | 767 | $9,990.17 | $9,992.63 |
+$556.23 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.83 | 778 | $9,981.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $12.37 | 778 | $9,623.86 | $9,634.75 |
$-357.88 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $12.65 | 761 | $9,626.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:15am ET | $13.31 | 761 | $10,130.66 | $10,138.76 |
+$504.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:15am ET | $12.15 | 834 | $10,128.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.63 | 834 | $9,695.25 | $9,705.08 |
$-433.68 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:35am ET | $11.64 | 834 | $9,703.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $12.27 | 834 | $10,233.18 | $10,234.67 |
+$529.59 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $13.98 | 732 | $10,233.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.69 | 732 | $10,756.74 | $10,758.05 |
+$523.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 1:55pm ET | $14.36 | 748 | $10,745.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.83 | 748 | $10,344.84 | $10,357.87 |
$-400.18 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.35 | 775 | $10,350.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $14.03 | 775 | $10,873.17 | $10,880.92 |
+$523.05 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $13.79 | 789 | $10,880.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $13.34 | 789 | $10,525.26 | $10,525.87 |
$-355.05 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $12.94 | 813 | $10,518.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 3:35pm ET | $13.67 | 813 | $11,113.71 | $11,120.99 |
+$595.12 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 11:15am ET | $14.66 | 758 | $11,112.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $14.22 | 758 | $10,778.76 | $10,787.47 |
$-333.52 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.82 | 681 | $10,773.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 12:15pm ET | $15.32 | 681 | $10,433.06 | $10,447.11 |
$-340.36 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.31 | 729 | $10,435.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:35pm ET | $13.77 | 729 | $10,034.69 | $10,046.16 |
$-400.95 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.46 | 746 | $10,041.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 10:15am ET | $14.24 | 746 | $10,623.04 | $10,628.04 |
+$581.88 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET | $13.29 | 799 | $10,618.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $13.98 | 799 | $11,166.03 | $11,175.36 |
+$547.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.41 | 833 | $11,170.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $12.79 | 833 | $10,654.15 | $10,658.98 |
$-516.38 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $12.94 | 823 | $10,653.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $12.56 | 823 | $10,333.34 | $10,338.59 |
$-320.39 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.78 | 877 | $10,331.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.78 | 877 | $11,208.06 | $11,215.59 |
+$877.00 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.16 | 852 | $11,212.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:55am ET | $12.69 | 852 | $10,816.14 | $10,819.41 |
$-396.18 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $12.22 | 885 | $10,810.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $11.83 | 885 | $10,468.67 | $10,477.80 |
$-341.61 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $11.89 | 881 | $10,475.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $11.51 | 881 | $10,140.66 | $10,143.37 |
$-334.43 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:30pm ET | $12.34 | 822 | $10,139.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.92 | 822 | $9,798.24 | $9,802.24 |
$-341.13 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $12.51 | 783 | $9,791.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.08 | 783 | $9,458.64 | $9,469.46 |
$-332.78 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.89 | 869 | $9,463.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $11.48 | 869 | $9,971.78 | $9,977.83 |
+$508.37 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 11:30am ET | $10.53 | 947 | $9,976.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 3:40pm ET | $10.11 | 947 | $9,578.90 | $9,580.09 |
$-397.74 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.57 | 827 | $9,572.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $11.10 | 827 | $9,183.83 | $9,191.40 |
$-388.69 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.45 | 802 | $9,183.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.94 | 802 | $8,773.88 | $8,782.22 |
$-409.18 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.45 | 840 | $8,778.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.86 | 840 | $8,281.56 | $8,285.78 |
$-496.44 (-5.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $9.66 | 857 | $8,278.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.16 | 857 | $8,706.26 | $8,713.42 |
+$427.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.46 | 921 | $8,712.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.01 | 921 | $8,298.21 | $8,298.97 |
$-414.45 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.45 | 878 | $8,297.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.11 | 878 | $8,002.97 | $8,004.84 |
$-294.13 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:25pm ET | $9.57 | 836 | $8,004.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.24 | 836 | $8,560.64 | $8,560.78 |
+$555.94 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.1h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $11.81 | 724 | $8,554.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.30 | 724 | $8,177.58 | $8,184.30 |
$-376.48 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 11:00am ET | $11.55 | 708 | $8,173.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $11.13 | 708 | $7,881.39 | $7,891.83 |
$-292.47 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.58 | 681 | $7,885.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 11:40am ET | $11.22 | 681 | $7,637.42 | $7,643.27 |
$-248.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 12:35pm ET | $11.88 | 643 | $7,635.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.40 | 643 | $7,330.14 | $7,337.78 |
$-305.49 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $10.38 | 707 | $7,335.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.03 | 707 | $7,091.21 | $7,093.86 |
$-243.92 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $11.44 | 620 | $7,092.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 2:25pm ET | $12.02 | 620 | $7,449.30 | $7,450.36 |
+$356.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $11.57 | 643 | $7,439.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $12.24 | 643 | $7,869.55 | $7,880.40 |
+$430.04 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:00am ET | $11.53 | 683 | $7,878.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $11.13 | 683 | $7,598.38 | $7,600.37 |
$-280.03 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $11.16 | 680 | $7,592.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $10.82 | 680 | $7,357.60 | $7,365.77 |
$-234.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 57 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $13.38 | 550 | $7,360.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $12.95 | 550 | $7,122.44 | $7,127.95 |
$-237.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,127.95
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,872.05
Total Return:
-28.72%