MRNA Danny Dip's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 46 trades in period
+90.80%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,918.72
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$6,770.67
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
18
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
1.2/35
Total Return
11.4/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
18.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 18.4
30-Day Momentum
32
+9.8%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 39.6
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$6,770.67
Current Value
$12,918.72
Period P&L
$6,148.05
Max Drawdown
-66.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.16
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
20 /
26
Best Trade
+86.85%
Worst Trade
-6.48%
Avg Trade Return
+2.14%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$722,268.05
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,148.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,148.05
Gross Return
+90.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+90.80%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $6,770.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.60 | 127 | $6,426.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $53.15 | 127 | $6,749.42 | $6,780.42 |
+$323.22 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $51.92 | 130 | $6,749.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $50.17 | 130 | $6,522.10 | $6,552.92 |
$-227.50 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:00pm ET | $48.14 | 136 | $6,547.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 2:30pm ET | $50.59 | 136 | $6,880.24 | $6,885.74 |
+$332.82 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $50.01 | 137 | $6,851.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 137 | $6,591.34 | $6,625.73 |
$-260.01 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.64 | 130 | $6,583.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.76 | 130 | $6,988.80 | $7,031.33 |
+$405.60 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $53.68 | 130 | $6,978.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.96 | 130 | $6,754.98 | $6,807.91 |
$-223.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET | $49.19 | 138 | $6,788.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.70 | 138 | $6,582.90 | $6,601.90 |
$-206.01 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $45.15 | 146 | $6,591.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $47.74 | 146 | $6,970.04 | $6,980.77 |
+$378.87 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $44.28 | 157 | $6,951.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.58 | 157 | $7,313.06 | $7,341.87 |
+$361.10 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 10:05am ET | $49.96 | 146 | $7,294.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:40am ET | $48.30 | 146 | $7,051.80 | $7,099.51 |
$-242.36 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 11:50am ET | $54.38 | 130 | $7,069.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 12:50pm ET | $57.32 | 130 | $7,451.60 | $7,481.45 |
+$381.94 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:50pm ET | $54.28 | 137 | $7,436.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:55pm ET | $52.32 | 137 | $7,167.32 | $7,212.41 |
$-269.04 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.87 | 136 | $7,190.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.17 | 136 | $6,958.44 | $6,980.39 |
$-232.02 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $49.19 | 141 | $6,935.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.69 | 141 | $6,724.29 | $6,768.89 |
$-211.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $46.92 | 144 | $6,757.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $45.06 | 144 | $6,488.64 | $6,500.33 |
$-268.56 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $44.13 | 147 | $6,487.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $46.54 | 147 | $6,841.38 | $6,853.87 |
+$353.54 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $50.08 | 136 | $6,810.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $48.50 | 136 | $6,596.00 | $6,638.99 |
$-214.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:05pm ET | $47.11 | 140 | $6,595.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $45.59 | 140 | $6,382.60 | $6,426.19 |
$-212.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $55.75 | 115 | $6,411.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 11:50am ET | $58.55 | 115 | $6,733.23 | $6,748.17 |
+$321.98 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.31 | 110 | $6,743.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.23 | 110 | $6,515.29 | $6,519.91 |
$-228.26 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:15am ET | $61.85 | 105 | $6,494.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $59.95 | 105 | $6,294.75 | $6,320.41 |
$-199.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $66.70 | 94 | $6,269.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.04 | 94 | $6,583.76 | $6,634.37 |
+$313.96 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $78.50 | 84 | $6,594.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $82.68 | 84 | $6,945.12 | $6,985.49 |
+$351.12 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $79.20 | 88 | $6,969.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.84 | 88 | $6,673.92 | $6,689.81 |
$-295.68 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.45 | 91 | $6,683.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $70.72 | 91 | $6,435.97 | $6,442.06 |
$-247.75 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $66.00 | 97 | $6,402.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $69.37 | 97 | $6,728.90 | $6,768.96 |
+$326.90 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $65.73 | 102 | $6,704.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $63.60 | 102 | $6,487.20 | $6,551.70 |
$-217.26 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $59.34 | 110 | $6,527.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.18 | 110 | $6,289.80 | $6,313.75 |
$-237.95 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $55.12 | 114 | $6,283.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $53.43 | 114 | $6,091.02 | $6,121.10 |
$-192.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $56.58 | 108 | $6,111.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.92 | 108 | $5,715.36 | $5,725.28 |
$-395.82 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:00am ET | $56.27 | 101 | $5,683.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $59.15 | 101 | $5,974.15 | $6,016.16 |
+$290.88 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 10:20am ET | $55.57 | 108 | $6,001.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.75 | 108 | $5,805.00 | $5,819.60 |
$-196.56 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:25am ET | $59.26 | 98 | $5,807.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 11:00am ET | $62.33 | 98 | $6,107.85 | $6,119.98 |
+$300.38 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.71 | 99 | $6,109.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:20am ET | $64.87 | 99 | $6,422.15 | $6,432.84 |
+$312.86 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $63.21 | 101 | $6,383.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $118.10 | 101 | $11,928.04 | $11,977.17 |
+$5,544.33 (+86.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.60 | 78 | $11,902.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.05 | 78 | $11,469.78 | $11,544.14 |
$-433.03 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:50am ET | $152.41 | 75 | $11,430.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $147.77 | 75 | $11,082.75 | $11,196.23 |
$-347.91 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $137.64 | 81 | $11,148.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $147.38 | 81 | $11,937.77 | $11,985.28 |
+$789.05 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.50 | 79 | $11,889.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $145.83 | 79 | $11,520.88 | $11,616.66 |
$-368.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $139.39 | 83 | $11,569.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $134.80 | 83 | $11,188.40 | $11,236.01 |
$-380.65 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 2:15pm ET | $139.17 | 80 | $11,133.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $146.20 | 80 | $11,695.61 | $11,798.02 |
+$562.01 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $148.01 | 79 | $11,692.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $143.21 | 79 | $11,313.98 | $11,419.51 |
$-378.51 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $137.68 | 82 | $11,290.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $131.29 | 82 | $10,765.37 | $10,894.86 |
$-524.65 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.88 | 76 | $10,858.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.56 | 76 | $11,594.56 | $11,630.54 |
+$735.68 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $169.48 | 68 | $11,524.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:10am ET | $179.15 | 68 | $12,181.86 | $12,287.76 |
+$657.22 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $185.40 | 66 | $12,236.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $194.96 | 66 | $12,867.36 | $12,918.72 |
+$630.96 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,918.72
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,918.72
Total Return:
+29.19%